Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £184.41 - Current Bank £220.78 (+£6.57 for Nov):
2/2 again tonight.
+£5.70nice one!
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2/2 again tonight.
+£5.70Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £184.41 - Current Bank £220.78 (+£6.57 for Nov):
Not EPL game. Tracking only there.
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Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
I've laid down a few rules for myself which I think will help when dealing with things that haven't come up enough so far:
It won't stop all the losses on these but by and large the losses have come from the extreme numbers rather than those just a little higher or lower than most.
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As much as I love to update the winning days then I absolutely need to update the losing ones. Missed pen in Young Boys but that's no excuse. It came before 60mins and I won't blame luck.
Typical that it was what I would deem an outlier but if I leave them they win and if I don't they lose so I must remain consistent and plough through this particular issue which will iron itself out over time. Until then there will be bumps but I will still profit of that I'm very confident.
Well over 1K selections on my selected leagues and selected criteria now so the bones of it are in place.
The other match was Gladbach with a 1-1 HT.
1/2
-£14.87
Bank reduces to £244.79 -
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2/2 and win in Anderlecht that I didn't quite get to. Fell outside of the range for home SHG scored ave and wasn't sure if I was even going to enter anyway as Anderlecht hadn't been flying in the game from what I could see.
+£5.60
Bank £259.66New stakes to be calculated for tomorrow......and.......
I've finally reached 1 whole years data. Not a single day has been missed that I'm aware of although some leagues I didn't start collecting immediately and much of the Sat 3pm stuff was missing from last season.
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A few potentials for tomorrow:
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Just the one today. Winner in Roma.
1/1
+£2.80
Bank £254.06
Stakes same -
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I've spent a fair old while this afternoon looking at odds for different countries as many of the ones that don't happen as much or where I would like a little more data are much better in terms of price.
There's a real feeling that the balance is quite right at the moment having started off way too loose and perhaps tigtened up too much on the leagues.
Where my data shows enough to suggest that the league will remain at least 1pt ahead in profit should it lose I'm going to play it. This opens out Eng League One amongst a few others.
The outliers are becoming far too much of a common occurrence to simply let them go so unless the overall goals is 4+ or home ave 2.7(home sh ave the top quaifying end of each scoreline) I'm going to start playing them.
Not only that but when it falls out of the known range and there is no negative data either then this is where I'll try and get on for a better price around 60th minute. These truly are outliers as the criteria hasn't moved alot in quite some time.
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A quick midway through the month update. Total investment in this particular project is now £199.41 since start of Aug.
Bank £251.26
Profit £51.85.
In 4.5 months it's not great but at least I can see it is going up.
It's also around £15 up for Dec so far. Again not great but at least it's green and not red.
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@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £184.41 - Current Bank £220.78 (+£6.57 for Nov):
In terms of what I said about a years data, tomorrow there is only 1 potential for me in a proven league. After that it will have been 1 whole year.
I will maintain what I'm doing with the leagues. Until they're proven they are purely for tracking. Also when data falls outside of the range on my list of criteria I will only track this even if no losses have been recorded at these data points.
Outliers are too many, will take too long to clear completely and need to be brought back in (maybe with the excaption of a couple of big numbers!).
I believe many people would view a years data as enough to be making some strong and confident decisions. I will also have a minimum of 998 trades by then in proven leagues or those doing well but with not enough data yet.
Actually it's 2 more days before I have 1 yr of data. Would be great if I could hit 1k of trades by then.
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In terms of what I said about a years data, tomorrow there is only 1 potential for me in a proven league. After that it will have been 1 whole year.
I will maintain what I'm doing with the leagues. Until they're proven they are purely for tracking. Also when data falls outside of the range on my list of criteria I will only track this even if no losses have been recorded at these data points.
Outliers are too many, will take too long to clear completely and need to be brought back in (maybe with the exception of a couple of big numbers!).
I believe many people would view a years data as enough to be making some strong and confident decisions. I will also have a minimum of 998 trades by then in proven leagues or those doing well but with not enough data yet.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
And here we go again!
First of all, I'll just say that i'm coming up to a years data and it may be time to try and find a better balance with these outliers as like I've said in the past, they are accounting for a lot of selections still.
My record today was 4/5 and a small loss of just under 2pts. The overall system record for today is 9/10.
Hamburger I got
Karlsruher was not just an outlier but was outside a current range in the home odds for the 2-1 scoreline. It would now be considered an outlier.
Oldenburg was on a league I wanted more data from. I now consider there to be enough data to proceed.
Verona I got
Servette an outlier
Besiktas I got
Sparta Prague I got
Gent an unlikely loser
Guabira an outlier (missed the goal by fractions)
Club Brugge an outlierSo I hit half of the now qualifiers
had 3 outliers that didn't match in timePerhaps moving forward I may look to take the outliers as I'm not sure there's too much reason not to.
I could try for a 60th minute entry on anything that falls outside of the given ranges without falling into a range with proven losers.
I don't know, it's frustrating but the good thing is when the day is done my data is almost all green which means that sooner or later this is what I'll be seeing in practice.
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Small red today. Only one loss but 3 or 4 outliers that scored too early. This is the problem right now and it's frustrating. But money is being made, just slower than it will be when the outliers are minimised.
