Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Today a perfect illustration of not playing the big outliers. Volendam were low on home odds, low on over odds and had a very home scored ave. 2-0 @ HT and 2-0 it stayed.
Went 2/2 thanks to avoiding that banana skin.
Xamax
Jong AjaxTomorrow looks better than it has done for a long time!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Tomorrow:
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Nothing tomorrow again. Roll on Friday.
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Thread title updated with Jan profit. Not enough but it's a step in the right direction again.
Today was 1/1 with Braunschweig.
Tomorrow:
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The only potential today:
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I'm updating today which had 2 wins on th SHG. One of which I was out for and the other I did.
On the flip side my over 1.5 needs more data. First 2 came in while I was out but then I got cocky and thought well I may as well do these as well.
Went 2/3 there for an overall slight loss on the day.
There is one more potential tomorrow and while a loss there would likely take me into negative territory for the month I don't plan on running scared. Yes it would be great to finish a 4th straight month in green (although not enough) but running away doesn't seem the right attitude to ensure that.
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Todays potentials:
Between Winterthur to Den Haag any trades will be on over 1.5 and only if they meet the required pre-match odds that I've been analysing recently.
For Winterthur I want between 1.36 & 1.63 Home odds
For Almere & Den Haag it will need to be in these rangesHome odds 1.39-1.79, 2.94-3.27 & 3.73-4.37
For Mezokovesd-Zsory it will need to be between Home odds 1.62-2.74 & 3.75-6.87
Odds are taken from oddsportal.com but bear in mind I will be doing them before 14:00 so if the odds move significantly it could be a factor.
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This thread, this system, all of it, is always about what's going to happen going forward. Not about what happened on the day. I went 0/2 for a rubbish day.
Eng League is on pause as mentioned many times already since the early debacle.
The only 3 selections which would currently be selections were outliers and regrettably would still be outliers. That said, they won't be forever. Either they'll lose or they'll eventually fall within the lines where I consider them a trade.
For anybody wanting to know what made them outliers:
Paks had a VERY high total ave goals which actually became the highest value for this scoreline today so not even an outlier earlier. Now it is.
Eindhoven. Home odds lower than the threshold I'm willing to use on 0-0 at present. They were 1.27 and it was 1.29. It is now 1.28.
Young Boys had a VERY high SHG ave (1.7). My threeshold is currently 1.5 for 0-0 but it's only a matter of time until the threshold is cemented or extended.
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Poor day today but why wouldn't it be the day before the most important day for me in the last 10 months haha! Going through all the results but the main take away is a league I was beginning to trust cannot be trusted at all for now.
Aside from that typically enough there were a couple falling into outlier territory at 0-0 which went and won. Great for the data to keep narrowing the field of outliers and turning them into potentials for the future anyway.
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Here's todays potentials.
Tomorrow I have a coffee date with somone who I hope is real (who can tell until you actually meet them haha) and there is a couple of matches on during this time. Obviously it would be date suicide not to put all the attention onto her assuming I like so I may well trial an over 1.5 method I've been looking at from the same filter assuming it all fits. Just for the few around 13:00-15:00 haha!
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Assuming it doesn't get cancelled there's one potential for tomorrow in Wales. I'll post later as no hurry.
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Nothing today and more
tomorrow
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Bank back up to £284.02 following win in Chippenham. Tomorrows potentials:
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Can't wait until I can finally look at the next days fixture without seeing the horrible words postponed or cancelled ffs!!
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Scrap that, it's Portugal 2. Nothing today.
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@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £199.41 - Current Bank £244.17 (+£8.39 for Dec):
Full update:
More or less the same. Left out today was Kasimpasa based on it being outlier territory. Still only 2x qualifiers with ave as low as 1.5 for home team so it would remain an outlier. Nevertheless more important data.
Only 1 for tomorrow and I'll post in the evening.
When I went to look at my settled bets I noticed an error which luckily worked for me rather than came back to bite me in the arse! I somehow managed to lay under 4.5 twice in the Empoli game.
Should have been a loss of just under 2pts yesterday but I'll take it haha!
Only one potential tonight in Portugal. I'll post up in a bit.
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Full update:
More or less the same. Left out today was Kasimpasa based on it being outlier territory. Still only 2x qualifiers with ave as low as 1.5 for home team so it would remain an outlier. Nevertheless more important data.
Only 1 for tomorrow and I'll post in the evening.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Another 3/4 and I've just taken a look at the Mechelen game to see if I would do it again and yes I would. 100%!!
First 0-1 loss in Belgian Jupiler
Plenty more wins with higher home odds
Ave goals, home ave and home SH ave all in what I would consider the sweet spot
Over odds plenty high enough.I won't say one of those weekends. Fri was decent enough and Sat/Sun just stopped me moving forward on that. Frustrating but looking at the big picture I'm in decent profit for Jan still and there have been a mountain of postponed games. Still one week and even if it is an international break I'm sure there will be a few trades.
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Here's tomorrow:
Only 2-0 in Aus would facilitate a trade there so if I miss it from being asleep it's most likely not going to amount to a hill of beans!
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Well here's what happened today in the big picture:
I went 3/4 for a 1pt loss.
On top of this Portugal has played itself into contention on the basis the odds are so good there and with 6 wins/0 losses at present even a loss will leeave the league in small profit.
Laliga continued the 100% record when 0-0 as a HT result is taken away. The home odds were in outlier territory today but it all adds to the data and makes the solid evn more solid!
