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Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

Scheduled Pinned Locked Moved Football Trading
5.6k Posts 81 Posters 437.1k Views
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to A Former User on last edited by
    #1441

    @james-rome said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £199.41 - Current Bank £326.71 (+£53.50 for Mar):

    Why I am focusing on over 1.5 set forget just don't have time and don't want to be out with my partner and friends and be on my phone. During lock down was fine had the time but now don't. Why my match betting has also fallen off (more the inplay free gets) its important to have a balance.

    Yeah, I think you have to take the slight downturn in potential profits to be able to enjoy what you do earn.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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  • ? Offline
    ? Offline
    A Former User
    wrote on last edited by
    #1442

    Why I am focusing on over 1.5 set forget just don't have time and don't want to be out with my partner and friends and be on my phone. During lock down was fine had the time but now don't. Why my match betting has also fallen off (more the inplay free gets) its important to have a balance.

    Richard LatimerR 1 Reply Last reply
    2
  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #1443

    I'm starting to realise something else too and that's that while the data for over 1.5 is never going to be as good as the data for SHG it's a whole lot easier to implement now that my life is finally beginning over again (I'm properly seeing someone now and not going to mess it up for this or anything else!).

    Also, presently at least, I can't match my data for real life trades so I'm guessing it wouldn't be that much different.

    I think during times where I know I'm going to be around at least I have to look at the over 1.5 and specifically leagues that are good for this.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by Richard Latimer
    #1444

    Yesterday was disappointing. Only 3 trades and one loss. Could have been 4 trades and one loss but I was doing something more important when Grasshoppers qualified. I need to find a way to do the somthing more important and not miss too many trades eespecially during a sticky patch.

    That said it was just one trade.

    The most consequential thing to come out of yesterday was the 2-0 scoreline hitting roughly break even on the 2nd good league since I started this thing in Dec 2020. I think to myself that scoreline is struggling but it's really not. Just now Belgium and Italy out of many many leagues where I'm pausing it.

    I think, and it's not something I particuarly gave much credence to a while ago, that in some ways, the more data you collect, there are that many more variables to consider when looking at what works and what doesn't. Also, if your micro analysing like me there will be things like pauses on leagues which eventually come good. It's only natural that you are going to get some scorelines which suffer more in certain leagues out of a smallish number of games.

    Who's to say the next 20 games 2-0 @ HT in Italy don''t all have a goal. It will take around 2 years for this to happen though based on current frequency so I think I can cope with the loss of that revenue while I monitor things from afar.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #1445

    Saturday ongoing but this is Sunday:

    0_1649522645612_bac6c01d-a8dc-46b2-aae3-553f8ccb6894-image.png

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #1446

    Sat:

    0_1649461297856_7665f80f-a962-47ba-850c-d3e9457045f8-image.png

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #1447

    Friday:

    0_1649364287411_b8820a2a-f3d4-44e5-836a-257b78399c59-image.png

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    replied to Richard Latimer on last edited by
    #1448

    @richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £199.41 - Current Bank £326.71 (+£53.50 for Mar):

    In any case, one potential tonight to get back on the right track:

    0_1649267077134_49eef089-e88a-4b85-8ce8-ac77c76a01cb-image.png

    I've actually just looked again. There's not a single scenario that could play out where this would qualify on current data.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by Richard Latimer
    #1449

    In any case, one potential tonight to get back on the right track:

    0_1649267077134_49eef089-e88a-4b85-8ce8-ac77c76a01cb-image.png

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    Richard LatimerR 1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #1450

    Always easier to see things with a clearer head the day after. I decided to look into average lay odds (revers of the book price so not exact) for certain leagues and found that if I'd been a bit more brutal leagues like some of the Kakkonen ones would have been off the books some time ago. This would ultimately have left the Singapore game as an outlier and one I'd have left alone. Didn't happen but not ready to pause Singapore yet.

    What I hadn't taken into account is just because a league has better ave losing odds than the ones that win in a variable staking system it simply means your winning less most of the time.

    Ger Regionalliga Bayern will need 1 or 2 more favourable results to do again but it's ok. There were plenty of shots there and there should have been a goal.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #1451

    Updating Sundays,Mondays & Tuesdays in one hit:

    0_1649194276743_186acd18-cf49-4b5e-9d44-9811437b3502-image.png

    So Poland 1 the only trade not taken due to a lack of data.

    Today was nasty. Hope for better soon. Singapore and Ger Regionalliga Bayern in a state of pause right now. Not removed from main qualifiers from the sheet as only one loss but wouldn't touch either presently.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by Richard Latimer
    #1452

    Both Singapore and Ger Regionalliga Bayern on pause after poor results and not enough days to justify at present.

    Singapore I have more faith in long term and a little more data but odds normally high.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #1453

    A decent amount for a Tuesday coming up!

    0_1649116429811_aba6dad9-77b2-4707-ba99-9bd031c1b227-image.png

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #1454

    Ok so this is what my current data gave me for Sat:

    0_1649116100197_913c4230-f5ac-452b-9d61-2d65aef3c74b-image.png

    Not too far different from the actual.

    Only differences are Freiburg which was in outlier territory due to match odds. Peru & Argentina B need more data.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #1455

    New bank high - New stakes once more:

    0_1649102472755_297c8eca-3a53-4719-a84e-db7cfe9698a4-image.png

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #1456

    0_1649085745778_55666e53-2c5d-4450-bad6-f25f1c8b9432-image.png

    Hopefully get a couple tonight. Would be good.

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
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  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #1457

    Still a new bank high despite the latest setback:

    0_1649029673238_b2b2d226-f247-4639-b637-2fce7406731c-image.png

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
    1
  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #1458

    Made about £1 thanks to Roma🙄

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #1459

    0_1648980545945_65c6358f-f14d-41c7-b051-f8e54d132320-image.png

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
    0
  • Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard LatimerR Offline
    Richard Latimer
    wrote on last edited by
    #1460

    Today 7/8 and a new bank high although I'll be updating for a while:

    0_1648941239685_f687818f-bb0d-45c9-86ee-8730fb66ede4-image.png

    Trading Spreadsheet linked below
    https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0

    1 Reply Last reply
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