Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Some of the only selections were postponed but what there was came through for a small sweep.
Sheet already updated with tomorrow's.
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Minimal selections for tomorrow but the sheet is updated.
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Today showing why it's so important to include my balls ups no matter how difficult. The official strats while notexactly dynamite, looking a whole lot better than my real trades.
Today was the turn of Plzen. Odds way way over my limit pre-match but I'd noticed they mostly came right in during the match so I though why not try make a bob on it. Cue a lay @ 21.00. 0-1 shortly after but not to worry Plzen far superior, they'll get it back. Top up the lay @ 5.5.
Did they f as like get it back?! Despite being well into double figures for shots on target 0-1 it remained. Not a costly lesson. My stakes not currently high enough for it to be costly.
Nevertheless if I never achieve my goals I believe impatience will pay a large part in it. When will I learn that impulsive bets/trades almost never work and always leave you with egg on your face!!
In terms of official stuff.
Both backs won
Both lays won (same games)
Over 2.5 - 1 selection/1 win
Over 1.5 - Nada, zilch
Alternative lays - same 2 games as above.
Alternative over 1.5 - A couple of skinny odds but only 1 loser. Small green. -
Decided to let some of the late ones run. Wouldn't say it was a mistake exactly as data shows only 2 from well over 100 have lost after being a goal up at ht (was only 1 before today).
Purely the law of sod which chose to make today the 2nd.
As it is the lays still finished off only about 0.25 pts down.
Backs soldiered on as normal without really going anywhere.
Minimal overs but small losses there.
Small loss on the alternative lays and some more loss on the alternative over 1.5.
Overall a fairly pants day but lays would have been up if I'd stuck to the plan. Only a few for Monday. Sheet updated.
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Way less in some areas today so hopefully a lot more manageable. Famous last words!
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Right, sheet updated. Still not checked what's going inplay yet but first lay due at 10:30.
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This is becoming more and more time consuming as I have so many balls in the air currently.
Backs
Lays
Over 2.5
Over 1.5
Over 1.5 again
And now another VERY slightly different way of looking at laysNot sure how long I can keep them all up. Updating yesterdays full card took hours and because I'm concentrating so hard on the first lays right now I'm having to take odds retrospectively from oddsportal on most and take a guestimate of what cashout price likely would have been should any of my teams be in a winning position.
It's not perfect and I wonder how long I can keep all these going without dropping some of the more variant strategies to the back burner.
Backs, going very well, all be it with quite low odds, yesterday until hit a few losers. 11 wins from 14 though still came out with a small green.
Lays resulted in around 1pt profit based on my new maria like staking. 16 lays with 2 losers amongst them. Losers were at the lower end odds wise.
Over 2.5 - Burned!!! Not really sure there's more to say than that. 3pts loss.
Over 1.5 - 3pts loss here too.
Alternative Lays - Around half a point lost.
Alternative Over 1.5 - A little over 1pt lost.
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I tell a lie. Streak was 37 again.
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The streak is over but it got to 38 before the next loss. I can live with that!
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What I forgot to report yesterday is that after a sticky spell lays are currently on a 31 long unbeaten streak. This is the 2nd largest since I started collecting data which definitely gives hope to the idea that what happened initially was no fluke.
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Done. Off to bed.
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Finally finished totalling up today.
Lays good
Backs small loss
Over 2.5 no good
Over 1.5 good and badNow to crack on with Saturday's!
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That's all the lays in now. Another sweep following what looked like a bad tempered game in Den Bosch.
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Odds Range Req S/R Max Liability
up to 3.5 75.00% 4.00%
3.55 - 7.4 87.50% 5.70%
7.6 - 11.0 92.31% 6.66%
11.5 - 15.0 94.12% 8.00%
15.5 - 20.0 95.45% 10.00%
21.0 - 25.0 96.30% 10.00%These are the figures I've been working on
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My calculations above are out of whack. I've puzzled over what various percentages should be for ages trying to work it back from a max liability and and it's not easy.
I think a better way to do it may be to look at each level of odds (for example 3.55-7.40) on it's own merit. For example, to make the odds of 7.40 work I will need 7 wins for every loss as a minimum. This is 87.50%. 85% gives longest expected losing streak of 4 while 90% gives that as 3. Combine the two and I can expect that to be 3.5.
Suggestion on bet size is that you should take longest likely losing streak x5. In this instance that's 17.50.
Divide the bank into 17.5 points for these odds and each point is your max liability.
To find do 100/17.5 which makes 5.71. Max liability 5.7%. From there it should be quite easy to ascertain the back stake. If you are working on a £100.00 bank this would be £0.89.
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A whole load of everything tomorrow. Backs/Lays/Overs.
In terms of consistency I'm probably more confident on the lays than anything else at the moment. Man of these are far too high odds to be laying level stakes so I've worked out a sort of maria staking system for them.
up to 3.50 - 1pt
3.55 - 7.40 - 0.6pt
7.60 - 11.00 - 0.4pt
11.50 - 15.00 - 0.3pt
16.00 - 20.00 - 0.24pt
21.00 - 25.00 - 0.21ptI think it would be up to the individual to define what % their own pt should be but for me that's about 2.85%
I've calculated that with a 90% s/r my highest liability should be 6.66%. For anything over 11.00 I need higher than this anyway and the higher odds the higher s/r I expect. That being said I've calculated a max 10% liability where I expect around a 95% s/r.
I've done all this from looking at these linked pages:
http://www.soccerwidow.com/football-gambling/betting-knowledge/value-betting-academy/learning-centre/science-calculating-winning-losing-streaks/
https://www.thepunterspal.com/archives/875From the tables shown it should be possible to calculate likely winning/losing streaks and as such the amount to bet in accordance with bank.
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1 selection, 1 win. On to tomorrow.
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Todays over 2.5 could only manage 2 goals but conversely this was the first game in the over 1.5's all of which won.
Only one away game in Egypt tomorrow to back and these have been no great shakes!
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1 selection of over 2.5 which failed to hit but 1 back (also a lay) which hit at fairly nice odds.
In addition the 2x over 1.5 on season long data both hit. Updating sheet for tomorrow now.
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For over 2.5's that should have read over 60% s/r
