Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Sunday looks bigger and despite making a start it's going to take me a while.
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Done quite a bit of updating already. Saturday done:
PSV & Verona weren't taken due to being slight outliers. Good for the data that they both won anyway.
Hacken wasn't taken as Allsvenskan on slight pause until I get more positive data. Same with Beveren. Ignore Pittsburgh, Torque and Juniors, they are for the next update.
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This one tomorrow afternoon:
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Just going through the overnighters and can't find any prices for Rio Grande so will have to delete it. Was a win so not like I'm deleting a loss and stat padding.
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7/8 in the end and thankfully recovered from the beating in Pittsburgh.
+£1.97
Bank stands at £204.21
Staking for tomorrow
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I'm just adding these back in now. In the interest of transparency I'll document what I'm doing.
Pittsburgh had every reeason to go for it unless they really didn't care about playing at home in the playoffs. I stand by that one.
Rio Grande were 2-0 up and a goalless 2nd half suited them down to the ground although that's not th way it went with 3 more goals coming. El Paso on the other hand were still playing for an unlikely win so that one stays for tracking.
San Antonio needed a draw or a win and were already winning at HT. No 2nd goals required although they did come. Colorado on the other hand were playing for a win and could apparently go for broke. Game stays in for tracking.
Las Vegas Lights were out of contention for everything but Tampa Bay were still playing for overall leadership I believe which would give them a home game against the overall runners up at the end. 1-1 at HT wouldn't suit this. Format is tricky as hell haha!
Oakland Roots needed a win, were winning at HT and Tacoma Defiance were out of it with nothing to play for. This one removed on the basis nobody needed to score 2nd half.
LA Galaxy II weere drawing at Ht which enough for them if Oakland Roots won. As they were winning at HT and it stated that way there was never any need for them to push inn the 2nd despite the fact they ended up losing. Orange Country needed only a draw as well. Match removed.
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Keep looking into USL last night and rare but seems sofascore has different standings to the official site which suggests very strongly that Pittsburgh weree already in the playoffs but playing for a home tie which they would have got in the end with a win.
I'll add these back in. The loss was the loss but as far as I can see the trade was still actually a good one.
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Had to delete a couple. Homburg not on betfair and neither is Lublin in Poland. Not sure what betfair hasn't against Poland 2 this year. Was an ever present last season.
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Concerned about summer leagues after last night I just looked at Norway and Sweden. There are a few more games left yet so as far as I'm concerned that's still on the table but I will check individual games.
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Not completely happy with Austria 2. Liga at present either so scrap Juniors for today although that one is being tracked.
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I have completely removed all trace of the last matchday in USL. Luike I said, Pittsburgh was a mistake (first in a long while of this ilk) and I won't have it contaminating the data.
If anyone can tell me who had what to play for yesterday I will re-evaluate.
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@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
Last match of the season but I've just been looking for some info that they will care and Pittsburgh need a win to have a chance of finishing 2nd. LCS 0-0 @ 7.0
This was poor and I left the others alone even if would probably have been asleep anyway. Last matchday in this league and honestly I couldn't work out who was playing for what despite trying to find out.
Ironically there were no further losses.
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Just posting these overnighters for now. Rest will follow am:
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Last match of the season but I've just been looking for some info that they will care and Pittsburgh need a win to have a chance of finishing 2nd. LCS 0-0 @ 7.0
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
So bank is back to £192.24 and profit for the month is now back as a healthy +£40.97.
A good end to the month tomorrow and I can eclips the loss of last month on top of the £29.00 made in Aug. Things are heading in the right direction and the important thing is I'm recognising what I need to do to cut out the hiccups.
It's a question of when you try to rush things too much and shirk some of the work which can make a difference you end up standing still far more than you do going forward.
Putting a pause on not just leagues but clear outliers BEFORE they could hurt me is something I should have done last month when the wheels threatened to come off.......but better late than never.
Anyone who's been following this knows that in my current situation I've set aside £5.00 investment money each and every week. I can't afford to save a lot but any little additions to the pot while stakes are small will only help me get where I need to be quicker.
When that investment isn't going to increase the bank to a new high I roll it over to the next week. With that in mind, in the right circumstances and only the right circumstances, £10 is due this week.
Well the circumstances are right. £10.00 investment pushes me to a neew bank high of £202.24. The stakes will increase in accordance with daily compounding and keeping percentages the same. Stakes will never increase due to a 'winning run' and beyond the percentages set in stone by my written rules.
Stake will NOT reduce unless bank taken back to £131.46 as this is a 35% loss.
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@chris-osborne said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
Sweden on hold for time being. That one's a mistake. 10 selections but within that a loss.
I posted in the football thread about Norway, nearing the end of the season, Sweden is in a similar position, as would most Summer LEagues - MLS has virtually finished before they start the play offs. Could this be a factor in leagues such as Sweden etc in your data set?
Yes and no. States continues to be amazing. The only exceptions have been outliers. Numbers in the data that don't happen anywhere near enough to try and find a solution.
There was another goal in the Hacken game today so the league continues to head in the right direction. In the past I would have carried on with until the league was in the red. This is mere caution and it's already paying dividends. I fully expeect to be able to bring that league back in a while but I'm not taking any chances!
Also, Sweden has provided only 11 selections across the whole season so it's been ok but not prolific by any stretch of the imagination.
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@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
Sweden on hold for time being. That one's a mistake. 10 selections but within that a loss.
I posted in the football thread about Norway, nearing the end of the season, Sweden is in a similar position, as would most Summer LEagues - MLS has virtually finished before they start the play offs. Could this be a factor in leagues such as Sweden etc in your data set?
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6/6 +£13.08 full update to follow
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Sweden on hold for time being. That one's a mistake. 10 selections but within that a loss.
