Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

Stuart Capstick

@Alex-Rendell said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:

@Richard-Latimer you don't see a graph like that very often!! I guess that makes the recent short-term blip harder to swallow, as it's been performing so consistently over a relatively decent period?

This may or may not be relevant but it's worth mentioning that goal numbers/averages are well down so far this month in a significant number of major leagues - not sure if this at all relates to your recent results but it may help to partly explain what's gone on lately!

Prior to this month, averages had been higher than average.

Regression to the mean.

Richard Latimer

I'm not about to do this now either (burnt trying this too early in the past) but it looks to me as if a very good system of backing the home underdog (mostly the underdog anyway) could be found in using all the fixtures I exclude from raw data on my filter.

Currently 58% s/r with average odds around 3.5 I reckon. Certainly well over 3.0 (I only have the published lay prices as well as those I was able to obtain myself).

Richard Latimer

@Alex-Rendell It probably does because the away team are knocking on the door and just not scoring.

So they're either getting hit against the run of play or the match is grinding to a boring 1-0.

Also explains why my over 1.5 system is suffering a simillar blip although that's not ready to go yet anyway.

Alex Rendell

@Richard-Latimer you don't see a graph like that very often!! I guess that makes the recent short-term blip harder to swallow, as it's been performing so consistently over a relatively decent period?

This may or may not be relevant but it's worth mentioning that goal numbers/averages are well down so far this month in a significant number of major leagues - not sure if this at all relates to your recent results but it may help to partly explain what's gone on lately!

Matt Wood

@Richard-Latimer That is a very nice looking graph! I think Stuart mentioned it a while back, looks like you might really be on to something here, softly softly until you see where the data takes you.

Richard Latimer

S/r's at different odds ranges for refined data (excluding negative leagues) are thus:

up to 3.5 83%
3.55-7.4 94%
7.6-11 - No loss as yet from 41 selections

As soon as things start up again I will be back in the saddle. I will probably be careful with those leagues that could easily flip into negative territory.

Richard Latimer

And speaking of excluded leagues - currently that number is 19. Conversely there are 55 leagues showing profit of 1pt or over. Another 3 showing profit under 1pt.

Within the profitable leagues there will be those that fall away due to liquidity and volume and where profitt is minimal some will probably go down as opposed to up. There also may be a few that come back in from the excluded 19 list.

Richard Latimer

Thought I'd use the time I have to look at a few positives and there are many:

Fair's fair, this is without excluded leagues but other than that this is the system graph. November is the first real drop.

Richard Latimer

@Stuart-Capstick ok maybe I should give serious consideration as to whether I want to bet in Colombia despite current overall results.....

https://colombiaone.com/2024/02/19/allegations-corruption-match-fixing-colombia-football-soccer/

Richard Latimer

@Stuart-Capstick thanks, that's good to hear. It could just be sods law that Nov is the first truly awful month where it makes no sense.

In fairness it's just over 12% which is nothing.

I've got a few irons in the fire now but overall keeping it nice and simple.

Stuart Capstick

@Richard-Latimer

Good.

I think you are on to something with this one. It may be more slowburning than you would like, but it will be profitable long term IF you manage it properly.

Richard Latimer

@Stuart-Capstick in general the only real changes that happen now are leagues being scrapped because of lack of volume/liquidity. Or sometimes they are moved to just tracking like the UK leagues.

I have a while to decide on my next move given the break.

Stuart Capstick

@Richard-Latimer

Either:

Paper trade for the rest of the month. If your system is viable, then what does a few missed weeks matter?

Or

Carry on with half stakes

Don't start tinkering. You will never know if it is a good system if you keep changing parameters every 25 pieces of data.

Richard Latimer

At least vindicated leaving the Uruguayan tonight.

Richard Latimer

Let's show this month in all it's glory. It really has been atrocious!!

Some if it could have been avoided but on the whole I have to hope this is an anomaly.

Richard Latimer

After a great start today it's another small loss. Just can't stem the blood flow in Nov

Richard Latimer

I've done a lot of looking at these ahead of time due to the current blip. Firstly here they are in full along with all the relevant numbers I don't usually post:

Thats total games, h2h meets, home points scored, home away points scored, home percentage d/l, away percentage d/w, home wins, home draws, home loss, away wins, away draws, away loss, home winless, home current winninh streak, away undefeated streak, away losing streak.

So you can now see for yourself what is what.

Here's the way I see it today and what I will more than likely do.

Nice I will lay. The stats look good and France has been good on the whole.
Kilmarnock I will lay if I can get it 11.0 or under which is unknown. Scotland has been good and only 2 have lost 7.6 or over in many many games. Bahrain which will probably be scrapped as mickey mouse league next time there's a selection....and the EPL which I'm staying away from on this now.
Mallorca I will lay. Stats look good and happy enough with Laliga.

Dordrecht......could fall under odds range. Even if it doesn't this league has now given me 2 unlikely losses on the spin to negate the first 4 wins and drag it into the red.
It may well be a temporary thing but with everything riding on this one I'll probably let this one play out with no skin in the game regardless.

Rennes I will lay. See Nice.
Lech Poznan. Don't have much in Poland yet but the odds are lowish, the stats ok based on odds and it more than likely gets laid.
Patrotas I will lay. Colombia proving to be a very good league on this. Volume and liquidity good, s/r good, odds quite good.

Defensor......may well depend on the rest of the day and definitely on the odds again as close to threshold.

On the surface it just about qualifies.

But both home points and away points are very low. When you combine the 2 you get 3 previous selections, 1 of which was a loss. A just under break even situation. I don't like it.

Richard Latimer

So like I said, there's no question there's a large amount of variance this month. BUT.... certain things are coming back to bite me after I raised concerns a while ago.

Great to see Man City lose but that along with the other English non league games that I left today just confirms to me. England is to be left well alone at present. Greece was just another f*****g tragedy. Still seems a decent league and first loss. Just so happens the first losses in several leagues are happening this month.

Richard Latimer

Dealing with much variance at the moment. Yet another red card and a 100th minute loser.

Last game to keep loss small and hope for something tomorrow which can send me to break even for Nov.

Richard Latimer

I laid in Slovakia but really shouldn't have. Volume was poor and not enough history to make it worthwhile.

This game has seemed odd from the off with odds dropping like a stone until home team finally took the lead.

I didn't expect Zilina to equalise but they have and I greened up.

Deleting this league based mainly on volume.