Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

Plenty of potentials and not a single promoted/relegated team to look out for today:

[Richard Latimer]

Something I should have done a while ago is look properly at the matches where promoted/relegated teams were involved. I defintely don't just want to dismiss them as put together it's well over 60 selections and other than a couple of bad apples they perform well.

What most of them are however and how I should be treating them is, outliers. Only the 2-0 HT scoreline has over 10 selections.

From now on, until I can exclude the wheat from the chaff, I'll look at any like this as a (approx) 60 minute entry at lower odds.

If it comes to it and I end up excluding them all one by one so be it.

[Richard Latimer]

@chris-osborne I go 10 games so yeah, not quite at the halfway point for most yet. It's still a consideration for me until every team has played 20 games in a season (10 home, 10 away)

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer At this state in a season surely the fact that a team was promoted or relegated should no longer be a consideration

[Richard Latimer]

In a piece of news which does nothing to change the overall picture it might be a question of promoted teams again in the Verl game (Ger 3. Liga) rather than the 1.5 home ave. Typically enough there was another game at 1.5 today I believe and that one was a winner.

What hadn't happened before today (in almost 1 yr) is the home team going behind 0-3 to a promoted away team.

[Richard Latimer]

As with any Saturday it's going to take me a while to make a full update but I want to do as much as I can in advance of that.

Started out well with Erzerum and then came a double in Ger 3. Liga. 1/2 there but the loser was an outlier where I had deliberately got involved at lower odds (4.0) as I've chosen to do in these circumstances so while it was a blow it wasn't that bad and the day still plenty of chance to go well.

The criteria that made this an outlier was home ave of 1.5 (something that seems to be slowly eradicating across most scorelines) on the multipe goals scorelines. It has now been set to 1.6 for the outlier and 1.7 for the non outlier. Hope that makes sense.

At the same time there was a trade on Ferencvaros which came in very quickly.

After that Leverkusen was a quick scorer and Hoffeenheim (another outlier) scored a couple of minutes prior to the trade being matched I would imagine. This was also a vAR check but in truee shithouse style it stood and I was denied.

Last 2 trades were Young Boys and Club Brugge.

Young Boys a win and just when it looked like a profit had been secured going 4-2 from 3-2 VAR reared up again and cancelled this one out.

I was surprised to see that in almost one whole year I only have a 3-2 HT scoreline on 3 occasions before today. That's not to suggest I want to rule them out as I don't. The whole point of blocking these high scoring ones together is they happen so infrequently that any data on it's own is almost worthless. Together there are plenty and the s/r is good.

That said, I find it infinitely better to remove certain things from the firing line before they happen again rather than wait until after like I may have done in the past.

The thing with this game is it's the only 3-2 scoreline where the away team had been promoted to a new league. For now I will exclude these with the potential that one day it could be re-included.

This does nothing to today but I'm always working on how to improve going forward.

Fact is a good day tomorrow and I'm back in front for the month. Before today was on a good run so time to pick it up again.

Bank £220.79
-£10.75 for the day

[Richard Latimer]

VAR screwed a profit today and set the bank back a little. Update to come later.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £184.41 - Current Bank £220.78 (+£6.57 for Nov):

LCS Erzerumspor 2-1 @ 4.4

3-1

[Richard Latimer]

[Richard Latimer]

LCS Erzerumspor 2-1 @ 4.4

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £184.41 - Current Bank £220.78 (+£6.57 for Nov):

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £184.41 - Current Bank £220.78 (+£6.57 for Nov):

For a Friday my potentials are looking very sparse. Not a single dutch game on there which is unheard of:

A couple of cancelled fixtures too. I literally have one potential.

Goal at the death for Honved.

That's another +£2.69 and bank back up to £231.54

Of course everything can change in one day but so far it's been a good start to Dec despite limited trades so far.

+£10.76

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £184.41 - Current Bank £220.78 (+£6.57 for Nov):

For a Friday my potentials are looking very sparse. Not a single dutch game on there which is unheard of:

A couple of cancelled fixtures too. I literally have one potential.

Goal at the death for Honved.

[Richard Latimer]

For a Friday my potentials are looking very sparse. Not a single dutch game on there which is unheard of:

A couple of cancelled fixtures too. I literally have one potential.

[Richard Latimer]

Yesterday was +£2.69

Today 2/2 +£5.38

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £184.41 - Current Bank £220.78 (+£6.57 for Nov):

Just these potentials tonight:

Was upstairs changing daughters bed and JUST got back in time for Real Potosi.

[Richard Latimer]

Just these potentials tonight:

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £184.41 - Current Bank £220.78 (+£6.57 for Nov):

Not posted the potentials today but Bolivar qualifies as an outlier.

Attempting to lay 2-1 @ 3.8

3-1 and a good start to the month.

[Richard Latimer]

Not posted the potentials today but Bolivar qualifies as an outlier.

Attempting to lay 2-1 @ 3.8

[Martin]

@richard-latimer on the right tracks, good work keep it up!

[Richard Latimer]

Somewhere along the line in Aug I made a mistake totalling p/l when I should have let betfair calculate it for me. It's impossible to see exactly what that was anymore but it's a couple of quid at most.

I know the starting amount in August was £89.41 so my title is misleading. Going to sort that out. I know by the end of Aug I had deposited £35.00 in August. (checked my statements tonight - I'm not counting anything before Aug as it was essentially a new venture at that point and it's misleading for me).

After winnings of around £30.00 in Aug and the £35.00 bank deposits the bank had made it from £89.41 - £155.05.

I can be 100% sure that my losses in Sept were - £45.96
I can also be 100% sure that my profit in Oct was +£42.94
And although I though it was more I can 100% say my profit for Nov was £6.57

Deposits Sept through Nov amount to a further £60 so it's £95.00 in total + the £89.41 I started with.

So to summarise

£184.41 total investment on this project
Current bank £220.78
£220.78 less £184.41 = £36.37

It's a lot better than I thought anyway.