Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[John Folan]

@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer i think the discussion on my blog today might help you bud, i think your over reliant on the data in a long term performance. Essentially, if you just had a set bank for a year this would work, your big data says so, but because you keep compounding you keep resetting the bank and therefore you will have hits. Last month for example brought you way back, because of your staking and compounding. This month you have had a good run, but because you keep compounding so quickly your just one bad weekend away from going all the way back. Like iv been saying from literally the first time i questioned how you trade, its not the strategy, i fully think you have something, it will take time, cutting leagues etc, but the way your managing it is super risky and your chasing this way too much. Saw you tell john you only have 7 months to get a big bank, yet your current bank is only £180 ish, can you actually see this risk?

Only replying to this because its based on my blog discussion. Not wanting to re open a discussion about your trading long term, just thought my post might help as clearly you do fit into the things im talking about.

Have to say not the worst idea to compound once a month. Or maybe stake less if you want aggressive compounding. (200 point bank maybe so halve your stakes). Either can be managed well. I remember after I blew my second bank I didn’t place another bean down until I had paper traded for six months. Then I only increased stakes everytime my bank doubled. I’m more aggressive these days but that’s because I know I can offset any losses through scalping and inrunning trading.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer i think the discussion on my blog today might help you bud, i think your over reliant on the data in a long term performance. Essentially, if you just had a set bank for a year this would work, your big data says so, but because you keep compounding you keep resetting the bank and therefore you will have hits. Last month for example brought you way back, because of your staking and compounding. This month you have had a good run, but because you keep compounding so quickly your just one bad weekend away from going all the way back. Like iv been saying from literally the first time i questioned how you trade, its not the strategy, i fully think you have something, it will take time, cutting leagues etc, but the way your managing it is super risky and your chasing this way too much. Saw you tell john you only have 7 months to get a big bank, yet your current bank is only £180 ish, can you actually see this risk?

Only replying to this because its based on my blog discussion. Not wanting to re open a discussion about your trading long term, just thought my post might help as clearly you do fit into the things im talking about.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Just these 3 of interest tonight:

Crusaders not a trade so 2/2 in Norway and +£3.17

Bank £169.60

For anyone worried about me compounding day on day, I get this has more risk of fluctuation but that's what the ratchet is there for and it's already been employed to good effect.

The growth will be quicker and of course any falls more heavily felt.

I'm not hovering around the precipice in terms of edge though. Between 94-95% s/r on the data (rapidly approaching 1,000 trades) which is getting closer and closer to actual reality. 85-86% would see me break even as my average odds no more than 6.4 (prob lower) so that's quite a chunk of grace shall we say.

I've experienced the bad runs on this already and I made the money back that was lost and now back in the green by around £15.00.

[Richard Latimer]

Just these 3 of interest tonight:

[Richard Latimer]

Finally, Saturday is done:

Was a few other decent results in leagues where I need data but no point in posting those.

[Richard Latimer]

Still updating the weekend and I'm going to start accepting the fact it takes 2 or 3 days ti update the weekend. Nothing I can do about it. I should be able to post Saturdays later tonight and then Sundays tomorrow or Tuesday.

As for a quick overview though, that's easy. Today not as good as yesterday with a couple of losses in Switzerland and Denmark. Nevertheless it's a good +£7.09 and the bank increeases to £166.43.

Tomorrows stakes:

[Richard Latimer]

It's going to take a long time to get anything on this but I'm going to start keeping a list of the teams that fail most frequently as well as the leagues. It may be that after a few years you could look at it and say, well there's nothing wrong with the league at all once you take these losers out haha!!

[Richard Latimer]

A 97th minute goal in Orlando very welcome. Here's the rest:

[Richard Latimer]

Revised staking in line with percentage increase of bank:

[Richard Latimer]

Only about halfway through updating and I'll carry on that tomorrow. In the meantime here's some overnighters for the States. Now I'm off to watch a film before bed.

[Richard Latimer]

@john-folan I know what you're saying but I have around 6 and a half to 7 and a half months to build as big a bank as possible. These are not ordinary times unfortunately. That's not to say I know every month will be great but if I base it on the huge amount of data I am beginning to amass there certainly shouldn't be many losing months.

[John Folan]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@martin said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer brilliant, is this total all from the original amount have you added?

No, I've been adding £5.00 a week. In fact the system is still only around £5.00 in credit. Important thing for me is I know that if I can do it once I can do it again. I'm slowly cutting out all the silly mistakes, poor leagues and the outliers which have been hurting me. The FHG is on pause as I said because until I have decent data from each league I don't trust it to make money.

For Aug I was £30.00 up after a nightmare start.
For Sept I had another nightmare start and this time couldn't get it back. Ended up -£45.00
For this month I'm already £20.00 up so I know how quickly things can change.

We cannot look at this on a monthly basis. Got to be quarterly at least. It’s tough but that’s the breaks

[Richard Latimer]

@john-folan said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Well done Richard. Your perseverance is paying off. There are definite improvements to what you are doing. Stick to your guns mate

Thanks, I know I can do it, I know the data is good, just a question of cutting out the things that are hurting me right now and slowly I'm doing it.

[Richard Latimer]

@martin said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer brilliant, is this total all from the original amount have you added?

No, I've been adding £5.00 a week. In fact the system is still only around £5.00 in credit. Important thing for me is I know that if I can do it once I can do it again. I'm slowly cutting out all the silly mistakes, poor leagues and the outliers which have been hurting me. The FHG is on pause as I said because until I have decent data from each league I don't trust it to make money.

For Aug I was £30.00 up after a nightmare start.
For Sept I had another nightmare start and this time couldn't get it back. Ended up -£45.00
For this month I'm already £20.00 up so I know how quickly things can change.

[John Folan]

Well done Richard. Your perseverance is paying off. There are definite improvements to what you are doing. Stick to your guns mate

[Martin]

@richard-latimer brilliant, is this total all from the original amount have you added?

[Richard Latimer]

Finally a perfect 13/13 and +£19.89 today.

I'll post the full update later.

Bank now £159.34.

[Richard Latimer]

Hamburger II would normally be a play but I've noticed that home odds lower than 1.6 not performing at all well and playing it safe.

[Richard Latimer]

Todays list after cutting away all of the untested or poorly performing leagues:

[Richard Latimer]

Of course there was also the loss in Ger not in the above table as it wouldn't be repeated going forward.

7/8 and the tiniest of profit. An improvement on the last 2 months opening day/night anyway!

The profit wasn't enough to move the bar on stakes other than a single penny increase on highest odds. These are now £1.16.