Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

Lay under 1.5 Backa Topola @ 6.4
Currently 0-1 HT
Stake £1.97

[Richard Latimer]

@dan-mackinnon said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer I'll be honest, a lot of this sounds interesting but has gone over my head. Surely if the SR stays the same, but the winning streak increases, the losing streaks become more frequent? You'll only ever win 93.5 out of 100 or 93,500 out of 100,000. Is this more to do with variance and random sequencing?

The longest losing streaks do get longer but it's percentages of very small numbers where as winning streaks are percentages of big numbers. Where your longest expected losing streak goes from 4-4.2 in 90k of trades your longest expected win streak goes from something like 108-148.

I'm no Will Hunting either but I believe the calculation. Statistics fascinate me!

[Dan MacKinnon]

@richard-latimer I'll be honest, a lot of this sounds interesting but has gone over my head. Surely if the SR stays the same, but the winning streak increases, the losing streaks become more frequent? You'll only ever win 93.5 out of 100 or 93,500 out of 100,000. Is this more to do with variance and random sequencing?

[Richard Latimer]

On the subject of longest expected win streaks I've just been playing around with the formula and it seems that, for the percentage of 93.52% I have right now from 849 trades, 64 is a little on the lower side than I thought it would be.

These are all excellent tools to have as it shows you what COULD be just around the corner if thes/r were to maintain.

Longest expected win streak from current data is actually 86.

Never get complacent though!

Longest expected losing streak is still 3 and I've already hit or come close to hitting that. The good news is it never really deteriorates from here. 100,000 trades at 93.52% is still only 4 on the longest expected losing streak. On the longest expected win however it's 148.

I love maths haha!!

[Richard Latimer]

Not doing much this morning so got a little time for some more analysis and I've created another tab on my sheet to keep an eye on the the frequency and longevity of win streaks on the SHG.

Including the one still going, after making a further and necessary tweak last night, there have been 22 win streaks of 15+ since mid Dec last year (I must caveat that with not tracking some of the lower leagues at the beginning as well as also choosing to eliminate/not to track most Sat 3pm games - both of which I will no longer be doing).

The longest of these was 64 matches long!!! The current of 42 is the 3rd longest (and for this one I have been tracking every single game providing the market is inplay and the liquidity is there).

Only 3 of these have been as short as 15 games. Full numbers are as follows:

1 @ 16
2 @ 17
1 @ 18
1 @ 19
1 @ 22
1 @ 23
1 @ 27
3 @ 28
1 @ 29
1 @ 30
1 @ 33
2 @ 35
1 @ 42
1 @ 54
1 @ 64

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Goals galore in Norway today but not in one of these and the only one I took. Interestingly this league from 3 selections thus far already has 2 losers making up 20% of the losers already.

Norway Obos is actually the first country to be red listed on FHG. 2 losses at this stage means I need on average 7 more wins to break even and 8 to profit. It's also the first league to hit 2 losers in over 100 selections so it makes sense.

[Richard Latimer]

How very un Thursday. Selections:

Only 4 so not massively hard to track. However good habits are important and bad habits hard to break so I've double checked the number against fixtures on my phone. This must be a rule from now on. If I'm busy with life so be it but I don't want to just leave money on the table for sake of it. That's just bad planning.

Fail to prepare and you should prepare to fail. Where did I read that....

Another I like which is something in my daughters song writing book we bought her. A quote from Eisenhower no less.

plans are worthless, but planning is everything.

[Richard Latimer]

Firstly the FHG that never was and the other FHG that never was. One missed and the other missed the target:

Goals galore in Norway today but not in one of these and the only one I took. Interestingly this league from 3 selections thus far already has 2 losers making up 20% of the losers already.

1/2 for the system
0-1 for me

SHG:

6/6 on system plays
Ok so I get it, that's not the way it played out (6/7) but I'm measuring how it performs after the smallest of tweaks as well as recording my own failings (is it really a failing? I'm not sure. More of an observation I've only just been able to make).

For me it was 5/6 having already discussed missing Aalesund for some inexplicable reason.

Today -£8.97

[Richard Latimer]

In the middle of updating I managed to see another very obvious improvement to make right now....aty least until the data develops.

By increasing the required average to 0.9 for a SHG when scorelines are in the crazy range @ HT I secure potentially another 15-20pts while having a a few less selections. They may come back in but lower ave than 0.9 when HT score is crazy appears to be somewhat of an outlier.

It's better to remove it for now and add it back in rather than see this bit of minor data drag the system down. If it's the same for leagues it's the same for criteria.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

There are some crazy scores today.

Lay under 6.5 Grotta @ 9.2
Currently 6-0 HT
Stake £1.46

7-0 so no more surprises. Still around a 4pt loss which isn't that bad. Still in credit for the month. Updates to come.

[Richard Latimer]

There are some crazy scores today.

Lay under 6.5 Grotta @ 9.2
Currently 6-0 HT
Stake £1.46

[Richard Latimer]

One thing I really have to sort out is not putting all the days games on my phone and forgetting about them. Completely forgot about Aalesund. Not only was it a SHG, it was a FHG as well. 2 missed trades and it's not because I was doing anything else. It's simply carelessness.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Lay under 0.5 FH Sogndal @ 5.0
Stake £1.97

Can't win em all.

Lay under 3.5 Ham-Kam @ 6.2
Currently 3-0 HT
Stake £1.97

Lay under 6.5 Sandnes @ 7.2
Currently 4-2 HT
Stake £1.97

Poor day. They happen. Still one more potential on the list.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Lay under 0.5 FH Sogndal @ 5.0
Stake £1.97

Can't win em all.

Lay under 3.5 Ham-Kam @ 6.2
Currently 3-0 HT
Stake £1.97

Lay under 6.5 Sandnes @ 7.2
Currently 4-2 HT
Stake £1.97

[Richard Latimer]

Lay under 0.5 FH Sogndal @ 5.0
Stake £1.97

[Richard Latimer]

Lay under 2.5 KFM Oslo @ 7.4
Currently 1-1 HT
Stake £1.97

[Richard Latimer]

Exactly yes. It's a cross between stats on the filter and odds found on oddsportal.com giving ave book price.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer hi richard are the figures under lcs the stats you use to find what matches to bet on thanks jamie

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Still up coughing and spluttering. Yay, the benefits of a horrible cold!

Lay under 1.5 Columbus @ 4.4
Currently 0-1 HT
Stake £1.97

Lay under 2.5 New York City @ 7.2
Currently 1-1 HT
Stake £1.97

2/2 overnight

[Richard Latimer]

Still up coughing and spluttering. Yay, the benefits of a horrible cold!

Lay under 1.5 Columbus @ 4.4
Currently 0-1 HT
Stake £1.97

Lay under 2.5 New York City @ 7.2
Currently 1-1 HT
Stake £1.97