Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Couldn't resist!
Essentially it's what I've been doing over on the facebook page so if you've been following you'll know the deal by now.
There's official and monitored and the whole damn thing is fluid right now although I'm getting closer to what I feel will be the final product.
In any case it's all detailed on the attached sheet:
Will update for tomorrow asap
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=v8arsy1si4v0651ser69coa45&st=4r1o63le&dl=0 -
Hello Richard,
So, according to your criteria, this weekend you will only be playing
Portadown Cliftonville
Real Sociedad Atl. Madrid
and not
Espanyol Barcelona
Lille Rennes
Inter Bologna
Is that correct? -
Updated Lay Under 1.5 for the next couple of days:
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2 profitable trades to finish what has been a small losing year. But the system I have developed looks to be gold.
It only falters around the edges.
The trick must be to operate within those edges and try to stay away from the very edge of what works until those edges become more pronounced.
The more selections around those edges the more confident I can be of what works and what simply doesn't.
The other 3 systems I'm working on I will just continue to do so in the background.
Happy new year everyone. And a big f**k you to 2025.
2025 can suck a f**k!!!
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@Alex-Rendell that's curious but it sure aligns with contrary thinking and what they would call sharps in the states.
Well today's looks to have possibly shortened slightly.
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@Richard-Latimer yeah fair point in terms of lack of volume & liquidity - I've only started tracking it myself over the last 2-3 months but have noticed a stark difference; systems that look for goals perform far better when the over 2.5 odds (our "benchmark" for goal probability) have dropped by at least 2 ticks from the morning price (taken manually at 7-8am and then compared to odds 15 mins pre-kick off). Compare this to when the odds haven't moved at all or have drifted, where the strike rate and returns are far lower. Food for thought and something I thought you might want to start tracking if you have the time.
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@Alex-Rendell AM prices on some leagues have way less liquidity as well.
It's harder to track as I can't find it easily on oddsportal and harder to find decent liquidity.
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@Alex-Rendell Not really. I might have a glance but all my data is based on the price as close to kickoff as possible and now perhaps around 30 mins prior as it's not such a rush.
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@Richard-Latimer Morning, just wondered if you track odds movement in terms of the difference between AM and pre-KO prices at all?
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I have without doubt ended this abysmal year slightly in the red so it mirrors everything else going on frankly.
I simply HAVE to put things right from January onwards even if it means moving slower as I attempted this last weekend.
I'm pausing all other systems (overs is the most developed by far) and throwing all my eggs into one basket. They either get to the destination safely or end up smashed all over the floor!
I've already looked at Boxing Day and there's nothing.
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Only got 5 trades this weekend and typically enough despite an early goal in Belgium those bastards stopped playing and it ended that way. I missed Leipzig as it looked like price would be too low right until kickoff then I saw it had drifted massively.
Despite a small loss overall I must take heart from this weekend as my ultra cautious approach managed to avoid another loss in Hungary.
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Lay Under 1.5:
Scoured the statistics of each and every game from top to bottom. Removed a few on this basis that may have me kicking myself if they lose. If 1/2 or god forbid 3 of these lose I'll have to hold my hands up and say I've no idea why. Bad day and go again on the same basis.
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Australia is one where I only have 9 selections since April 24 and only the bigger range odds so that's definitely on hold as an accident waiting to happen.
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I'm also locking down leagues with very small amounts of data and only higher prices.
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@Alex-Rendell yeah, I'm locking down top and bottom odds now where I don't have enough data.
There literally is no stone I'm not turning over anymore.
