If I wanna go pro a blog might help me focus
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Something I think might help some new traders and something that has taken me a while to get on top off as a result of FOMO.
It’s quite easy to get consumed on a weekend with trading what’s on your filter simply because “It’s on your filter”. This is something that much more experienced traders than me have spoken about before but is imperative to get control of early days as it will only help going forward. At the moment it seems not as prevalent but come November when major European leagues start hitting filters it becomes more difficult to control if you haven’t learnt already.
Today there were 2 great examples for me of trades that before I would have made but I’ve learnt what’s important when placing in play.
The Aalesund and the Start matches both made my late LCS filter however there were warning signs that made me dodge them.
Aalesund were trailing 0-1 at home and by 70 mins there was no value in entering a LCS absolutely zero value because the markets were adamant there would be another goal There was it finished 1-1 but Price and value are things that are drilled into you when you first start a trading journey but they are easy to avoid if you’re just super keen to get “involved” The Start match was almost the opposite Start led 1-0 the price on offer was very tempting but the home side and favourites already led the match and we’re controlling it. 1-0 would do just nicely for them and that’s how it ended.
If you can read these Key indicators when you’re starting it becomes easier to dodge bullets. It’s been mentioned here a million times that there’s no shortage of trading opportunities it’s just when you begin it’s easy to get overawed and a bit to keen to get involved. Hope this post helps anyone who’s new to BTC or even who’s not new but still struggles a little with FOMO
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@matt-wood it’s been ok and it’s got me confident after this little break to be able to focus more now that I’ve cut out some silly and bad habits and kick on. I haven’t been to Japan before but my brother spent 6 months there as an exchange student when he was 16 in Osaka and he loved it.
I was booked to work on the games back in 2018 or early 2019 and was super excited because I hadn’t been there. The plan originally was because it fell during school holidays the better half and junior were going to fly out after the Olympics and we were going to have 2 weeks just traveling around as it would have been a great experience for the boy. Obviously that’s not happening now but ideally I
would love to see it properly. -
@james-woodroffe Seem to be on a decent run of winners
You been to Japan before? Id love to go there one day, such a different culture from what we have here.
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A pretty decent days trading on what could be my last days trading for at least the next 3 to 4 weeks as I fly to Tokyo on Sunday and tomorrow will be all about packing, paperwork and chilling with the family in the garden and soaking up the sunshine.
I pretty much posted on the cricket forum what I did today so I won’t bang on about that too much.
A lay of Zim at 2.10 and greening up at 3.0 followed by a back at 6 and further greening up at 4.50 When they were chasing. The wheels came off the Zimbabwe innings pretty much as soon as I closed out but having an exit plan works well when opportunities present themselves especially when looking to capitalise on set partnerships.
The Pakistan v England game was great entertainment and as I mentioned on the forum I backed Pakistan at 1.80 with Babar and Rizwan smoking it and a massive score on the cards. I stayed in the market right thru till the moment that Livingstone fell and at that stage finally the market gave up on England. 236 was always going to be a huge ask and after losing 3 wickets inside the powerplay despite the incredible run rate England were always chasing tail.
The only thing that interested me on my football filters was the St Patrick’s game in Ireland. It appeared on my O1.5 filter but as I mentioned on Darri’s blog the data collection and what not had fallen into the too hard basket for the time being as I’m consumed by paperwork re the Olympics both Japanese government orientated and camera plans etc from a production standpoint.
I saw St Pats being one of Keith’s for the day so I laid U1.5 for 1 point and a 2-0 win for the home side capped the day off nicely.
As I mentioned at the top I don’t see trading being high on my list of priorities between now and August 8. Hopefully I’ll have some time during quiet nights at the hotel but I’m hoping that despite not being allowed out and about in Tokyo there will be opportunities to socialise with mates I don’t see much from Australia and the trading will fall on the back burner (time zones could be tricky also)
So 3 points green for what could be the last day for a few weeks will do me just fine and I’ll look to hit the 2nd half of the year refreshed after Tokyo will just wait and see. -
@keith-anderson it was mainly work orientated mate that was the reason for it not being as productive as I would have liked.
My outrights didn’t work which is fine these things happen. Earlier in the tournament my trading and results were going ok and just trailed off in the end.
I wasn’t getting a great deal of time and I wasn’t on here much either to even notice that there was something that you’d organised. You are correct tho there is always next time. -
@keith-anderson said in If I wanna go pro a blog might help me focus:
You would be 'Green' in the Euros if you layed Under 1.5 Goals. We often talk about daily trading plans. I actually had a 'Tournament Trading Plan' for the Euros. It consisted of Laying Under 1.5 Goals pre-game (set and forget) and LCS at HT. It might be something to look at in the future?
The Gold cup - north and Central America’s starts soon could be something to look at?
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You would be 'Green' in the Euros if you layed Under 1.5 Goals. We often talk about daily trading plans. I actually had a 'Tournament Trading Plan' for the Euros. It consisted of Laying Under 1.5 Goals pre-game (set and forget) and LCS at HT. It might be something to look at in the future?
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@james-woodroffe interesting stuff, well done on the outrights! good luck with getting into the US!
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Short brief blog update for June.
Looking back on the Euro’s and it hasn’t been a great success at all. I did some point damage on the outrights and there were definitely trades I
shouldn’t have got involved in over the past couple of weeks.
The cricket started diabolically with that first Eng v NZ test but I was able to come back with the other test matches here and in the Caribbean but it was a red month of note and I need to take lessons from it despite a really strong finish it was still poor.
The Eng v SL series was anticlimactic as SL are incredibly poor and as a result there was just no point getting involved. The WI v SA T20 series just went by courtesy of work also.As far as my football trading is concerned summer leagues are starting to show up on my filters and I’ll be looking to continue as a predominantly 2nd half trader where football is concerned. LTD - LCS trading is where I’m most comfortable and it’s clearly where I get my best results and I’ll look
to continue to tweak and collect data on my O1.5 filter but that’s in its infancy and will depend a lot on time I get away from work.I have some outrights going at Wimbledon and will be looking to green up on them over the next couple of days. My French open outrights definitely helped also soften the blow of that first test loss.
Getting a Visa for the US might produce a problem this year and it’s already cost me some work so I have to remain vigilant and disciplined and not over trade in case I find myself home for extended periods of time (like last year) and forcing trades as a result. If I can get it sorted then it could be a quiet period I’ll just have to wait and see.
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@james-woodroffe good work as ever!
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Wow what a crazy week and dare I say it particularly long week in Southampton for the inaugural WTC final and what a cracking result for the mighty Black Caps!!
From a trading perspective it was pretty quiet on the Euro’s front those early games which clashed with being on air just fell into the too hard basket.
I did manage to get on a couple of the 8pm matches back at the hotel but it was all pretty chilled out.
The main thing I’ve got from upping my bank recently has been a good shift in Zero F’s attitude if my potential trades haven’t qualified and not gone chasing if I just missed the boat on one that I was looking at which I was determined to master. Before Covid and the sudden lack of work I was definitely guilty of just adding more to the bank cause I could afford it if I made a series of bad trades and as a result I wasn’t helping myself. There’s nothing quite like not working for 9 months to make you appreciate what you have in life as opposed to what you don’t have.The test final +3.3 points Green.
Firstly I just gotta say despite the loss of 2 days play and having to be away from home for another week despite living not that far from Southampton GOD I ENJOYED THAT!! I don’t work on anywhere near as much cricket as I used to and I love being involved in the production of test cricket especially even if it was hectic and two days were spent watching it rain. It was also nice to be able to keep the cricket traders here abreast of what was going on and I appreciate that Darri and Nathan appreciated it also. Anyway to the actual trading side of things and for me it was a simple LTD at 1.25 on either day 5 or 6 you’ll have to excuse my absent mindedness but those last 2 days kinda blended into 1. I’m pretty certain I laid it on day 5 at the start of the day with some 196 overs still remaining in the test. Those odds were crazy value and with ball dominating bat for the duration except for Kane Williamson’s 2 masterclasses I expected the odds to ballon out at some stage as I could see a result being likely despite at times it didn’t. Because of work I had to pick my moments and was happy to remove liability at 1.75. I greened up at 4.50 for 4.4 points but laid the Kiwis at 1.16 thinking I’d seen enough to think there was maybe another twist. Sadly I then got super busy the idea being to green up again at around 1.40 if it got there but I dunno if it did or not
I just got in the work zone. So I cost myself a point of profit but all in all I was happy with the trade and green. I’m
at Wimbledon from tomorrow so again I dunno how trading the rest of the Euro’s will go and I’m having a belated Father’s Day dinner tonight so I doubt I’ll trade the T20 so it might be a little quiet but I hope to be able to trade the 8pm matches if I’m finished. Another ramble for which I apologise and more importantly no politics
stay green gang. -
Nothing to report of great excitement from the final round of the US Open yesterday as I finished 1.5 points Red.
However given that it’s my blog I’m going to have a tiny rant.
2 weeks ago Jon Rahm was dragged off course 6 shots in the lead and disqualified from a PGA event courtesy of a positive PCR test and had it splashed all over the media that he had Covid. Much like that Scottish kid at the Euro’s who’s been ruled out of Scotland’s next game.
Last night Rahm wins the US Open.
I know a lot of people have suffered greatly in the past 15 months wether it be thru losing loved ones or livelihoods.
We are also 15 months into this and people need to know or at least read into the bollocks that is PCR testing. I’m not getting on a soapbox because this is a trading forum but with today having meant to be “Freedom Day” in the U.K. being ignorant to the political scam that is “cases” due to PCR positive testing is no longer acceptable. Even the bloke who invented the PCR test and won a bloody Nobel Prize said it wasn’t to be used for what it’s being used for. Sadly he’s dead so we can’t ask his opinion.
Players getting dragged off course young footballers having their names plastered all over the news and TV has testing positive to Covid from a test that is not fit for purpose it has to stop.
PCR testing is a billion dollar industry now, politicians and the like are making a fortune. I’ve lost count of the number of tests I’ve had since August last year when my work picked up again. It’s ridiculous.Anyway that’s just me and my next update will be firmly centred around my trading but as someone with a media background and with family who have worked as PR people for politicians PCR testing and the political pantomime behind it disgusts me.
Back to the football and watching it rain in Southampton -
@james-woodroffe said in If I wanna go pro a blog might help me focus:
@martin I’ve had some good results with winners and top 3 place getters but it’s only been majors and it’s still early only really 4 majors to go off.
Going to be a hell of a final day! So wide open
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@martin I’ve had some good results with winners and top 3 place getters but it’s only been majors and it’s still early only really 4 majors to go off.
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@james-woodroffe do you usually do well with these?
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I’ve thrown in some outrights for the US Open Golf starting today.
DeChambeau @ 19.50
DJ @ 20.0
Koepka @ 20.0
Finau @ 29.0
Hovland @ 30I’m off to Southampton later today for another bio bubble and hopefully a memorable awesome inaugural World Test Championship Final which might make trading the early Euro matches a bit tricky from tomorrow I’ll just have to wait and see.
I’m going to pull back on the O1.5 market for the next week and just concentrate on 2HG’s this will be in particular for the matches I won’t be getting a chance to watch.The France v Germany and Russia v Finland matches cost me a bit which I dragged back a touch following Wales v Turkey and Italy v Switzerland.
I’m still slightly in the Red for the Euro’s but if I stick to what works best for me I’m confident of turning that around quickly.
I also have a draw lay open in the women’s test in Bristol which I got at 1.39 and have already removed liability. -
Quick update before I get a stick shoved up my nose.
Euro’s going along nicely took a hit on the Spain match but doesn’t matter 0-0’s happen.
Still confident it’s going to be a good tournament trading wise and certainly won’t be chasing losses or losing sleep when I do hit a Red trade that’s for sure.
Keeping a running total will help where I’m at end of the month. Day to day not important. -
Hey gang,
Just thought I’d do a quick update as I’m going to be more disciplined here going forward as I look to really push on this year as I now feel I’m at the best place I have been with my trading.
Whilst I say that I’m going to begin with a stink trade that went well against me and I’m going to blame workI shouldn’t have got involved in the Lords test match because I was to busy in Paris and whilst I said I wasn’t going to trade tennis on tournaments I worked on I should have taken that advice re trading full stop. Like all of us nothing had been appearing on my football lists and so I think I got over excited by the return of the cricket. An unexpected washout on day 3 and it was a pretty nasty hit.So for this week and the return of football with the Euro’s, 2 test matches and my French Open outrights.
The football is in the Red following the England game and laying U1.5. Only 2 points but had I not been drunk and forgotten to do the Russia game it would only be 1 point. As I said on the football thread it’s my sons 6th birthday today and his party was yesterday and trading the Euro’s let alone watching them yesterday was never really going to happen. I only heard about Erikson today so was oblivious about everything. I’m treating the U1.5’s as a set and forget but also just using small stakes. My main strategy will remain being LTD and LCS around 65 mins.I didn’t trade the tennis but I did post on the tennis thread my outrights before leaving for Paris and today closed out the men’s winner for 5 points green. I got Tsitsipas at 7.60 after the draw was released prior to that he was 10.0 and I also saw him around 9.20. Once Rafa and Djoko were put on the same side of the draw 7.60 for Titties looked great value and despite a tough semi final always looked the finalist from that side of the draw. I closed out after he won the first set of the final and cost my self a few points as he won the 2nd but if Djoko had won and I stayed in 5 points would probably have been 2.5 at a set a piece.
I also posted my women’s out rights but have to admit I messed about with those in Paris once Barty fell and I caught some of Swiatek’s doubles I added some random names to them who I never thought I’d see deep in a slam and when it became Big Pav v Bill Murray in the final it was a wise call I closed out for almost 14 points but that helps when the two finalists are long shots. I pretty much covered the field from Quarter Final stage on and only had to back small amounts given the number of players at healthy odds. I’ll sit down tomorrow and post the actual odds I got at the time.The cricket was lovely to bounce back from after Lords. I’ve decided to give the PSL a miss as I only have a few days before my next job and the times aren’t family friendly and with all the changes to squads I really couldn’t care less.
However both tests this week have served me well.
I laid England at 1.66 on day 1 when they won the toss and batted and then laid the draw late on day 2 at 3.40 with England around 3.60. The odds for England were ridiculous on day 1 and a slap in the face to an excellent test side in NZ. When things quietened down last night I checked the score and it was basically all over. I could have let it run but after Lords and at almost max profit I just ended it and finished 8.4 points green.
The SA v WI test was as simple as it gets. The SA attack is pretty impressive the ball was doing a bit early and Rabada and Ngigi were bowling quick. I think it was 2.52 I got SA at and next thing WI all out 92 I was done by tea on day 1 with 4.2 points green.Anyway that’s a bloody long ramble I’ll just finish by saying after much deliberation I’ve decided to double my bank from what I started with. It’s a decision that comes from a mindset now of having paid my dues making stupid mistakes, laying at dumb prices cause you don’t really know what you’re doing and of course the old chestnut of doing stupid things more than once and let’s not forget FOMO! It’s a good feeling being more stable with work picking up again and it’s helped my trading big time as it’s no longer the focus or be all and end all of my day. Going back to work has reiterated how I want to do this going forward full time or at the least whilst I still have to work very profitable for when I’m home. I feel that time isn’t far away, I’ve learnt so much but so much more only I could control.
I’m hoping to get a bit more vocal again with posting and helping the new guys as best I can, as I was helped when I joined here. Christ I’ve gone on anyway more proper updates more note keeping and result filing and onwards and upwards we go. -
Wow 4 months since I last posted on this blog so much for that idea.
I decided to go off the radar this last few weeks to a large degree and to take stock of my trading and what was happening with it now that I was back at work.
I’m happy that I did it’s been quite cathartic to be fair.
Ever since I went back to work my trading has been the beneficiary probably more so this last 3 weeks whilst I’ve been away.
I’m pretty sure it was @Darri I mentioned it to where I said I’m actually looking forward to taking the pressure off myself to make money and maybe just go all the way back to the start of the journey but already aware of the mistakes that rookie traders make when they first start.
The results have taken care of themselves during this time. I haven’t been posting a great deal, I’ve just been worrying about what I’m doing and I guess taking pressure off myself to post trades and just focus on the little things.
One bit of hypocrisy however was I did trade the tennis from time to time whilst I was away. Not a lot but opportunities did present themselves so I pounced even tho I said I wasn’t going to trade tennis whilst working on it and it was something that I would come back to.
Anyway with the summer leagues appearing on filters and a super busy time with work coming up my next plan is to keep better records of my trades going forward. I’ve learnt a hell of a lot this past 2 years from some great traders and feel in a good place to tackle the rest of 2021.
