Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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I won't go into too much at the moment but I had an idea regarding the outliers.
a)I'm not really keen on turning this whole thing on it's head and aiming for a random entry point 2nd half for everything
b)The outliers are qualifying, they are just on the edge where the data hasn't reached enough yet. This is only something because I'm tracking both top and bottom range on all criteria.So....
My plan is to keep the non outliers the same. I will enter at HT as normal if the match scoreline fits required criteria.
For outliers only I will take a more cautious view and place my lay price at half the available HT odds leaving unmatched. This will normally match anywhere between 55-65 mins but usually closer to the 60 minute mark.
If they almost qualify then they didn't qualify and I move on. That one is very simple. No change.
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While I'm not wishing to make out a loss of £38.00 is good it must be put into perspective. When I first started this I lost £30 in one day from a MUCH lower bank. Percentage wise this is better. It's an improvement haha!
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Finally managed to update Sunday which is fine as keeps me busy:
First thing I'll do is get through the ones no longer included on my list of qualifiers. Starting with St. Gallen, I could perhaps have avoided this one as while not an outlier the stats I had were borderline on averages as low as 0.7 Home SHG on 0-1. They are for most, either that or they don't qualify. The exception so far appears to be 2-0.
Then later in the day a 1-1 dud in German Regionalliga West. The league is on pause. It had started well, I had 10 straight wins there but it's now on the tracking list until I'm happy. I can find no other reason than league to boycott this one.
Feyenoord not scoring a 5th or conceding a first was unexpected and all my stats point to this being bang in the middle. Right in the sweet spot.
Bodo was interrupted for a blizzard which concerned me but looking at the highlights as I did today on sofascore, the weather when they resumed was perfectly ok and there many big chances missed.
Of the winners I didn't take Deinz in Belgian 2 based purely on wanting to see more from that league.
Teutonia and Oldenburg the same in Germany
Bulgaria a league thing again as need more data.
Sturm Graz, waiting on more data for an initially ailing Austria
Oostende a slight outlierI must admit to cheating a little at the end and hitting Genoa even though this could be considered a small outlier.
But this brings me to my next thing. If the system is prone to hiccups while I iron out some issues these will be less apparent at lower odds if I can still maintain a high s/r as I believe I could.
So I'm thinking to include the outliers while qualify BUT to look at overall goal times and try to optimise my entry point.
This wouldn't be done with software so it would be a case of me reducing HT odds by a percentage where I believe the price will be at a certain point in the game. Not foolproof by any means but sometimes it would result in entering earlier and sometimes a little later. Hopefully this would even out over time.
Anyway this is the thing to work on next.
Before I go, loss for Sunday was -£38.69
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I've used this horrible time to reach out to another of my best mates on fb who I hadn't seen for years and glad I did. It's true that life really is too short and you NEVER know what's round the corner.
This guy kissed his girlfriend good night and went to sleep. He woke up in the middle of the night gasping for air and pretty much died there and then. They tried to revive him for an hour and pronounced him dead shortly after arriving at the hospital.
He was fit and healthy when I saw him a couple of months back.
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@keith-anderson said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge - Total Deposits £194.42 - Current Bank £204.21 (+£42.94 for Oct):
@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge - Total Deposits £194.42 - Current Bank £204.21 (+£42.94 for Oct):
My updating has taken a hit as I just found out my best mate from school who I'd only just reconnected with is somehow dead. Life f*****g sucks!!
My condolences, @Richard-Latimer
May his memory forever be a blessing. Baruch dayan ha'emet
Thanks Keith
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@james-everard said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge - Total Deposits £194.42 - Current Bank £204.21 (+£42.94 for Oct):
@richard-latimer Sorry to hear your news. Thoughts are with you
Cheers James
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@richard-latimer Sorry to hear your news. Thoughts are with you
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@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge - Total Deposits £194.42 - Current Bank £204.21 (+£42.94 for Oct):
My updating has taken a hit as I just found out my best mate from school who I'd only just reconnected with is somehow dead. Life f*****g sucks!!
My condolences, @Richard-Latimer
May his memory forever be a blessing. Baruch dayan ha'emet
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
I'd literally only seen him about twice in 25yrs but it still hits like a tonne of bricks.
Funny thing is right before I went to meet him for drinks earlier this year I felt a bit rough and toyed with the idea of calling it off. Even gave him the choice to call it off in case I had covid.
Just goes to show you never know when it will be the last time. Thank god we did meet!
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@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge - Total Deposits £194.42 - Current Bank £204.21 (+£42.94 for Oct):
My updating has taken a hit as I just found out my best mate from school who I'd only just reconnected with is somehow dead. Life f*****g sucks!!
Jesus, Richard, I'm so sorry.
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@chris-osborne In fairness I can't, life must go on. For now though I'm just supping an unexpected beer and feeling shell shocked.
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@richard-latimer OMG not sure how to respond to that, take as long as you need before getting back to it, this is far more important than trading
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Nothing for tomorrow or Thu which is just as well as I can't concentrate anymore.
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My updating has taken a hit as I just found out my best mate from school who I'd only just reconnected with is somehow dead. Life f*****g sucks!!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge - Total Deposits £194.42 - Current Bank £204.21 (+£42.94 for Oct):
One for tonight. LCS Chesterfield 2-0 HT @ 5.0
This isn't an outlier at all and I'm happy with the league/odds so easy decision. Will carry on updating Sunday tonight.
Mini recovery underway. 2-1.
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One for tonight. LCS Chesterfield 2-0 HT @ 5.0
This isn't an outlier at all and I'm happy with the league/odds so easy decision. Will carry on updating Sunday tonight.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
I'm up to 13:15 on the update. Just about to reach the bit where things went south haha!
Will defintely get it finished tomorrow.
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Ok full update for Saturday:
As previously stated I went 7/9 (-£6.34) with 2 losses as shown above although at one of these was Leverkusen v Bochum. At the time I didn't consider a Mlada a qualifier but after a bit of error correcting on my sheet it definitely was. Not only was it a loss it was an unexplainable one if I am to consider this league a good one which I still do.
As I was deleting the notification of this game I got a score update of 1-1 but I guess it was corrected and no mention of any disallowed goals anywhere.
Leverkusen v Bochum I noticed after the fact that HT scorelines of 1-0 where only the away team were in a different league (promoted) had brought about 2 losses from only a handful of games and removing it at this time seems prudent. With that in mind I swapped one loss for another with minimal difference I would imagine.
Union Berlin had odds of 4.2, the league is good and the stats are good. Would play again without hesitation.
Fact is no matter what, Saturday held a couple of losses for me this weekend and they look pretty unavoidable.
There were 16 winning trades for the system and of the ones I didn't get most were what I would consider to be small outliers hence the look to find a better balance:
Hamburger - Won - Small outlier on one or more criteria
Hallescher - Won - Small outlier
Ranheim - Won - Small outlier (Norway Obos - most profitable league)
Aalesunds - Won - Small outlier (Obos again)
Malmo - Not completely happy with Alsvenskan yet but won so a step in the right direction
Stuttgart II - Won - Small outlier
Paris St G - Won - Was an outlier but would now consider to be in the mix
Viking - ALMOST qualified on the basis one of the criteria was out slightly but not to a number which has seen losses. Would now be considered an outlier as it won.
Ujpest - Won - Small outlierSaturday could have been much better regardless of the 2 losses which is a shame. However if the same issues would have carried into Sunday then this would have just resulted in a bigger loss that day.
I've not even started updating Sunday yet but it's going to take some time. The recovery bounce can't begin yet either as seems like there is bugger all on midweek that qualifies as a potential. Unfortunately with the interlull there were only really 3 weeks to make this month pay and so now there's one left to make it a green month.
STUPID INTERLULL!!
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@darri I will be posting it all I assure you.
I do love your dentist analogy though. Almost spat my food out at the thought of letting a dentist learn his trade on the fly haha!!
