Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

james everard

Afternoon Richard , i hope you are well?
Do you not stop trading leagues that are coming to an end or have you found that makes no difference with your results ?

Richard Latimer

And Lay Away:

Nothing under 2.62 and nothing over 11.0

Richard Latimer

Going to post a proper update for the weekend as soon as I get chance. Here's Mondays anyway. Lay Under 1.5:

SWI 5.1-6.4
SAU 7.2-11.0

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

Full list:

Man City Women's unlikely based on odds.

AUS 4.6+
COL Postponed

And I don't care, I'm going to jump the gun. As things stand Friday was an aberration. Today looking good again from the 2 selections which made it.

Richard Latimer

@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

Lay Under 1.5:

GER 5.9-8.4
ITA 4.1-7.4
BEL 4.6-11.0
FRA 5.8-7.4
SPA 4.7-7.4

Another losing day on these thanks to Real Madrid but managed to avoid Bologna as a low odds loser. It's almost comical how much of an impact the odds are having on my days right now.

Pushed up the barometer around odds in Spain higher than it was. Basically got 2 selections at those odds over a year and now one of those is a loss.

Richard Latimer

Lay Under 1.5:

GER 5.9-8.4
ITA 4.1-7.4
BEL 4.6-11.0
FRA 5.8-7.4
SPA 4.7-7.4

Richard Latimer

Full list:

Man City Women's unlikely based on odds.

AUS 4.6+
COL Postponed

Richard Latimer

Laying Antwerp in Belgium. More to follow but this starts in a min.

Richard Latimer

3/3 on away lays yesterday. Removing Esiliiga as no liquidity.

Less said about the overs the better.

Certain leagues need to do one. Also going to need to find a way of dealing with these 6am kickoffs that keep Shrinking in price.

Richard Latimer

I'm fed up with France. It's still kinda hanging in there but less than 4pts profit in 1 year now is pretty crap.

Richard Latimer

After a pisspoor day in the away lays yesterday and this morning I need to be sensible. Using mid stake for Kazak game even though odds in low bracket.

In fact strike that. When I first started to trade these in reality my thought was aggressive aggressive aggressive. Would go up and down while overs went up slower and more consistently.

They have actually exceeded my expectations and I think I need to be just a tiny bit more sensible.

If I had done that yesterday then the low odds point of Argentina and high odds point of South Korea would have been avoided very simply.

In short it's a low odds point in Kazakhstan and I'm leaving it completely.

Richard Latimer

All league appear to have their ideal pricepoint. Certainly for the stats I am using at any rate.

I actually feel far more comfortable when I've found that pricepoint than when they all seem to be doing ok. Only takes one night to find a couple on the bounce.

Argentina I had that price point but a quick delve showed that actually anything under 4.0 had lost prior to yesterday. And so the trend continued.

Then it was Ulsan's turn. Bad enough as almost invariably any lay I put on overnight suffers a price reduction in just 5-6 hours or less. It is hard to get value. At any rate Ulsan lost 1-2 at odds that should have been attainable @5.3 and low and behold. Yes, this is the highest qualifying price I've seen since tracking began in that league.

The K League appears to operate better at lower odds.

Richard Latimer

After another pisspoor start on the overs in April I've just about made it back in to profit. Let's see what today brings:

The away lays on the other hand took a massive hit yesterday so while both are technically in profit for April that profit is down substantially there.

Richard Latimer

Lay Away:

ITA 4.7+
COS 5+
COL 5.1+
MEX 5+

Nothing under 2.62 and nothing over 11.0

Richard Latimer

Lay Under 1.5:

GER 7.2-8.4
SPA 7.2-11.0
ENG 4.4-11.0
FRA 5.8-7.4
BRA 3.65 Max
MEX 7.2-11.0
USA 5.5-11.0

Nothing under 3.15 and nothing over 11.0

Richard Latimer

Lay Away:

ARG must be 3.5 or more
Remainder 2.62+

Richard Latimer

Lay Under 1.5:

Need 3.15-11.0 price other than NET which is 5.1-6.0.

Richard Latimer

One over in the Saudi league this evening posted in the competition thread. Ended 2-0.

Richard Latimer

Away Lays:

None of these likely based on current odds. All need to come out to around 5's to lay

Richard Latimer

Lay Under 1.5:

For ECU I'm looking for a min price of 3.85 and for MEX it's min 4.0

This isn't just a lay price exactly either. It's more of a look at the market and garner what's potentially achievable price depending on liquidity etc...
Mexico will be difficult as it's a 4am kickoff. Just need to do my best with prices on that one.