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Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved Football Trading
5.5k Posts 81 Posters 436.5k Views
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #5441

    Great day for FHG which takes things just about back into the green. However......you can't keep a good tinkerman down and true to form I've been looking at something new. Along the same lines as backing teams I have been looking at over/under 2.5 markets with a view to either greening up at ht 2 goals scored, redding out or letting things play on depending on xG looking at inplay stats.

    I only have 4 days data so far and from this there has been small profit. Again though once more what I thought would happen isn't quite happening so I'm tracking these 2 ways now.

    1. 3 goals scored before HT it's a win. Green up on 2 goals, trade out if xG under 2 goals for FH (counting all shots off target as 10% chance while my methods on the rest are already explained above). Otherwise let it run.

    2. 3 goals scored before HT again it's obviously a win. 2 goals scored, let it play out. less than 2 goals trade/red out.

    Sheet is fully updated for tomorrow with my new strats.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #5442

    Thanks @Ryan-Carruthers

    So the only back ended 0-0 at ht and inplay stats were not conclusive as to who was on top (sot equal but no areas of pitch given) so recorded the price to trade out.

    Interestingly enough they did indeed go on to win and quite easily in the end. This is the 6th such win with only 2 from the games traded out at a loss going on to draw or lose.

    With that in mind I've started tracking both ways of playing these.

    The first based on xG at ht will always trade out HT if 1 or more goals to the good. Subsequent decisions will be based on xG and level of dominance shown in FH.

    2nd way is rather more simple and presently more lucrative (however it's entirely possible things will level out with variance). Trade out if 1 or more goals up. For all other eventualities leave to run.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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  • RyanR Offline
    RyanR Offline
    Ryan
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #5443

    @richard-latimer get why people negatively review it the first bit is pretty bland but the principle of the process is alright and it’s like £7 as well I think?

    Founder of BTC - Pro Trader - Main Sports Tennis and Football

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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #5444

    Have you read it too @John-Folan? I put so much stock in reviews these days and overall it's how I avoid disappointment haha!! I won't touch a hotel without the tripadvisor seal of approval.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    RyanR 1 Reply Last reply
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  • John FolanJ Offline
    John FolanJ Offline
    John Folan
    wrote on last edited by
    #5445

    Reviews are bollocks.

    Read the first post on both threads.

    Horse Trading Resources
    https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/1111/john-s-horse-trading-resources

    BfBotmanager
    https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2915/bfbotmanager-automation-discussion

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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #5446

    Gets very poor reviews.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #5447

    Sounds interesting @Ryan-Carruthers . Might add that to my amazon wishlist.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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  • RyanR Offline
    RyanR Offline
    Ryan
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #5448

    @richard-latimer A book by a pro gambler who has been very successful with the asian handicap models, that well in fact he has bought two football teams and applied his model to the way they pick players its a cracking book. Section one did bore me, going back through the actual method now to see if I can build a method with BTC stats to see what I can create to replicate it.

    Founder of BTC - Pro Trader - Main Sports Tennis and Football

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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #5449

    Also Famalicao scored FHG.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #5450

    I'm looking after kids all day every day at present so completely missed the first team back which I know would have been a loss of some description and most probably a trade out at ht. Also though betfair went down so may have been a full loss if unable to trade out there.

    Numancia were drawing at ht but looked good for win and so the decision would have been stay in. As it happens they won. Not recording either loss or win though as cannot do so accurately. I'll move on to tomorrow.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #5451

    No what is it @Ryan-Carruthers?

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    RyanR 1 Reply Last reply
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  • RyanR Offline
    RyanR Offline
    Ryan
    wrote on last edited by Ryan
    #5452

    I love this, @Richard-Latimer have you read the football code?

    Founder of BTC - Pro Trader - Main Sports Tennis and Football

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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #5453

    2 more added for FHG tomorrow and 2 more team backs to monitor.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #5454

    Forgot to update today although mainly this was because of the lack of anything real to update. Monaco were a FHG but that's been poor recently. PSG would have been a team back but at those odds no way!

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #5455

    FHG strat underwhelming once more. Masry actually won in the team backs but were unfortunately losing at ht and not looking too great. Porto odds too low.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #5456

    All updated

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #5457

    Friday was a small loss on the team backs and not so great for first half goals. Would have been hoping for a comeback over the weekend but been away for an early Christmas break drinking and eating with family so wasn't to be.

    In the process of looking at Monday's.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #5458

    Team backs also now updated for tomorrow.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #5459

    Loads of potential for tomorrow. Let's see what happens. Sheet updated with FHG's.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #5460

    Both Saudi games didn't go inplay but Ajax had a couple of FHG.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
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