Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Here are the results then:
On removing Slovakia and Kazak this is how it would have looked. Both leagues are now in the red.
6/9 and more than likely around a 12pt loss.
In reality it was 6/11. A truly shocking day and the worst since I started tracking these last Dec.
There was also thankfully a FHG in Kazak. The leagues I am removing for SHG are not being removed for FHG at present as there aren't many of these anyway and they are ticking along nicely.
ACTUAL LOSS - £32.45
This month is now in the hole for about £40.00. I'm not going to check exacts at the moment but I can't believe another day like that will be along for a while. If it does then I'll have to take it on the chin, adjust stake and go again.
The data remains consistent and there's almost 1000 qualifiers from 2000 raw pieces of data.
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I will say one thing. As I start to update the days results it seems from the tweaks I'd already made that I missed a few more stinkers. Could have been MUCH worse!!!
It's very telling just how bad the raw data has been today as well. It runs along at 84% but today I've just recorded my 6th blank in row! Totally new scenario in 2K worth of matches now.
There's Aurora anyway 2-0 so not completely broken haha!
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@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
Whats the bank after today?
Don't mate. Not a good day haha! I'll bounce back. Some leagues are being removed. Need to stay consistent.
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Whats the bank after today?
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I thought that was it, however Betfair now have a market for Aurora in Bolivia. It was always one of the potentials. Loads of data on Bolivia. No reason to leave it on the table.
Lay under 1.5 @ 6.0
Currently 1-0 HT
Stake £1.97This loses and the stake is re-evaluated for tomorrow.
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I am however completely stopping tracking the other multi angle project for now. People were right. It's too much work and too complicated, especially when I'm tracking all the other stuff now.
If I want to explore this or similar again I simply need to look at the data.
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I was waiting on Utrecht as a potential but at 1-2 that's gone now. So the day is finished. It would always have been a bad day but I'm not sure it needed to be this bad.
The plan was always another £5 donation to the bank this week but after today I'm putting in £10 as a one off. No way my 900+ selections are crap.
Just teething probs that I need to resolve.
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@dan-mackinnon said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer you’ve done a lot of trades so your SR must be pretty accurate. You could look on today as getting your losses out the way and you’ll get on a winning streak next week. If it’s below the average now, and there’s no notable changes then it’s safe to assume the variance will go the other way and you’ll win more than expected.
Without doubt but there are some leagues with either not enough data or potentially dodgy. Slovakia and Kazaks conform to this.
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@richard-latimer you’ve done a lot of trades so your SR must be pretty accurate. You could look on today as getting your losses out the way and you’ll get on a winning streak next week. If it’s below the average now, and there’s no notable changes then it’s safe to assume the variance will go the other way and you’ll win more than expected.
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I'm one loss away from re-valculating stake downwards. Did not see this coming.
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There it is. Another blank in Mechelen. Think fans being in the stadiums is working the opposite for me haha! What a day!
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@dan-mackinnon said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer When you look at today/ the week do the results sit in line with your SR? When you hitting winning runs it’s easy to forget about the inevitable losses. We all know they have to come at some point, was it a poor day or just variance kicking in?
Not really. Worst day was 4 losses. Happened once since Dec. Going to be 5 here.
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Looks like I'm heading for a 5th loss here. Can't buy a SHG today!
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@richard-latimer When you look at today/ the week do the results sit in line with your SR? When you hitting winning runs it’s easy to forget about the inevitable losses. We all know they have to come at some point, was it a poor day or just variance kicking in?
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Pig's ear of a day here but with losses in Kazak, Bundesliga 2, Ger Regionalliga and Slovakia I think it's time to pay more attention to individual leagues.
Kazak had been ok up until today and it's only 1 loss but time to monitor until the league gets back in the green.
Still think Regionalliga ok and despite this loss p/l still looks ok. Was only the 2nd 2-1 loss in well over 50 matches.
Bundesliga 2 has been ok also and that was influenced by VAR.
Slovakia another to monitor until back in the green.
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Lay under 2.5 Oostende @ 5.6
Currently 2-0 HT
Stake £1.97 -
Lay under 1.5 QPR @ 5.8
Currently 1-1
Stake £1.97 -
No more talking....
Lay under 2.5 Raufoss @ 6.6
Currently 2-0 HT
Stake £1.97 -
Lay under 1.5 Steinbach @ 5.2
Currently 1-0 HT
Stake £1.97 -
Lay under 3.5 Saarbrucken @ 5.3
Currently 2-1 HT
Stake £1.97
