Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

Late goal from Napoli means day comes to a close at -£8.00 ish

Annoying after yesterday but the weekend was profitable across 3 days and there are still 2 days left.

Month is also small green at present.

[Richard Latimer]

Easier update for yesterday as not so much:

Regionalliga Bayern is just collecting data
Eupen was an outlier where goal came too quickly
Same with Always Ready

Already discussed Lieefering which was a nice win but after consideration I wouldn't make again at present.

Today is almost certainly a small loss, just a question of how much. Right now it's the equivalent to perhaps 3-4 wins so not so bad. 3 more potentials left although prob leave France after Montpellier drew a blank earlier.

[Richard Latimer]

Busier day today:

I don't know why so I'm not doing anything about it now but home odds of 1.55-1.66 haven't done very well on the 2-0 scoreline. Just putting it out there and if the situation arises today I may well skip.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge - Total Deposits £194.42 - Current Bank £204.21 (+£42.94 for Oct):

One more potential in Bolivia but it's almost a Sunday game. 3/3 so far on what has been a quiet day. Updating now.

Bolivian game makes it 4/4 but I have since decided the Liefering game is in a data range I'm not quite comfortable with at the moment so it's still 3/3 really. Also a couple of others qualifying as outliers but goals came too quickly. Will finish update in the morning.

Bank back at £223.18
+£12.54

[Richard Latimer]

One more potential in Bolivia but it's almost a Sunday game. 3/3 so far on what has been a quiet day. Updating now.

[Richard Latimer]

This is it for today:

[Richard Latimer]

Liefering qualifies as a slight outlier. Leaving unmatched lay @ 4.2

[Richard Latimer]

@martin said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge - Total Deposits £194.42 - Current Bank £204.21 (+£42.94 for Oct):

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge - Total Deposits £194.42 - Current Bank £204.21 (+£42.94 for Oct):

For anyone who wants to know why my updates take so long by the way, it's because I am collecting and storing so much data on each game and not just the games that qualify or the leagues I am currently trading.

nice work, are you spotting some good trends on this? I'm doing something similar with the ratings at the moment.

I can spot the potential pitfalls for no goals and hence a reverse to the system could be possible if I wanted to go that way in time. Plus I'm still tracking FHG.

But the beauty is if I ever do want to scan through the data for something else I can.

[Martin]

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge - Total Deposits £194.42 - Current Bank £204.21 (+£42.94 for Oct):

For anyone who wants to know why my updates take so long by the way, it's because I am collecting and storing so much data on each game and not just the games that qualify or the leagues I am currently trading.

nice work, are you spotting some good trends on this? I'm doing something similar with the ratings at the moment.

[Richard Latimer]

Will post up Sat in the morning. Nothing until 10:30 anyway.

[Richard Latimer]

Helsingor from a league I have nowhere near enough data on yet.
Volendam the outlier I missed when trying for lower price as already mentioned.

[Richard Latimer]

For anyone who wants to know why my updates take so long by the way, it's because I am collecting and storing so much data on each game and not just the games that qualify or the leagues I am currently trading.

[Martin]

@richard-latimer nice work!

[Richard Latimer]

I was planning to post my trades tonight to show what I meant about going for the outliers at a lower price. In any case the only one missed by minutes as mentioned to Martin above. +£7.38 tonight and bank back up to £210.64

[Richard Latimer]

@martin said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge - Total Deposits £194.42 - Current Bank £204.21 (+£42.94 for Oct):

@richard-latimer are these the lower German ones? I tend to leave them alone, only really interested in top two divs unless it's in England

Yeah they are but for the most part they go inplay, liquidity is ok starting out (maybe not for your level) and the stats are quite consistent.

Nothing in it tonight anyway but a decent night nonetheless. 3/3, 4/4 with outliers although goal came before I was matched.

[Martin]

@richard-latimer are these the lower German ones? I tend to leave them alone, only really interested in top two divs unless it's in England

[Richard Latimer]

The game in Regional Liga West is a mistake. That league on hold for now.

[Richard Latimer]

One more thing on the outliers. As much as you are talking about one or 2 criteria with perhaps less than 10 selections reaching the exact when you put alll scorelines together and all criterias the outliers are acutally accounting for a hell of alot of selections.

To continue to ignore them all is not sensible.

[Richard Latimer]

I won't go into too much at the moment but I had an idea regarding the outliers.

a)I'm not really keen on turning this whole thing on it's head and aiming for a random entry point 2nd half for everything
b)The outliers are qualifying, they are just on the edge where the data hasn't reached enough yet. This is only something because I'm tracking both top and bottom range on all criteria.

So....

My plan is to keep the non outliers the same. I will enter at HT as normal if the match scoreline fits required criteria.

For outliers only I will take a more cautious view and place my lay price at half the available HT odds leaving unmatched. This will normally match anywhere between 55-65 mins but usually closer to the 60 minute mark.

If they almost qualify then they didn't qualify and I move on. That one is very simple. No change.

[Richard Latimer]

While I'm not wishing to make out a loss of £38.00 is good it must be put into perspective. When I first started this I lost £30 in one day from a MUCH lower bank. Percentage wise this is better. It's an improvement haha!