Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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I've spent a fair old while this afternoon looking at odds for different countries as many of the ones that don't happen as much or where I would like a little more data are much better in terms of price.
There's a real feeling that the balance is quite right at the moment having started off way too loose and perhaps tigtened up too much on the leagues.
Where my data shows enough to suggest that the league will remain at least 1pt ahead in profit should it lose I'm going to play it. This opens out Eng League One amongst a few others.
The outliers are becoming far too much of a common occurrence to simply let them go so unless the overall goals is 4+ or home ave 2.7(home sh ave the top quaifying end of each scoreline) I'm going to start playing them.
Not only that but when it falls out of the known range and there is no negative data either then this is where I'll try and get on for a better price around 60th minute. These truly are outliers as the criteria hasn't moved alot in quite some time.
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A quick midway through the month update. Total investment in this particular project is now £199.41 since start of Aug.
Bank £251.26
Profit £51.85.
In 4.5 months it's not great but at least I can see it is going up.
It's also around £15 up for Dec so far. Again not great but at least it's green and not red.
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Richard Latimerreplied to Richard Latimer on 13 Dec 2021, 01:28 last edited by Richard Latimer 13 Dec 2021, 01:30
@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £184.41 - Current Bank £220.78 (+£6.57 for Nov):
In terms of what I said about a years data, tomorrow there is only 1 potential for me in a proven league. After that it will have been 1 whole year.
I will maintain what I'm doing with the leagues. Until they're proven they are purely for tracking. Also when data falls outside of the range on my list of criteria I will only track this even if no losses have been recorded at these data points.
Outliers are too many, will take too long to clear completely and need to be brought back in (maybe with the excaption of a couple of big numbers!).
I believe many people would view a years data as enough to be making some strong and confident decisions. I will also have a minimum of 998 trades by then in proven leagues or those doing well but with not enough data yet.
Actually it's 2 more days before I have 1 yr of data. Would be great if I could hit 1k of trades by then.
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In terms of what I said about a years data, tomorrow there is only 1 potential for me in a proven league. After that it will have been 1 whole year.
I will maintain what I'm doing with the leagues. Until they're proven they are purely for tracking. Also when data falls outside of the range on my list of criteria I will only track this even if no losses have been recorded at these data points.
Outliers are too many, will take too long to clear completely and need to be brought back in (maybe with the exception of a couple of big numbers!).
I believe many people would view a years data as enough to be making some strong and confident decisions. I will also have a minimum of 998 trades by then in proven leagues or those doing well but with not enough data yet.
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And here we go again!
First of all, I'll just say that i'm coming up to a years data and it may be time to try and find a better balance with these outliers as like I've said in the past, they are accounting for a lot of selections still.
My record today was 4/5 and a small loss of just under 2pts. The overall system record for today is 9/10.
Hamburger I got
Karlsruher was not just an outlier but was outside a current range in the home odds for the 2-1 scoreline. It would now be considered an outlier.
Oldenburg was on a league I wanted more data from. I now consider there to be enough data to proceed.
Verona I got
Servette an outlier
Besiktas I got
Sparta Prague I got
Gent an unlikely loser
Guabira an outlier (missed the goal by fractions)
Club Brugge an outlierSo I hit half of the now qualifiers
had 3 outliers that didn't match in timePerhaps moving forward I may look to take the outliers as I'm not sure there's too much reason not to.
I could try for a 60th minute entry on anything that falls outside of the given ranges without falling into a range with proven losers.
I don't know, it's frustrating but the good thing is when the day is done my data is almost all green which means that sooner or later this is what I'll be seeing in practice.
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Small red today. Only one loss but 3 or 4 outliers that scored too early. This is the problem right now and it's frustrating. But money is being made, just slower than it will be when the outliers are minimised.
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Here's todays:
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A very quiet day in the end. Typical as I literally had nothing to do but sit at the computer all day for once!
There were a couple of League One qualifiers and that league is now only 1 succesful match away from being included.
Elsewhere Panathinaikos made it 3 wins in Greece but need at least 7 more there before I will look to add it.
Honved was an outllier but thankfully they waited until a couple of min after I was matched to put one in there. Not only that but the reduced price was just under 3.5 and I managed to hit the highest staking window on my table.
The other 3 winners were straight forward and the like I said before the loss was the first encountered yet in National League.
32p profit haha! No change to staking.
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4/5 and the tiniest gains as National League suffers first loss.
League One creeping ever closer.
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Yesterday was interesting despite minimal selections:
In truth only one selection qualified as a full outright from HT with Eindhoven joining as an outlier 60th minute (approx) onwards.
Officially 1/1 last night
inc. outliers 2-2
inc. outliers from HT 4/4I got sidetracked watching something so almost screwed it all up. Having looked at things just before HT I then became engrossed in what I was doing and it wasn't until the first game kicked back off in the second half I was forced into immediate action haha!
Oss I made a small mistake and got in @ 0-0 HT, then when I realised the outlier status I went back in and reduced liability for a smaller win if it came in.
Volendam I also got in @ HT 2-0, by the time I eeven checked that it was 3-0. This one qualified anyway.
Eindhoven was another outlier and this one I got in around 57-58mins @ 3.15 but forgot to increase stake accordingly with odds being 3.5 or under. Fortunately the goal didn't come for a while and I was able to increase to that pre-set level for a lower price probably hitting around 2.8 between the two on ave.
Ballymena was an outlier and it plain and simple didn't reach the required entry point.
So long story short, I got on Oss before goal in 54th minute for a reduced win but it shouldn't really have been anything at that stage of the game. Had it lost the liability wouldn't have been much more than if I'd entered on 60 though.
Of more longterm interest is this.
Oss remains very much an outlier with home ave 1.5 being a rare occurence in my 0-0 HT score qualifiers.
Eindhoven I would no longer consider an outliers (Home SHG ave 0.7 has now reached a level of 10 selections without loss on the 1-0 HT scoreline - watch the 11th lose now haha).
Ballymena also would not be considered an outlier today. The home odds of 5.53 now have 10 qualifiers with odds either matching or above that without loss. Previously the limit for 10 or above was 5.12.
So my gain was +£9.44 although even without the chaotic nature of last night it would still have been just over £7.00.
Todays will follow shortly....
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New stakes in line with pre-set percentages. No reduction unless bank hits £165.96
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2/2 tonight including 1 outlier. Another 2 outliers hit too soon. All good for data.
Bank £240.33.
Tomorrow I will be adding more funds (£5 for each week I've not added anything).
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A couple have already fallen by the wayside as non qualifiers but of course theey will be on the main sheet.
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@matt-wood no don't look at league positions. Only whether they are promoted/relegated team and only then if less than 20 matches played in the league which should equate to 10 home/10 away
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Evening Richard, all good I hope.
Forgive me if you have talked about this already or the info is on your posts, I freely admit to not being able to follow all your stuff (more time in the special class needed).
Do you take league position of the two teams in a game into account at all?
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Bit of time to kill today so thought I'd p**s around with my chart and look individual months etc. Interesting reading. Firstly I imagined that the beginning part of the year would have seen more trades as don't have to worry about promoted/relegated but that's just not true from looking at it.
December was sparse last year although only started collecting data midway through. Still, points tally would have averaged aroubd 21pts or more based on average book price.
After that January was similar on around 42pts for the whole month while after that it just continued to get a little better each month eventually hitting 67pts in May.
June was small naturally with only 19-20pts but then surprisingly July and Aug were right back up to over 50pts. Sept hit over 60pts and then Oct, which I did ok from, hit a whopping 141pts!!!
Nov was back at just over 61pts.
Dec so far is hovering around 27pts.
a)gutted I didn't make more out of Oct haha!!
b) there is of course a small caveat with everything at present in that some parts are moving and also I only started tracking the 3pm games at the beginning of this season.
On my stripped back data as is though, there hasn't been close to a losing month......YET.....
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Tomorrow there's nothing and Thursday there's nothing. Friday looking more interesting with the dutch games back on the radar.
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Couple more wins in ENG League One so that's moving ever closer to selection.
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Nothing tomorrow either. Just a few in English leagues to add to the data.
1541/5322