Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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I'll sort the rest out tomorrow but a couple of early Aussie games. Now I've been saying this for the last couple of weekends at least but sooner rather than later things have to click into place again.
Following this evenings which at least one of the losses could potentially have been avoided it really is as tight and efficient looking as it could be.
Alll scorelines have an exceptionally good s/r with only 0-1 letting it down a little. Most of the losses for 0-1 are contained within a range of home odds 2.16-2.46 but unlike with the 2-0, which saw Glentoran take the foot off the pedal at 2-0 and according to Keith hardly break a sweet, the strike rate for this medium size sample of 34 games is still a respectable 85% which wouldn't be losing alot and could still recover.
Outliers are still there but hopefully I've reached a balance where the most likely to become something more than outliers are profited from and the big numbers likely to fall by the wayside are avoided.
Things like tonight could still happen in relation to odds at either end of the scale but it's going to level out in the end. Before tonight my lowest odds for the 0-1 were 1.61 and the point where I had 10 qualifying selections all green was 1.68. Tonight it's lowest 1.64 and 10 selections @ 1.69 so it's tightening in from there being 7 ticks between outlier or no outlier to 5.
All these little things will help in the long run despite it seeming incredibly frustrating at the time.
I'm trying to reign in the frustration. Have been for a while. I'm not shouting and screaming or blaming luck as the more the data develops the less luck appears to have with anything to do with it.
VAR and missed pens etc. So what, if it was the right call there's usually more than one opportunity to put the ball in the back of the onion bag!
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Well I'm only about 3 matches away from finishing tonights update
2/4 and a bad night.
I had already upped the home odds of 0-1 score to 1.6 as below it had performed poorly and still it struggles around the 1.6 mark.
Dusseldorf were 1.63.
I've now upped it to 1.64 (removed 3 trades, no more) and we'll see how that goes.
The other significant change after tonight is something I've seen coming for a little while (even made a notee about it on the bottom of my sheet) in that 2-0 scoreline has so far seemed to have a very black spot between 1.55-1.66 home odds. Talking 24 trades now and a s/r of less than 70%.
I don't know what, it doesn't seem hugely logical (I'm sure I could come up with some half baked theory if I tried hard enough but that's all it would be) but the facts remain the facts and a thoroughly excellent set of results is being brought down by this phenomenom.
0-1 is now the poorest scoreline and that's still over 94%. Really no idea what could be done to bring this inline so for now I'll stay out of it and see where the data takes me.
Now with all the random tweaks people can see it could be argued it will be one thing after another until the whole crumbles as an illogical butchered mess. I don't see that. There's still 1,003 lines of qualifying data and most of it fits my expectations.
In the end as medium sized data turns into big data there will be less/no tweaks and then we'll see the true potential. As is, time to play catchup again this weekend.
-£4.83 for Dec so still a good chance in almost 2 weeks to turn that green.
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Today was going to be a losing day anyway after Fortuna have forced me to look at the odds limits for 0-1 again but then it was made doubly worse by not acting upon a pattern I had spotted developing a while back. It's not the most logical one which is what has stopped me and if I think my discipline is A+ now well losing that game putting me into a losing position for the day probably influenced me negatively to take something I wasn't 100% sure on.
Month has now gone from it's ok to being in the red. Still a little way to go but it's another disappointment as we head into a new year.
I'll update fully later.
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@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £184.41 - Current Bank £220.78 (+£6.57 for Nov):
2/2 again tonight.
+£5.70nice one!
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2/2 again tonight.
+£5.70Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £184.41 - Current Bank £220.78 (+£6.57 for Nov):
Not EPL game. Tracking only there.
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Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
I've laid down a few rules for myself which I think will help when dealing with things that haven't come up enough so far:
It won't stop all the losses on these but by and large the losses have come from the extreme numbers rather than those just a little higher or lower than most.
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As much as I love to update the winning days then I absolutely need to update the losing ones. Missed pen in Young Boys but that's no excuse. It came before 60mins and I won't blame luck.
Typical that it was what I would deem an outlier but if I leave them they win and if I don't they lose so I must remain consistent and plough through this particular issue which will iron itself out over time. Until then there will be bumps but I will still profit of that I'm very confident.
Well over 1K selections on my selected leagues and selected criteria now so the bones of it are in place.
The other match was Gladbach with a 1-1 HT.
1/2
-£14.87
Bank reduces to £244.79 -
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2/2 and win in Anderlecht that I didn't quite get to. Fell outside of the range for home SHG scored ave and wasn't sure if I was even going to enter anyway as Anderlecht hadn't been flying in the game from what I could see.
+£5.60
Bank £259.66New stakes to be calculated for tomorrow......and.......
I've finally reached 1 whole years data. Not a single day has been missed that I'm aware of although some leagues I didn't start collecting immediately and much of the Sat 3pm stuff was missing from last season.
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A few potentials for tomorrow:
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Just the one today. Winner in Roma.
1/1
+£2.80
Bank £254.06
Stakes same -
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I've spent a fair old while this afternoon looking at odds for different countries as many of the ones that don't happen as much or where I would like a little more data are much better in terms of price.
There's a real feeling that the balance is quite right at the moment having started off way too loose and perhaps tigtened up too much on the leagues.
Where my data shows enough to suggest that the league will remain at least 1pt ahead in profit should it lose I'm going to play it. This opens out Eng League One amongst a few others.
The outliers are becoming far too much of a common occurrence to simply let them go so unless the overall goals is 4+ or home ave 2.7(home sh ave the top quaifying end of each scoreline) I'm going to start playing them.
Not only that but when it falls out of the known range and there is no negative data either then this is where I'll try and get on for a better price around 60th minute. These truly are outliers as the criteria hasn't moved alot in quite some time.
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A quick midway through the month update. Total investment in this particular project is now £199.41 since start of Aug.
Bank £251.26
Profit £51.85.
In 4.5 months it's not great but at least I can see it is going up.
It's also around £15 up for Dec so far. Again not great but at least it's green and not red.
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@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £184.41 - Current Bank £220.78 (+£6.57 for Nov):
In terms of what I said about a years data, tomorrow there is only 1 potential for me in a proven league. After that it will have been 1 whole year.
I will maintain what I'm doing with the leagues. Until they're proven they are purely for tracking. Also when data falls outside of the range on my list of criteria I will only track this even if no losses have been recorded at these data points.
Outliers are too many, will take too long to clear completely and need to be brought back in (maybe with the excaption of a couple of big numbers!).
I believe many people would view a years data as enough to be making some strong and confident decisions. I will also have a minimum of 998 trades by then in proven leagues or those doing well but with not enough data yet.
Actually it's 2 more days before I have 1 yr of data. Would be great if I could hit 1k of trades by then.
