Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

Liefering qualifies as a slight outlier. Leaving unmatched lay @ 4.2

[Richard Latimer]

@martin said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge - Total Deposits £194.42 - Current Bank £204.21 (+£42.94 for Oct):

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge - Total Deposits £194.42 - Current Bank £204.21 (+£42.94 for Oct):

For anyone who wants to know why my updates take so long by the way, it's because I am collecting and storing so much data on each game and not just the games that qualify or the leagues I am currently trading.

nice work, are you spotting some good trends on this? I'm doing something similar with the ratings at the moment.

I can spot the potential pitfalls for no goals and hence a reverse to the system could be possible if I wanted to go that way in time. Plus I'm still tracking FHG.

But the beauty is if I ever do want to scan through the data for something else I can.

[Martin]

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge - Total Deposits £194.42 - Current Bank £204.21 (+£42.94 for Oct):

For anyone who wants to know why my updates take so long by the way, it's because I am collecting and storing so much data on each game and not just the games that qualify or the leagues I am currently trading.

nice work, are you spotting some good trends on this? I'm doing something similar with the ratings at the moment.

[Richard Latimer]

Will post up Sat in the morning. Nothing until 10:30 anyway.

[Richard Latimer]

Helsingor from a league I have nowhere near enough data on yet.
Volendam the outlier I missed when trying for lower price as already mentioned.

[Richard Latimer]

For anyone who wants to know why my updates take so long by the way, it's because I am collecting and storing so much data on each game and not just the games that qualify or the leagues I am currently trading.

[Martin]

@richard-latimer nice work!

[Richard Latimer]

I was planning to post my trades tonight to show what I meant about going for the outliers at a lower price. In any case the only one missed by minutes as mentioned to Martin above. +£7.38 tonight and bank back up to £210.64

[Richard Latimer]

@martin said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge - Total Deposits £194.42 - Current Bank £204.21 (+£42.94 for Oct):

@richard-latimer are these the lower German ones? I tend to leave them alone, only really interested in top two divs unless it's in England

Yeah they are but for the most part they go inplay, liquidity is ok starting out (maybe not for your level) and the stats are quite consistent.

Nothing in it tonight anyway but a decent night nonetheless. 3/3, 4/4 with outliers although goal came before I was matched.

[Martin]

@richard-latimer are these the lower German ones? I tend to leave them alone, only really interested in top two divs unless it's in England

[Richard Latimer]

The game in Regional Liga West is a mistake. That league on hold for now.

[Richard Latimer]

One more thing on the outliers. As much as you are talking about one or 2 criteria with perhaps less than 10 selections reaching the exact when you put alll scorelines together and all criterias the outliers are acutally accounting for a hell of alot of selections.

To continue to ignore them all is not sensible.

[Richard Latimer]

I won't go into too much at the moment but I had an idea regarding the outliers.

a)I'm not really keen on turning this whole thing on it's head and aiming for a random entry point 2nd half for everything
b)The outliers are qualifying, they are just on the edge where the data hasn't reached enough yet. This is only something because I'm tracking both top and bottom range on all criteria.

So....

My plan is to keep the non outliers the same. I will enter at HT as normal if the match scoreline fits required criteria.

For outliers only I will take a more cautious view and place my lay price at half the available HT odds leaving unmatched. This will normally match anywhere between 55-65 mins but usually closer to the 60 minute mark.

If they almost qualify then they didn't qualify and I move on. That one is very simple. No change.

[Richard Latimer]

While I'm not wishing to make out a loss of £38.00 is good it must be put into perspective. When I first started this I lost £30 in one day from a MUCH lower bank. Percentage wise this is better. It's an improvement haha!

[Richard Latimer]

Finally managed to update Sunday which is fine as keeps me busy:

First thing I'll do is get through the ones no longer included on my list of qualifiers. Starting with St. Gallen, I could perhaps have avoided this one as while not an outlier the stats I had were borderline on averages as low as 0.7 Home SHG on 0-1. They are for most, either that or they don't qualify. The exception so far appears to be 2-0.

Then later in the day a 1-1 dud in German Regionalliga West. The league is on pause. It had started well, I had 10 straight wins there but it's now on the tracking list until I'm happy. I can find no other reason than league to boycott this one.

Feyenoord not scoring a 5th or conceding a first was unexpected and all my stats point to this being bang in the middle. Right in the sweet spot.

Bodo was interrupted for a blizzard which concerned me but looking at the highlights as I did today on sofascore, the weather when they resumed was perfectly ok and there many big chances missed.

Of the winners I didn't take Deinz in Belgian 2 based purely on wanting to see more from that league.
Teutonia and Oldenburg the same in Germany
Bulgaria a league thing again as need more data.
Sturm Graz, waiting on more data for an initially ailing Austria
Oostende a slight outlier

I must admit to cheating a little at the end and hitting Genoa even though this could be considered a small outlier.

But this brings me to my next thing. If the system is prone to hiccups while I iron out some issues these will be less apparent at lower odds if I can still maintain a high s/r as I believe I could.

So I'm thinking to include the outliers while qualify BUT to look at overall goal times and try to optimise my entry point.

This wouldn't be done with software so it would be a case of me reducing HT odds by a percentage where I believe the price will be at a certain point in the game. Not foolproof by any means but sometimes it would result in entering earlier and sometimes a little later. Hopefully this would even out over time.

Anyway this is the thing to work on next.

Before I go, loss for Sunday was -£38.69

[Richard Latimer]

I've used this horrible time to reach out to another of my best mates on fb who I hadn't seen for years and glad I did. It's true that life really is too short and you NEVER know what's round the corner.

This guy kissed his girlfriend good night and went to sleep. He woke up in the middle of the night gasping for air and pretty much died there and then. They tried to revive him for an hour and pronounced him dead shortly after arriving at the hospital.

He was fit and healthy when I saw him a couple of months back.

[Richard Latimer]

@keith-anderson said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge - Total Deposits £194.42 - Current Bank £204.21 (+£42.94 for Oct):

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge - Total Deposits £194.42 - Current Bank £204.21 (+£42.94 for Oct):

My updating has taken a hit as I just found out my best mate from school who I'd only just reconnected with is somehow dead. Life f*****g sucks!!

My condolences, @Richard-Latimer

May his memory forever be a blessing. Baruch dayan ha'emet

Thanks Keith

[Richard Latimer]

@james-everard said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge - Total Deposits £194.42 - Current Bank £204.21 (+£42.94 for Oct):

@richard-latimer Sorry to hear your news. Thoughts are with you

Cheers James

[james everard]

@richard-latimer Sorry to hear your news. Thoughts are with you

[Akiva Anderson]

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge - Total Deposits £194.42 - Current Bank £204.21 (+£42.94 for Oct):

My updating has taken a hit as I just found out my best mate from school who I'd only just reconnected with is somehow dead. Life f*****g sucks!!

My condolences, @Richard-Latimer

May his memory forever be a blessing. Baruch dayan ha'emet