If I wanna go pro a blog might help me focus
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Taking a leaf out of @Chris-Osborne book and starting September today. There’s a couple of reasons one being the US Open the other being that my boy goes back to school next week so routine is very much in vogue. Will finally get around to spreadsheets instead of notepads. Nothing really to report this post is more for me will update quite often I think this month.
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Had a classic example yesterday of where I want my trading to be and the mindset I’ve been working on.
I was looking to back Elena Svitolina yesterday in her match against Angie Kerber at odds of around 2.20. Or to back her if she dropped the first set. Kerber served for the opening set at 5-4 with Svitolina’s odds at 2.50. The perfect time to enter the market as opposing girls serving for or receiving to stay in the set is a well known and profitable strategy in tennis. Svitolina got the break I was looking for and her odds dropped to 1.56. Knowing that given the quality of her opponent that 1.56 wouldn’t have shortened much if Svitolina had won the set. As we know the iodds in tennis matches fluctuate wildly and I was offered 2.1 points then at 5-5 to green up. I took it. Svitolina lost the set 7-5 but won the 2nd set 6-2. I didn’t get involved in the 2nd set using the green I’d already accumulated because my son wanted to do stuff. 2 points was enough. -
@darri still very much in the passive income stage mate. I doubt I’ll ever make as much a month trading as I do with my full time job. The end goal has always been to make enough to change my lifestyle when I eventually get bored of living out of a suitcase.
I stopped chasing trades a while ago it’s been something I’ve become quite comfortable with. If I make a good trade and it goes against me then that’s sport. Trading is still really value betting whichever way you want to paint it. I used to be a notorious chaser it comes with having a slightly addictive personality. It’s something I’ve worked incredibly hard on to eradicate from my trading and discussions with you have helped. I wouldn’t have upped my bank if I didn’t feel confident to do it and if I was still going around in circles it would be a stupid move.
I’ll treat my bank the same as a £100 bank I won’t be getting blinded by profit.
I’m no “pro” I know that for a fact but I also believe my mindset continues to improve by the day.
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remember slow and steady, dont think of this as a main income only a passive one. Remember its still a bet/trade and how well we manage ourselves is how well we do long term. After a loss do we chase, hunt for something else. I remember when this was my sole income id take a chunk out the bank and then have a few losses and go right now im gonna have to find some good trades off script.
What the best mindset iv found for how i got to full time was dont do anything you wouldnt do with that full time bank. The way you trade with a £100 bank should be the same way you trade a £10k bank. The process is the same. Its easy to find a good system its blimmin difficult to keep at it without mistakes or urges. The quicker you snap and go right i cant withdraw, i cant overstake, only trade on my plan the quicker your bank will grow. People think you need a golden strat that pushes out trades every single day to build a bank. Its not because if you are finding quality trades and trading with a good mindset you will grow much much faster. I still think you are doing too much and you have even said that yourself. Yes we can be fairly decent at a few sports but really the better you are at one (master one strat) the better your trading gains will be.
You have loads of mindset stuff to work on. Even the "pros" are still working on mindset, its a non stop management. Remember the small portion of people that profit at this, its tiny for pretty much the same reason, MINDSET. You have similar traits i had. After a run of wins id be overconfident, losses id be upping stakes to get it back a bit. Remember dont worry about the forum, there isnt anything you need to prove to people. You dont need to compete with others for who has the better trade. Just focus on your trade and make sure you are in that trade for the correct reason.
Keep going mate and stop thinking about this full time goal right now. Its still a long way away. Your going to want to build past the end goal target bank and create a buffer as you have a family. Just keep this as a passive income and once its beating your salary for id say 6 months then go for it. Make sure you are not chasing a goal, we all do in the beginning its not a criticism and instead are building up for it. Good trading and solid bank management. You have so many similarities to me in my journey its why we get on in the chats bud. I hope you can see what im saying. Slow and steady is actually quicker than being an active trader/full time. Full time can only become a thing not from a bank but how well you will use that bank both in trades and mindset.
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@james-woodroffe good luck, I’ve only just caught up with these posts and they made fascinating reading. Looking forward to emulating your success with cricket
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Good luck James it’s a position I want to get too as well and probably most of us.
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@james-woodroffe I found the cricket stuff especially useful as that my first choice sport and where I am going to focus my attention energy and time
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2 months ago I posted that I was going to double my bank from my original starting bank from when I first started trading and had no idea what I was doing. Confession time.
That never eventuated. I’d been chasing my tail financially still following the loss of work in 2020 and I couldn’t justify it, in fact I had to keep withdrawing in order to make ends meet and was trading with a very small bank but it was helping with my discipline and making smarter trading decisions knowing that sooner rather than later I would finally be able to have my trading bank that would be my trading bank and I wouldn’t have to dip into it because eventually post Tokyo I’d finally have caught up with 2020 and would be able to do everything correctly.
That day has finally come. I’ve finally caught up I can breathe exhale again and reboot.
I have set myself up with a bank I will no longer have to dip into because “something has come up”.
This is a great thing but it’s also great for my trading because I’m in a good head space to continue to go forward in the knowledge that I can have the bank I want to start with and I no longer have to worry about it.
Anyway here we go. I know my strengths and weaknesses as a trader and I’ve made profit recently with a tiny bank. No more depositing into it only to have to withdraw most of it 3 days later and learn and improve with a tiny amount.
I think in hindsight it was probably the best thing to happen to me despite how infuriating it’s been but today marks a very important day in my trading and my intent to become full time. -
@clare-taylor thanks Clare, hope you get something out of both. I’ll be looking to update the blog either tonight or tomorrow morning.
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Just listened to the podcast and really enjoyed it so come to check out your blog. Was a really interesting listen
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One of the things I was thinking about on the plane was how I was going to tackle my football trading going forward with the new winter season approaching. I’ve pretty much tried most strategies since joining BTC and I was able to draw some conclusions which will help going forward.
For some reason I stepped away from what has served me the best since I joined and that has been late goal trading around 65-70 mins with an average entry price on the next goal of about 1.70.
I’d had some great private chats with Darri about this over the journey and had started to reap the rewards. Maybe I got a little ahead of myself or thought I wanted a more set and forget style of trading but it’s since dawned on me that I’m not really cut out for set and forget wether it be O1.5 or 2HG at odds of 4’s it doesn’t work for me and kind of messes with my head. I have no issue laying the draw in a test match at 4’s because of the way test cricket is played but doing it in a football match just doesn’t sit right. I know it’s a mentality thing but trading has to work for you and your own strengths and weaknesses. I can happily lay the draw in a football match at HT if 0-0 at 2.65 for example and then enter a O0.5 at 1.70 at 70 mins if still 0-0 that mindset works for me and has been always my best way forward. My point is for other traders the flavour of the month may very well work for your style of trading and if so that’s great but if it doesn’t sit well there’s nothing to be really gained by following the crowd if it makes you apprehensive. It’s a bit different to say following Keith’s posts or Ryan’s O1.5 strategy these are pro traders and god knows how much I’ve learnt from them. However the big BUT should be if they don’t sit with you then don’t pressure yourself. I’m going to happily plod along doing LTD’s when the price suits and late goals. Concentrating more on cricket and doing a bit more tennis and sticking to my strategies until I master them enough to then move on. This is a long term gig for me and I have the time to step back and go “Na this is what works for you just stick to that.” -
Home sweet home but yesterday was a day I’d rather forget.
Was itching to get back into some trading and had been thinking long and hard on the flight home about how I was going to ease back into it.
Made a trade on a J League 1 match that I’d do every single time and it finished 0-0 made a trade on a Sweden match that I would never make (Varbergs) and it finished 0-0.
Traded the run chase in the Bang v Oz T20 and that’s where I should have left the day. Backed Bangladesh and got just over a half point green in what was a woeful performance from Australia but a strange market reaction to the prices at the start of the run chase. It was like nobody had taken the first two matches into consideration. 124 was going to take some getting but all out 70 odd was just embarrassing. Was way too keen to trade a little tennis in the late afternoon and evening and pretty much went against every rule I have for trading tennis.
I then decided that I just wasn’t in the right space I was still a touch jet lagged and this wasn’t one of the smartest trading days I’d ever had and I needed another good nights sleep more than I needed to be trading.
So I dragged my sorry Red day arse off to bed told myself I was a moron and that was that.
Today is the start of a refreshed post Olympics brain and I’ll be taking things nice and easy as I
ease into the 2nd half of the year. -
@james-woodroffe Buzzing for it!!
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Arrived in Tokyo this afternoon and everything was pretty cruisey as far as getting sorted went. It was 4 hours from touchdown to arriving at the hotel and 3 of that was paperwork and more testing. I got to spit in a test tube today so that’s better than the old nostril scrape. Betfair works in Japan!! That I didn’t expect. A lot of rehearsals and sitting around until the diving launches next Monday. Glad I’m here now and had an attitude readjustment. Yeah it will be different but it’s still the Olympics.
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@james-woodroffe I cannot wait to watch the Olympics! I love it, I’ll be watching as much as I can, I also LOVE the Winter Olympics.
I liked your comments on the in play match as well.
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@chris-osborne I don’t really wanna go, I don’t think they should be going ahead if the decision is for them to be behind closed doors I think it’s farcical. I also understand the financial costs of them being canned so it’s a bit no win for pretty much everyone involved. I’m not overly concerned about staying safe I have my views and opinions re Covid and the global response to the whole thing they might be deemed controversial but I’m also done with empty stadiums, PCR testing, bubbles the whole thing. I love the Olympics have done since LA 84 just wish it was not what it is 5 days out from the Opening Ceremony.
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@james-woodroffe I'm a massive fan of the Olympics watch as much as I can.
This will be the first time since I started work 30 years ago that I haven't booked any time off which I'm annoyed about but it falls at a month end which is impossible for me and also I expected it to be cancelled.
I'm not sure I'm looking forward to it so much this year as think it will turn into a bit of a farce due to COVID.We've already seen a number of withdrawals this week especially in the tennis and I expect there to be lots more. Won't stop me watching though.
I also think it shouldn't be going ahead without fans and you'll get very different and unexpected results than you'd normally expect to see.
Enjoy and above all stay safe
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Tokyo!
Dunno if anyone will read this or care but I thought I’d put some thoughts out on here.
Firstly if you’d have told me 20 years ago I’d be packing my bags to go and work on my 5th Olympics it’s safe to say I wouldn’t believe you. It’s almost 20 years since I first went freelance and just over 20 years since I returned to Australia with my tail between my legs after my marriage went to s**t. I was 26 years old and it lasted 15 months.
In 2004 I went to Athens for my first Olympics. I remember arriving at the Olympic Media village and being told if I don’t screw up I’d be doing them every 4 years till I retire. I’m lucky that I got into a particular field that was embryonic and also that a master of TV production had won the contract to do the world feed for the Aquatics at the Olympics and had decided I was worthy to be a part of his production crew. Tokyo will be unlike any other Olympics obviously, there’s no crowd so it puts more pressure I guess on broadcasters to give the games a special feeling. That’s my goal for the next 3 weeks. Different countries get different sports to specialise in and the Australian- Kiwis get the Aquatics we have done since Sydney 2000 so the swimming, diving, water polo that’s our baby. Pictures only we have no responsibility over commentary that’s another thing entirely we just look after the pictures. I dunno if trading on the Olympics is a thing it would be cool to see if it’s something BTC involve themselves in. However for the next 3 weeks I just hope that what is essentially going to be strange with no crowds is still enjoyable. -
@matt-wood oh for sure you and me both mate and I think it’s why a lot of guys go round and round in circles because it’s an easy thing to do. I think once you can ignore those trades things improve. There was a BTC post on Twitter the other day which was effectively “What are you happy with points wise per trading day”. Or something very similar I might have got it wrong but the jist is there. I remember ages ago Frode posting on the forum that he had his point for the day and he was done. I think that shows great discipline cause 1 can easily be tempted to get to 2 to 3 but then you’re suddenly 1.5 points Red. I think that’s the next big thing for me to work on. If I have a good day on the cricket do I really give a toss about some Scandinavian football at 19:30? Or vice versa if I have a good result on a J1 match at 11am maybe I’ll just chill out and watch the cricket? It’s the next hurdle to get over is what is enough if you have 2 sports that you focus on.
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@james-woodroffe Excellent stuff mate
I had just been thinking similar types of things. Had 3 games this afternoon, price was shocking in two of them so left them alone, I am sure a year ago I would have got involved.
