Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £199.41 - Current Bank £326.71 (+£53.50 for Mar):
1/1 on the 2nd half goals and 5/5 on the over 1.5 I'm currently looking at but not trading yet.
Data for that is on my sheet by the way.
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1/1 on the 2nd half goals and 6/6 on the over 1.5 I'm currently looking at but not trading yet.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Tonight:
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Realised with everything going on I've not posted an update in ages.
Firstly Saprissa in Costa Rica - That league now fermented as far as I''m concerned.
Ger Regionalliga Bayern still on pause
Singapore still in there after I realised my loss there could eeasily have been avoided and should have been.Grasshopers v Luzern a 2-0 special so wouldn't take going forward currently.
Peru is almost there
South Korea has a little way to go.
FC Juniors was on the outliers.
Nowhere near enough data in Ireland yet.
Hamburger a 2-0 so no good moving forward at present.
Jap J2 - Need more data.
Paraguay - Need more data.
Slovenia - Need much more data.
Villarreal a 2-0 loss - Not for the future at present.There were a couple of other 2-0 losses in Italy and Austria which brought about my decision.
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A bit today - No 2-0 Scorelines!!
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@richard-latimer yeah exactly. It's also easier to explain with hindsight, but ultimately the golden rule is always try and protect your bank. Sometimes it's better to pull yourself out of the firing line if it means you can regroup and go again with more confidence.
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@dan-mackinnon said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £199.41 - Current Bank £326.71 (+£53.50 for Mar):
@richard-latimer I was also on the Villareal vs Valencia trade. With hindsight, you could say it was a risky trade as Villareal have European ambitions so weren't going to expend themselves. Valencia have nothing to play for in the league and have a Copa Del Rey final coming up so there mind might be on that. With the game 2-0 at HT maybe both teams saw the game was over so held back? Now that we know it finished 2-0 that's an easy explanation. However, watching the game it seemed quite open. Valencia had a goal disallowed, Villareal missed a sitter, Valencia tackled the goalkeeper late in the game but couldn't finish.
I don't think it was a bad trade, I think it was just a bad result.
Taking the other game I traded that night - Liverpool vs Man Utd - also 2-0 at HT, both teams knew that match was over, but Liverpool found opportunities and it finished 4-0.
That's good to know. I've not exactly given up on the 2-0 scoreline but for now I'm needing to play it safe and logic is against it. Had it not been for a a couple of others in the month it wouldn't be so bad. That said, in the longterm I'm aiming for set and forget over 1.5 and it would have been on that and a winner!
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@richard-latimer I was also on the Villareal vs Valencia trade. With hindsight, you could say it was a risky trade as Villareal have European ambitions so weren't going to expend themselves. Valencia have nothing to play for in the league and have a Copa Del Rey final coming up so there mind might be on that. With the game 2-0 at HT maybe both teams saw the game was over so held back? Now that we know it finished 2-0 that's an easy explanation. However, watching the game it seemed quite open. Valencia had a goal disallowed, Villareal missed a sitter, Valencia tackled the goalkeeper late in the game but couldn't finish.
I don't think it was a bad trade, I think it was just a bad result.
Taking the other game I traded that night - Liverpool vs Man Utd - also 2-0 at HT, both teams knew that match was over, but Liverpool found opportunities and it finished 4-0.
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Got day off today and tomorrow as doing childcare so time to update all my data. This month is going to be a loss for me in terms of where I'm at (first in 6 months) made a little heavier by the fact I'm having to take mistakes, and things like the realisation of the 2-0 thing becoming a concern, on the chin.
With the fact I'm trading to earn a full time PAYE salary with my cousin I need his money to rise even if my own isn't in the short term.
So my money goes down a littlle and hiis continues to show an upward curve. I'm confident it's temporary as happy with all other scorelines and 2-0 has been something that's not felt entirely right for a while now.
In the longterm I'm actually quite confident in the over 1.5 thing I've just started working on but too many times in the past I've raced to drop one thing and hit another. Those days are in the past!
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Since 26 Feb on the really high scorelines 2 losses
On the 0-1 3 losses
On the 1-0 2 losses
On the 2-1 4 losses
On the 0-0 2 losses
On the 1-1 2 lossesIt's defintely becoming a bit of an issue now. Currently at least!
Whole point of this which I almost left out is 6 losses @ 2-0
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I'm trying to go back over all my lost trades since a couple months back to see which is the most prevalent scoreline.
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@chris-osborne said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £199.41 - Current Bank £326.71 (+£53.50 for Mar):
@richard-latimer Do you think this is due to end of season syndrome in winter leagues with Summer Leagues only ust starting?
Not really. It's only one scoreline. Last seasons data is so much better as well.
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@richard-latimer Do you think this is due to end of season syndrome in winter leagues with Summer Leagues only ust starting?
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I'm considering pausing all the 2-0 scorelines for now as they've been such a killer in a couple of otherwise good leagues recently. I've pulled them out for future but then it's not helping the here and the now. It's really the only score I have HUGE reservations on currently but it's dragged this month down massively!
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FHG is already something I'm tracking on my other data but the selections seem limited as generally needs to be a strong home fave. Plenty of the games I'm looking at are 0-0 by HT like Western Utd this morning. I don't mind higher liabilities as I would want a very high strike rate. Odds are already less than the SHG.
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Hi RIchard just having a quick look at your 1.5 data you have been testing. Very impressive early start mate.
I just have an idea that i myself found useful with my over 1.5 filters.
To go in at KO is a fairly high liability for over 1.5 so i was wondering if you would like to collect data on these for a FHG.if you find a good strike rate for these games have a FHG it could be something for you to look at. To start with just record which games have a FHG.
I personally found my own over 1.5 selections had a high number of games missing out with an early goal ( i did enter at 1.51 odds) and so i use the same selections but for laying the draw in the half time market where my ROI per match is a lot higher per match.
Just a thought mate and you never know but is something i noticed from tracking my results.
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I now have the time I need for trading and also a little something to make me happy as things have been re-ignited on a slower basis. Best of both worlds for now:
Without further ado:
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I am working on an over 1.5 in the background that combines H2H and current ave goals. Very good first day. Want to get a good 3 months data and a few hundred selections before I get carried away.
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Bank Holiday Monday:
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Just posting before bed:
