Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Potential to be a busy end to the month!
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Updated set of fixtures (home lays) for the next few hours/overnight. Doesn't often happen but 2 selections turns into 4:
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More to add. Hoping to build towards a respectable position for Aug and a decent base from which to build/take off:
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Update - Two home lays to look at now:
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All Uruguayan games were postponed this weekend until 28th by the way
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Nothing until Wednesday now:
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Recovered from the initial set back to make a small profit. Also very close to having made up for the Korean debacle in week 2 of this month. Profit still needs to improve massively but it's never going to be too easy to do that while selections remain so thin on the ground.
Think Sept could be the launchpad there.
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Annoying overnight loss but Paraguay is still good. Nothing changes and hope to get some kind of a run going.
South Korea has been the difference this month and one I didn't post for today in Korea League 2 on course for another loss. Although still 10 minutes for that to change (Bucheon).
Kalmar odds way higher but I am more confident in the higher odds as they they very rarely lose. We'll see.
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6 home lays across Sat/Sun - Majority of Winter Leagues still to kick in:
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1-3, that's more like it.
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Adding to the last post - Both home lays:
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Nothing until this now - Home lay:
All the other things I continue to work on are still going great guns but less ready than this one.
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Disappointing month so far but still waiting on Winter leagues which are mostly about to start kicking in.
Still not really changed anything in overall criteria for a while. Been debating a couple of things internally but nothing more at present.
There really aren't many leagues I've found issue with. Some are Central/South American and it's long been discussed how this can be a bit like headless chickens running around after the ball with no particular plan. I first looked at these when the overall p/l for Central/South America along with s/r was a losing proposition.
Rather than remove all leagues, when many were doing very well, it seemed a beter idea to simply exclude the problem leagues initially. This decision has so far proved to be the right one.
Summer leagues have been a problem with the much lower odds also leading to a large decrease in strike rate/p/l ratio.
Scandinavian leagues with much lower odds have been a concern and so have been put to track only.
Up until recently Korea hadn't been something that was jumping out. K League 2 started with 4 straight wins. Clearly this didn't make it the best league out there. The last 3 results in that league have now been negative. 7 fixtures, 4 wins and a large enough deficit that even 4 straight wins still doesn't take it into the green.
K League 1 had until yesterday 2 results, 1 loss. Big deal. Now 3 results 2 losses and a reminder of how batshit crazy the win was.
So now 10 fixtures across South Korea and no more than a 50/50 proposition. I would say that is something to be wary of.
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@Alex-Rendell They absolutely don't but I just saved myself a chunk of money today and being over cautious is better than the other way. Done that plenty in the past.
What 4 results with odds of around 2/1 does do is make it almost impossible a league can finish in the green for the entire season. A losing season to me is certainly worthy of checking to see whether it's an anomaly or a symptom something bigger.
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@Richard-Latimer it's your system and I'm not personally following it but 4 results don't indicate anything. If they'd all won, it doesn't make it the best league in the world for trading either? Just trying to give an objective viewpoint - like I said, I think you should have a minimum amount of games traded in each league before you start using real money on those leagues, but that's just my humble opinion. Cheers
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@Alex-Rendell tell me I wasn't right to be cautious with the South Korean fixtures. That's now 4 losses on the bounce unless there's a comeback here.
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@Alex-Rendell of course I'm not chucking it in the bin. I'm still collecting data and things may well even out. It's easy enough to start trading the fixtures again.
I'm just being cautious.
There definitely are some leagues where caution is necessary. If I witness a dramatic shift in the data I won't hesitate to correct course.
As it is yesterday was another loss but still very slightly in profit from begin August.
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@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
"I'm through with South Korea until at least next season. Need to see how the remaining fixtures pan out but so far from 3 fixtures they have all been lowish odds and 2 of them have s**t the bed"3 fixtures and you're chucking it in the bin? If you want to be serious about this then you need a bit of perspective; we've got to be working with representative sample sizes here, no? Or do you have more data in the background that backs up your thinking? As a suggestion, maybe you shouldn't trade any league that hasn't had a minimum amount of selections, then you'll have a far better idea of whether or not that league works. Not being critical but it seems that these Korean teams aren't the only ones "sh*tting the bed"...!
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I'm through with South Korea until at least next season. Need to see how the remaining fixtures pan out but so far from 3 fixtures they have all been lowish odds and 2 of them have s**t the bed.
Memory also serves me that even the winner was a clusterfuck of what could have beens. 1-0 down and down to 10 men, somehow the match was evened up to 10 a piece and shortly after an equaliser went in.
The 2nd half saw another 4 goals in a match that could have gone either way. Not prepared to risk on K League 2 either at present as last couple of weeks have been awful in these 2 leagues.
