Ryan’s over 1.5 split strategy

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@ryan-carruthers said in Ryan’s over 1.5 split strategy:

Wow another great spot, I'm just no waiting for actually Ryan if you do 40% and 3.2 then you don't need to trade out as its more profitable as straight bets

Based on using 1.4 at 30' and 2.0 at 50' it wouldnt be profitable, whether you trade out at 70' or not. Sorry.....!

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@ryan-carruthers said in Ryan’s over 1.5 split strategy:

Wow another great spot, I'm just no waiting for actually Ryan if you do 40% and 3.2 then you don't need to trade out as its more profitable as straight bets

Now that would be too easy and you dont want that!

Ryan

Wow another great spot, I'm just no waiting for actually Ryan if you do 40% and 3.2 then you don't need to trade out as its more profitable as straight bets

Richard Latimer

@lee-woodman said in Ryan’s over 1.5 split strategy:

'Average goals scored per match average' is set to 3.0, which is usually a great benchmark but increasing this to 3.2 is a much better option

After the 40% is applied, those games between 3.0 and 3.19 gave a 3.39 pt loss over 155 games then things improve going for 3.2+.

Do you have the percentages we were discussing since 24 Jan? I didn't record these at the time? Also the ave goals now you've made another find haha!?

Richard Latimer

@lee-woodman said in Ryan’s over 1.5 split strategy:

'Average goals scored per match average' is set to 3.0, which is usually a great benchmark but increasing this to 3.2 is a much better option

After the 40% is applied, those games between 3.0 and 3.19 gave a 3.39 pt loss over 155 games then things improve going for 3.2+.

Wow. Another good spot.

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'Average goals scored per match average' is set to 3.0, which is usually a great benchmark but increasing this to 3.2 is a much better option

After the 40% is applied, those games between 3.0 and 3.19 gave a 3.39 pt loss over 155 games then things improve going for 3.2+.

Richard Latimer

Does anybody have percentages going back to the 24th Jan? Only been recording the teams and going on what we've discussed today it would be goood to check these.

Martin Walker

If ive read this correctly theres a recovery play here surely. Using 1 point stake backing a goal just before cashing out and being super conservative with odds, say 1.7 although more likely higher gives 42 points.
Obviously adjust the 1 point stake however you like

Richard Latimer

@ryan-carruthers said in Ryan’s over 1.5 split strategy:

I think 3.0 is a good barometer and has served me well, I will stick with it and not worry too much about leaving it out to track as the Strat is solid as is now adding in the 40% is solid.

Lecce is on my papertrading filter also and the more early goals there are the more I'll expect going on what I'm seeing so far.

Ryan

I think 3.0 is a good barometer and has served me well, I will stick with it and not worry too much about leaving it out to track as the Strat is solid as is now adding in the 40% is solid.

Richard Latimer

@lee-woodman said in Ryan’s over 1.5 split strategy:

@richard-latimer This way would catch those with an average under 3.0. Essentially it would see which of the stats are relevant

Yeah I see. I think over 3.0 is such a good barometer I wouldn't want to change that. Also, the other additional fixtures are purely and simply the addition of leagues not on the original filter.

France National and Eng 1 & 2.

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@richard-latimer said in Ryan’s over 1.5 split strategy:

@richard-latimer said in Ryan’s over 1.5 split strategy:

@chris-osborne said in Ryan’s over 1.5 split strategy:

@lee-woodman this is excellent, I need to think about this properly as it’s one of the few football strategies I’m using currently.

One point, the goals after 70 mins interests me, would an option be to create a free bet instead of cashing out, I know you’ll end up scratching some trades if the 2nd goal doesn’t come but can we potentially increase the profits that way?

The 70% is only a 0-0 stat so may be different after 1 goal. I don't know as not looked myself.

Plus, another goal is so dependent on when the first goal scored and who scored it. That I am finding out for myself on my filter.

Yes I’ve seen that, I have been following from a distance

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@richard-latimer This way would catch those with an average under 3.0. Essentially it would see which of the stats are relevant

Richard Latimer

@ryan-carruthers said in Ryan’s over 1.5 split strategy:

It can be built into the stats and get the same results - I have just tried this you want to copy my filter then add in Overall - Percentage - goal times 31-70 greater than or equal to 40

I have built it with just the Home team having 8 over 1.5 out of 10 and the away the same but with that 40% add on there and not my other narrowing and its given more results for today

Country League Date Home Away
England League Two 09/02/2021 17:30:00 Salford Cambridge Utd
Italy Serie B 09/02/2021 18:00:00 Lecce Brescia
England League One 09/02/2021 19:00:00 Bristol Rovers Oxford Utd
France National 09/02/2021 19:00:00 Cholet Concarneau
England Championship 09/02/2021 19:00:00 Rotherham Cardiff
England League Two 09/02/2021 19:00:00 Bolton Morecambe

Being stupid I'm sure but can't get my head around why this is so when both are essentially doing the same thing.

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in Ryan’s over 1.5 split strategy:

@chris-osborne said in Ryan’s over 1.5 split strategy:

@lee-woodman this is excellent, I need to think about this properly as it’s one of the few football strategies I’m using currently.

One point, the goals after 70 mins interests me, would an option be to create a free bet instead of cashing out, I know you’ll end up scratching some trades if the 2nd goal doesn’t come but can we potentially increase the profits that way?

The 70% is only a 0-0 stat so may be different after 1 goal. I don't know as not looked myself.

Plus, another goal is so dependent on when the first goal scored and who scored it. That I am finding out for myself on my filter.

Richard Latimer

@chris-osborne said in Ryan’s over 1.5 split strategy:

@lee-woodman this is excellent, I need to think about this properly as it’s one of the few football strategies I’m using currently.

One point, the goals after 70 mins interests me, would an option be to create a free bet instead of cashing out, I know you’ll end up scratching some trades if the 2nd goal doesn’t come but can we potentially increase the profits that way?

The 70% is only a 0-0 stat so may be different after 1 goal. I don't know as not looked myself.

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@lee-woodman this is excellent, I need to think about this properly as it’s one of the few football strategies I’m using currently.

One point, the goals after 70 mins interests me, would an option be to create a free bet instead of cashing out, I know you’ll end up scratching some trades if the 2nd goal doesn’t come but can we potentially increase the profits that way?

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@ryan-carruthers said in Ryan’s over 1.5 split strategy:

@lee-woodman Might be worth tracking both my version with the narrowing and the raw one with just the 8/10 games and the 40% of goals in that time to compare

It probably is worth tracking if you have the time but ill be looking to go the other way, reduce the number of trades where possible with the least impact on overall profit. I have a split stake filter which ive been tracking aswell which gives similar overall profit but over only 308 games so ill be running them simultaneously

Richard Latimer

@ryan-carruthers said in Ryan’s over 1.5 split strategy:

@lee-woodman Yep, I would imagine you'd need to use the 0.5 because then you need the one goal and don't need to trade out, plus the odds be pretty good at 70 mins.

Between 2.5 and 2.0 to lay under 0.5 I reckon. Looking at a similar thing myself.

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@ryan-carruthers Yes so trade out the O1.5 for a loss, then back O0.5 for whatever stake takes your fancy