Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:
Decided to take the under in Venezuela. Stats look good. Let's see how it goes!
Hmmm.......not a great start
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Decided to take the under in Venezuela. Stats look good. Let's see how it goes!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Sheet updated for tomorrow.
4 overs, 2 of which are in largely untested Ireland Div 1.
1 under overnight in Venezuela which I'll probably leave well enough alone as long as that league isn't in profit.
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@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:
Regardless of any of that there's 3 more unders going overnight. One is in Peru and right now I'm not sure if this league is in profit or not depending on where I go with certain exclusions.
Sheet updated.
Columbia odds too low but the other 2 won.
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Regardless of any of that there's 3 more unders going overnight. One is in Peru and right now I'm not sure if this league is in profit or not depending on where I go with certain exclusions.
Sheet updated.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Analyse analyse analyse......There's small samples within my larger sample in the unders which I'm not completely happy with it.......I said from the beginning this time that if it smelt a little funny I'd remove it as unwanted outlier. Going back and forth and toying with the idea. Is there meaningful data to be found from small datasets hidden within larger numbers??!!
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Disappointing again after being goalless at ht.
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Just the one under tomorrow and it's an overnighter in Peru. Sheet updated.
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Paraguay continues to be good. 0-2 final scoreline.
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Starts 00:40 by the way so not much time until kick-off.
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Correction:
That's the problem looking at both unders and overs. Attributing stats and rules to one and not the other. One game in Paraguay qualifies as an over but I was looking at it as an under.
Sheet updated.
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Absolutely zilch for tomorrow!
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Today result in Ireland right out of the blue. 100% transparent, I missed it as thought it was later for some reason so while it will appear in the system it won't appear in my actual bets.
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Game in Ecudor I didn't bet on also coming good.0-1 in the 90th.
Only 1 tomorrow (it's an under) but looks like good stats. Fingers crossed.
Sheet updated - any questions, ask.
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With the last result in Bolivia the unders as they are now performed well enough. Importantly though, even with those selections now removed the actual selections placed for real did slightly better than break even.
A good day overall.
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It was the natural progression of things but I've now created a filtered sheet for unders. Only exclusions so far is Mexico.
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I know there's a few people reading this thread but is anyone making money at all so far?
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Well that worked out and ends the day nicely. I firmly believe I'm making progress although sometimes it's a little like walking in treacle. Overs really starting to thrive now and if I can just get the same from unders consistently I'll be on my way.
Stupidly told the missus I would make 2k by my birthday in July or have to eat my hat. She keeps reminding me at present that it's not far off. Maybe I should go for double or quits haha!!
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So following the above post I've removed any unders totalling more than 150 on criterias 5-8 which was only 2 games. I've also removed anything under above 65 on criteria 5.
The other one I'll keep an eye on for now. Bolivar was looking good until just before HT now I'd say it's highly unlikely to stay under although you never know for sure.
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Another clean sweep on the overs (even inc. unfiltered) but unders as said before needs more work. I've got to find a way to trim the fat as well as making sure those being trimmed away represent a higher risk than the ones I choose to keep.
Thankfully on many losses when you look back at them you can see an unusual statistic which could certainly lend itself to the possibility of a higher scoring game than the others.
Honka yesterday for example had both criteria 5 & 8 at 50 (an unusual statistic which has only been seen 4 times since I changed the data set fairly recently and which has a 50% s/r.
Suwalki today, criterias 5 through 8 total over 150 - Only the 2nd time since 21/05 and these 2 are at 50%.
Nashville criteria 5 (home scored over 65%(67%) and again 4 selections with a 50% s/r.
