Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £184.41 - Current Bank £220.78 (+£6.57 for Nov):
LCS Besiktas 1-1 HT @ 6.0
Ends 2-1.
+£2.85
Bank £238.47 -
LCS Besiktas 1-1 HT @ 6.0
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Bank falls back to £235.62. Now, if I can somehow make it to £250 by the end of this year I will be immensely happy and view this is a springboard to better things made possible by more sensible choices.
Loss of £15.29 on the day.
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1/2 today with a late late goal in Utrecht saving my blushes and keeping me on course, just, for a green Dec.
I learnt something else from the data today also. Something which perhaps should have been blindingly obvious but.....
At the end of the FH in Karagumruk they finished with 9 men. Surely a 2nd goal should be a shoe in for 11 against 9. Well no, it turns out. Also, a quick look back through my data shows 45 qualifiers with FH reds. NOT A SINGLE ONE WITH 2 REDS. Talk about an outlier but this was a massive one. I repeat, not a single qualifier from over 1K games where there were 2 FH red.
Needless to say I won't be doing that again and in hindsight it most certainly did NOT qualify.
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Tomorrow looks interesting. I dare say the last interesting day before Christmas.
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I can't put anything else into this for a time and in any case I'm over halfway to the point where I said I wouldn't be investing. Think my plan will be to invest another £20 max in the next month and only then if I need to.
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@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £184.41 - Current Bank £220.78 (+£6.57 for Nov):
Just this for tonight:
And it's a winner.
+£2.85
Bank now £250.91 -
Just this for tonight:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Nothing for today
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Slow day but 3/3 and still in the green for Dec.
+£8.55
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I forgot to say that today was +£11.40 and bank is again £239.51
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Football slowly drying up on the way to Christmas so what happens tomorrow will be massive. Can't really expect for a winning weekend anymore but I can get back close to where I was at the beginning of Friday if the reequired HT scenarios appear. Currently bank is £6.06 in the green for December.
Ideally I can flesh it out but what I don't want to happen is for it to go the other way. Of course if it does it does, I know anything can happen but if I stick to the plan, stick to the data and don't ignore any concerns then it's probable rather than possible.
Finish off the year well and I can point to 4 months profit and only 1 very bad month close to the beginning. It's a springboard for what has to happen next.
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6/6 today in terms of the actual data. Melbourne was missed as already mentioned many times over and Scotland League One gets another win although lots more data needed before the league can be considered. Then it will probably be a case of poor liquidity but who knows.
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Despite a horrendous start to the weekend yesterday and missing the Aussie league this morning I am back ahead for the month precariously. It's a small amount but oh so very very important psychologically as much as anything else.
With the only potential left for the day looking like being no good at HT it's 4/4 today and very welcome after yesterday.
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Here's the rest:
Annoying missing the Melbourne game but when you've been sleeping on a mattress as long as I have and you get a chance to sleep in an actual bed (my son was away at his grandparents) you find it incredibly hard to get up haha!
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And I missed my first one today. Not going well this weekend haha!
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Posted in wrong place earlier haha
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I'll sort the rest out tomorrow but a couple of early Aussie games. Now I've been saying this for the last couple of weekends at least but sooner rather than later things have to click into place again.
Following this evenings which at least one of the losses could potentially have been avoided it really is as tight and efficient looking as it could be.
Alll scorelines have an exceptionally good s/r with only 0-1 letting it down a little. Most of the losses for 0-1 are contained within a range of home odds 2.16-2.46 but unlike with the 2-0, which saw Glentoran take the foot off the pedal at 2-0 and according to Keith hardly break a sweet, the strike rate for this medium size sample of 34 games is still a respectable 85% which wouldn't be losing alot and could still recover.
Outliers are still there but hopefully I've reached a balance where the most likely to become something more than outliers are profited from and the big numbers likely to fall by the wayside are avoided.
Things like tonight could still happen in relation to odds at either end of the scale but it's going to level out in the end. Before tonight my lowest odds for the 0-1 were 1.61 and the point where I had 10 qualifying selections all green was 1.68. Tonight it's lowest 1.64 and 10 selections @ 1.69 so it's tightening in from there being 7 ticks between outlier or no outlier to 5.
All these little things will help in the long run despite it seeming incredibly frustrating at the time.
I'm trying to reign in the frustration. Have been for a while. I'm not shouting and screaming or blaming luck as the more the data develops the less luck appears to have with anything to do with it.
VAR and missed pens etc. So what, if it was the right call there's usually more than one opportunity to put the ball in the back of the onion bag!
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Well I'm only about 3 matches away from finishing tonights update
2/4 and a bad night.
I had already upped the home odds of 0-1 score to 1.6 as below it had performed poorly and still it struggles around the 1.6 mark.
Dusseldorf were 1.63.
I've now upped it to 1.64 (removed 3 trades, no more) and we'll see how that goes.
The other significant change after tonight is something I've seen coming for a little while (even made a notee about it on the bottom of my sheet) in that 2-0 scoreline has so far seemed to have a very black spot between 1.55-1.66 home odds. Talking 24 trades now and a s/r of less than 70%.
I don't know what, it doesn't seem hugely logical (I'm sure I could come up with some half baked theory if I tried hard enough but that's all it would be) but the facts remain the facts and a thoroughly excellent set of results is being brought down by this phenomenom.
0-1 is now the poorest scoreline and that's still over 94%. Really no idea what could be done to bring this inline so for now I'll stay out of it and see where the data takes me.
Now with all the random tweaks people can see it could be argued it will be one thing after another until the whole crumbles as an illogical butchered mess. I don't see that. There's still 1,003 lines of qualifying data and most of it fits my expectations.
In the end as medium sized data turns into big data there will be less/no tweaks and then we'll see the true potential. As is, time to play catchup again this weekend.
-£4.83 for Dec so still a good chance in almost 2 weeks to turn that green.
