Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Martin]

@john-folan said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@martin Bfbotmanager which I love

do you use Bet Angel alongside?

[John Folan]

@martin Bfbotmanager which I love

[Martin]

@john-folan which bot are you using at the moment, something I need to look into more! Are you with Bet Angel as well?

[John Folan]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

As an experiment I just checked to see what the results were like if waiting until 60 mins for a goal.

It's 426/473 for just over 90% s/r

Which by my calculations make it around half as much profit but of course I would be staking more for a little less liability because the odds would normally fall into a different range. It's pretty much the same I reckon, only entering at HT is easier than being on hand for the 60th. Perhaps in the future with a bot but this works for me right now.

To be fair if the liability is lower your losses should be lower. I’ll try and work up a bot for you over the next day or two to test it out?

[Richard Latimer]

As an experiment I just checked to see what the results were like if waiting until 60 mins for a goal.

It's 426/473 for just over 90% s/r

Which by my calculations make it around half as much profit but of course I would be staking more for a little less liability because the odds would normally fall into a different range. It's pretty much the same I reckon, only entering at HT is easier than being on hand for the 60th. Perhaps in the future with a bot but this works for me right now.

[Richard Latimer]

Nothing tomorrow.

Will add my normal £5.00 for the week so new bank for Fri is £181.63.

Profit so far in Oct is £37.00 so almost wiped out Sept losses and system firmly in the green at present from when I started in Aug.

Revised stakes for next trade...

Have once again moved out of the minimum zone for the most part and hoping not to go back there this time.

[Richard Latimer]

Post Sunday update in full:

Balestier Khalsa I missed out on as pree said. Was driving on motorway.
Auerbach I wanted to see how it did as odds over my threshold for the 0-0 going on what had come before. Still a veery good week thus far with limited opportunities.

[Richard Latimer]

Another day another dollar:

Should be able to post complete update tonight but in the meantime that's +£3.31 and a new bank of £176.63.

[Richard Latimer]

Missed Khalsa this morning as I was on the motorway. Nevermind. Good for the continuing data. Finally, finally, finally.....here's Sunday minus Randers which I played at the time but since decided to bench the Danish Superliga. Was still profitable, just not as profitable as it would have been without.

[Richard Latimer]

In the meantime there's these for tomorrow:

[Richard Latimer]

I had hoped to have finished off my weekend updates tonight but I noticed a discrepancy in the sheet and had to go back through certain results etc.... Either way it put me back and I'm now 2 away. Unfortunately I have to get up early and take a long drive so rather get some sleep than fall asleep at the wheel.

[Richard Latimer]

2/2 tonight +£3.72

Still updating.

Bank now £173.32

[Richard Latimer]

Just realised from an area where i tightened up on Friday after the BFC Dynamo loss (outlier) I saved myself a further loss in Ham-Kam over the weekend with similar stats. Just shows always better to remove stuff early doors and let it back in later on if gets back on track rather than keep plugging away at a dead horse.

[Richard Latimer]

For today:

Asker is a trade right now.

[Richard Latimer]

Making good progress with updating Sunday but I need some downtime now so will continue tomorrow. Will of course post up any for tomorrow either tonight or tomorrow afternoon.

[John Folan]

@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer i think the discussion on my blog today might help you bud, i think your over reliant on the data in a long term performance. Essentially, if you just had a set bank for a year this would work, your big data says so, but because you keep compounding you keep resetting the bank and therefore you will have hits. Last month for example brought you way back, because of your staking and compounding. This month you have had a good run, but because you keep compounding so quickly your just one bad weekend away from going all the way back. Like iv been saying from literally the first time i questioned how you trade, its not the strategy, i fully think you have something, it will take time, cutting leagues etc, but the way your managing it is super risky and your chasing this way too much. Saw you tell john you only have 7 months to get a big bank, yet your current bank is only £180 ish, can you actually see this risk?

Only replying to this because its based on my blog discussion. Not wanting to re open a discussion about your trading long term, just thought my post might help as clearly you do fit into the things im talking about.

Have to say not the worst idea to compound once a month. Or maybe stake less if you want aggressive compounding. (200 point bank maybe so halve your stakes). Either can be managed well. I remember after I blew my second bank I didn’t place another bean down until I had paper traded for six months. Then I only increased stakes everytime my bank doubled. I’m more aggressive these days but that’s because I know I can offset any losses through scalping and inrunning trading.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer i think the discussion on my blog today might help you bud, i think your over reliant on the data in a long term performance. Essentially, if you just had a set bank for a year this would work, your big data says so, but because you keep compounding you keep resetting the bank and therefore you will have hits. Last month for example brought you way back, because of your staking and compounding. This month you have had a good run, but because you keep compounding so quickly your just one bad weekend away from going all the way back. Like iv been saying from literally the first time i questioned how you trade, its not the strategy, i fully think you have something, it will take time, cutting leagues etc, but the way your managing it is super risky and your chasing this way too much. Saw you tell john you only have 7 months to get a big bank, yet your current bank is only £180 ish, can you actually see this risk?

Only replying to this because its based on my blog discussion. Not wanting to re open a discussion about your trading long term, just thought my post might help as clearly you do fit into the things im talking about.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Just these 3 of interest tonight:

Crusaders not a trade so 2/2 in Norway and +£3.17

Bank £169.60

For anyone worried about me compounding day on day, I get this has more risk of fluctuation but that's what the ratchet is there for and it's already been employed to good effect.

The growth will be quicker and of course any falls more heavily felt.

I'm not hovering around the precipice in terms of edge though. Between 94-95% s/r on the data (rapidly approaching 1,000 trades) which is getting closer and closer to actual reality. 85-86% would see me break even as my average odds no more than 6.4 (prob lower) so that's quite a chunk of grace shall we say.

I've experienced the bad runs on this already and I made the money back that was lost and now back in the green by around £15.00.

[Richard Latimer]

Just these 3 of interest tonight:

[Richard Latimer]

Finally, Saturday is done:

Was a few other decent results in leagues where I need data but no point in posting those.