Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Fingers crossed it's finally time to get rolling!
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Nothing to see here......move along
Tomorrow is another day
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@keith-anderson luckily they only stimulate mine haha!
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@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £199.41 - Current Bank £244.17 (+£8.39 for Dec):
Certainly enough for me. Most people say my spreadsheets make their brain hurt or something along those lines haha!
They do!
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Certainly enough for me. Most people say my spreadsheets make their brain hurt or something along those lines haha!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer Now that is an interesting SS Richard.Very helpful for newbies and those who are still learning. I see there are 2 Leagues, NET Eerste, GER Regionalliga Sudwest, and English National League that I don't have.
Is there good liquidity in these markets
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3 potentials:
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Tomorrow equally destitute!
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@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £199.41 - Current Bank £244.17 (+£8.39 for Dec):
It's the big leagues tomorrow.....Cardiff Met and Barry!
Cancelled.....That's me out tomorrow!
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It's the big leagues tomorrow.....Cardiff Met and Barry!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Ok, good day again:
Someone said recently how things can be going great and then they can see something and try as they might they can't unsee it. When the genie is out of the bottle etc....
Well there was nothing I could do about yesterday unless I want to throw out every single loss (would make the data highly unreliable and unrealistic) but having looked again it's the 2nd loss @ 2-1 HT scoreline from only 6 selections in the Eerste. This would very much be a losing proposition.
It's not unreasonable to believe these statistics will correct themselves over time but I've benefitted by being cautious many times and when I ignore red flags I usually regret it.
Also, if a poorly performing league can be rescued by excluding certain scorelines then doesn't it stand to reason a league in good profit could potentially be improved using the same logic?!
Long story short, 2-1 in the Eerste is on the back burner until I have data to show it's profitable which in fairness means another 10 without loss.
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No revisions on todays loss. It was prime fodder and simply lost. It's statistics for you. Not bad luck just statisitics:
I took Villarreal when I realised the only 2 losses in Laliga were at 0-0 although going with my updated plan on outliers I may not do so in same circumstances. Home odds of 2.57 were just outside where I would want them to be.
Braga SHG is good for future as now 4 selections strong in Portuguese Top League. But no actual trade as yet. Will post up for Monday in a bit.
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I've been working through my sheet and made the decision to handle outliers in the same way as I'm now looking at leagues. I want 7 clear winning trades at the beginning or end of each stat/criteria. Hopefully this is the right balance between maximising output and protecting the bank against unknown quantities.
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One thing I've noticed in many leagues is it's not necessarily the league (sometimes it is) but quite possibly the HT score. This may all correct itself over the long term but I doubt it. For example France Ligue 1 with a draw at HT has been an incredibly poor proposition.
So with that in mind as I start getting both more positive and negative results in certain leagues I'm also looking for patterns on where the losses are coming from. A league ruled out seeing another loss can actually be a big positive.
I'm also not going for a huge amount of selections in all leagues now as many of the bigger ones have plenty and a few of the others are moving along nicely. What I figure is, as long as the next loss will still see the league in profit I'll take it (clearly this wouldn't be the case with for example 100 selections and a marginal profit on that league - I'm talking only about leagues with a small amount of data).
The reason I bring all this up is after seeing Villarreal drawing 1-1 @ HT and knowing the overall picture in Laliga was substandard, I took a look at the breakdown. Only 2 losses had come at 0-0 with Real Madrid at home. I had 7 positive results other than this and felt confident enough to lay under 2.5 at what was some very nice odds.
Weekend was a bust but this was a positive.
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Sunday Fare:
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-£4.11 today and bank reduces to £247.88
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And so these 3 remain on the charts:
If it looks like I'm just deleting any losers that would be wrong. I am however systematically going through the data after each day and if it looks like anything can be tweaked as we go then that is what is happening. With this it was easy as already explained. When dealing with outliers there is always the possibility of putting through an amendment before the next day and that's all that has happened here.
Accrington today is in a small odds range where I wouldn't be repeating the trade until such time as the data corrects itself if that even happens. I have my theories why it won't but we'll see.
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Almost went to plan today but small hiccup meant ave win turned into small loss. Accrington drawing 1-1 @ HT with home odds right on the edge but odds are the one thing it's hard to rule out outliers on because they change so much between different scorelines.
Before today the smalll odds range of 2.64-2.73 for a 1-1 was a no go. Accrington was 2.81 but inbetween 2.73 and 2.81 there was only another 3 games meaning that now the range of 2.64-2.81 is to be avoided.
My only explanation for this is 2 teams of comparable strength. I won't run from the data. I'll follow it and if it leads back here in the end so be it. It's trial and error to an extent but there's far less of it than there used to be.
So for me 3/4 and small loss.
Corrected data 3/3
Just updating everything now and will post up full summary in a bit.
