Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

So every day I'm getting closer and closer to what will be a very workable product. Where the only tweaks come from a small combination of the basic scoring/conceding stats.

There are no more stats I intend to look at. I'm looking at enough as is.

The tweaks are getting less but the margins are getting finer.

After last night's debacle in Iceland I did what I always do. Sit down and see what, if anything, went wrong. It was easy to see pretty quickly and it came from me being tired and trying to find a way to streamline my selection process easier.

I'd highlighted low/high figures in conditional formatting but hadn't taken into account a) the excluded numbers were still being counted in this so it skewed what I was looking at and b) the shade of green on display was already showing it to be a high number.

If this is confusing then basically I missed that I was looking at a bit of a statistical outlier (unusually high scoring figures for both home AND away). Not used that word in a while haha!

I hate those things as many will mock me for!

Sometimes the simplest solutions come in the easiest form. I simply need to go through the stats in question and put Amber (warning so to speak) in the applicable cells. Would have definitely saved money last night and found another potential over lay.

Well it found a potential over lay for if the situation comes up again but it didn't help my bank this time.

[Richard Latimer]

Lay Under 1.5:

[Richard Latimer]

@Richard-Latimer said in 2022 was a small loss in the end - Let's see if 2023 is the year!!!:

Lay Under 1.5:

1-2

[Richard Latimer]

Lay Under 1.5:

[Richard Latimer]

It actually shows how bad my overs have performed in May (or how badly i have managed them) that my unders (1.5 over lays) have gone 50/50 and I'm still only around one and a bit points up in May.

I still have every confidence.

[Richard Latimer]

Lay Under 1.5:

[Richard Latimer]

2-0 and the tiniest tiniest new bank high

[Richard Latimer]

One more today. Lay Under 1.5 Ranheim

[Richard Latimer]

Lay Under 1.5 Ajax

[Richard Latimer]

@Richard-Latimer said in 2022 was a small loss in the end - Let's see if 2023 is the year!!!:

Lay Under 1.5:

3-3

[Richard Latimer]

Lay Under 1.5:

[Richard Latimer]

Quiet Saturday. Lay Under 1.5:

[Richard Latimer]

Getting set early for the weekend so I can chill tomorrow evening onwards. Here are Fridays. All under 1.5 lays:

I'll post Saturdays later tonight and potentially even Sundays if I can get them done in time.

[Richard Latimer]

The over lays are now exactly 50% for May which given the odds....is brilliant. And I missed one Iceland. Plus these have materialised from areas that were failing in the unders lays so there were potentially more.

[Richard Latimer]

@Richard-Latimer said in 2022 was a small loss in the end - Let's see if 2023 is the year!!!:

Football thread has gone a bit quiet of recent so I'm going to post here in addition.

Overnight Lay Over 1.5:

Real Salt Lake

0-0 and new bank high

[Richard Latimer]

Football thread has gone a bit quiet of recent so I'm going to post here in addition.

Overnight Lay Over 1.5:

Real Salt Lake

[Richard Latimer]

The under 3.5 could be ready to go by start of winter leagues but it's just too much work right now and I'm going to have to shelve it. Have to put all my eggs in the over 1.5 and under 1.5 basket as that's what's most developed and takes less time currently.

I won't get rid of the data but there will be a large hole when I come back to it.

[Richard Latimer]

The month that was April. Still areas that come up to be tweaked slightly but also some startling discoveries in terms of laying short prices. -1.45%ROI

[Richard Latimer]

March, the month I discovered the Over 1.5 lay which has already been massive!!

[Richard Latimer]

After a horrendous mid period I've pulled it back and come out of March with a plus.

Will post full update later!