Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

Full update:

More or less the same. Left out today was Kasimpasa based on it being outlier territory. Still only 2x qualifiers with ave as low as 1.5 for home team so it would remain an outlier. Nevertheless more important data.

Only 1 for tomorrow and I'll post in the evening.

[Richard Latimer]

Another 3/4 and I've just taken a look at the Mechelen game to see if I would do it again and yes I would. 100%!!

First 0-1 loss in Belgian Jupiler
Plenty more wins with higher home odds
Ave goals, home ave and home SH ave all in what I would consider the sweet spot
Over odds plenty high enough.

I won't say one of those weekends. Fri was decent enough and Sat/Sun just stopped me moving forward on that. Frustrating but looking at the big picture I'm in decent profit for Jan still and there have been a mountain of postponed games. Still one week and even if it is an international break I'm sure there will be a few trades.

[Richard Latimer]

Here's tomorrow:

Only 2-0 in Aus would facilitate a trade there so if I miss it from being asleep it's most likely not going to amount to a hill of beans!

[Richard Latimer]

Well here's what happened today in the big picture:

I went 3/4 for a 1pt loss.

On top of this Portugal has played itself into contention on the basis the odds are so good there and with 6 wins/0 losses at present even a loss will leeave the league in small profit.

Laliga continued the 100% record when 0-0 as a HT result is taken away. The home odds were in outlier territory today but it all adds to the data and makes the solid evn more solid!

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £199.41 - Current Bank £244.17 (+£8.39 for Dec):

There will be a full update later as always but loss of around 1pt today and Eng National league taken off the board temporarily.

Still profitable but not by enough and another quick loss could take it too close to break even. Need another few successful games there before I'll add it back in.

Ah what a conundrum. I'm still 89% on that league and another quick loss would leave me a pt to the good and put the league on pause for a time. However 1 more win and that league is still in a position of strength to grow so do I play the next qualifier knowing if it wins I would play the next anyway or do I pause for 1 game what is more than likely a pts green?!

I'll probably pause it.

[Richard Latimer]

There will be a full update later as always but loss of around 1pt today and Eng National league taken off the board temporarily.

Still profitable but not by enough and another quick loss could take it too close to break even. Need another few successful games there before I'll add it back in.

[Richard Latimer]

Just realised I accidentally added Ger regionalliga west. That one is a watch league. Also Union Berlin has way too low SHG ave.

[Richard Latimer]

Not league 2 yet, not enough data

[Richard Latimer]

[John Folan]

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £199.41 - Current Bank £244.17 (+£8.39 for Dec):

@chris-osborne I initially planned to do it until stakes reached more than the input but I'm over halfway there now and I need the excess in my normal bank more than I do here now so yeah that's it.

Milestone reached

[Richard Latimer]

New stakes again for tomorrow:

Todays results:

Will post up Saturdays tomorrow morning.

[Richard Latimer]

Genk obv mistake as game postponed on 19th.

[Richard Latimer]

[Richard Latimer]

So both todays were called off. Nothing for Thursday.

[Richard Latimer]

And a couple of potentials for tomorrow:

[Richard Latimer]

And todays 2:

[Richard Latimer]

These are the 3 updated from yesterday:

[Richard Latimer]

2/2 Bank £276.77

New stakes tomorrow:

[Richard Latimer]

Tomorrow's potentials:

[Richard Latimer]

Time's getting on and can't be bothered to update tonight right now so will do that tomorrow. Undersold myself for yeesterday as it was actually 5/5.

Augsburg came so so close and I know my micro analytical style has come in for quite a bit of stick but it's this that's turned things around for me. I follow the data in patterns wherever it leads and if that's only temporary then so be it.

For Augsburg it was a case of the home odds being 3.00. This is very close to the small odds range of 2.64-2.83 which has been a pig (I put it down to close teams in ability). Before I will trade anything I'm looking for 7 good trades at the end of each range. This had 6 good trades with odds over 2.83 and less than 3.02. 3.02 was basically my entry so as you can see it missed by fractions.

Since yesterdays fail in that game the poor range has been extended to 2.74-3.00 and nothing will be taken that doesn't hit 3.2 until such time as more positive data is unearthed so as to show it was just a blip then I will be looking at getting it down from 3.2 ever so slowly as long as I can show 7 positive trades since the last loss.

Now I wonder if that makes sense to anybody but me haha!