Ryan’s over 1.5 split strategy
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@lee-woodman Yep, I would imagine you'd need to use the 0.5 because then you need the one goal and don't need to trade out, plus the odds be pretty good at 70 mins.
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@ryan-carruthers Yes so ive discarded anything under 40% and just took it from the sheet im looking at. So some sort of staking plan which saves a bit back to recover some of the loss might work
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@lee-woodman Might be worth tracking both my version with the narrowing and the raw one with just the 8/10 games and the 40% of goals in that time to compare
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@ryan-carruthers said in Ryan’s over 1.5 split strategy:
@lee-woodman Jesus that's 72% of games at 70 mins getting a goal - thats excluding the 40% initially?
That's a strat on its own right there!
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@ryan-carruthers Thats good to know. I was just going to add it into my sheet so its done automatically, but its even easier if done at source!
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@lee-woodman Jesus that's 72% of games at 70 mins getting a goal - thats excluding the 40% initially?
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Incidentally it has a great SR for a goal post 70' on the games that do qualify but that havent had a goal by 70'. Of 172 games with no SH goal by 70', 126 went on to have at least one. For games that havent had a SH goal by 60', 192 out of 240 had one after 60'
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It can be built into the stats and get the same results - I have just tried this you want to copy my filter then add in Overall - Percentage - goal times 31-70 greater than or equal to 40
I have built it with just the Home team having 8 over 1.5 out of 10 and the away the same but with that 40% add on there and not my other narrowing and its given more results for today
Country League Date Home Away
England League Two 09/02/2021 17:30:00 Salford Cambridge Utd
Italy Serie B 09/02/2021 18:00:00 Lecce Brescia
England League One 09/02/2021 19:00:00 Bristol Rovers Oxford Utd
France National 09/02/2021 19:00:00 Cholet Concarneau
England Championship 09/02/2021 19:00:00 Rotherham Cardiff
England League Two 09/02/2021 19:00:00 Bolton Morecambe -
@lee-woodman said in Ryan’s over 1.5 split strategy:
@ryan-carruthers @Richard-Latimer Yes thats its
It doesnt add profit, but you wouldnt trade those 100 games for 1pt so may aswell remove them
If it removes more volatility and allows you to scale up quicker you could argue it will give more profit.
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@ryan-carruthers @Richard-Latimer Yes thats its
It doesnt add profit, but you wouldnt trade those 100 games for 1pt so may aswell remove them
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So then it would look like this @Lee-woodman?
Country League Date Home Away Criteria1Val Criteria2Val 31-70 Ov Scored
Italy Serie B 09/02/2021 18:00:00 Lecce Brescia 9 8 35 64 54.6875
England Championship 10/02/2021 19:00:00 Reading Brentford 10 8 26 60 43.3333333333333
Scotland Premiership 10/02/2021 20:00:00 St. Mirren Celtic 8 9 25 60 41.6666666666667 -
@lee-woodman said in Ryan’s over 1.5 split strategy:
@richard-latimer I don’t, it’s a criteria taken from the last 2 criteria in the filter
So in terms of today's it's like 35/64 = 0.546 or 54.6%?
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@richard-latimer I don’t, it’s a criteria taken from the last 2 criteria in the filter
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@lee-woodman said in Ryan’s over 1.5 split strategy:
@richard-latimer Yes it says apply a minimum so it basically rules out anything from 30-40% which is break even sort of territory. Im not sure if the stat is in the filter but its basically taken from dividing the last 2 criteria in the filter
Not got my computer to hand at the moment but I'm guessing you don't mean odds actually haha
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@lee-woodman said in Ryan’s over 1.5 split strategy:
@richard-latimer Yes it says apply a minimum so it basically rules out anything from 30-40% which is break even sort of territory. Im not sure if the stat is in the filter but its basically taken from dividing the last 2 criteria in the filter
Do you mean odds wise. I don't go below 1.4 in 30th minute.
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@richard-latimer Yes it says apply a minimum so it basically rules out anything from 30-40% which is break even sort of territory. Im not sure if the stat is in the filter but its basically taken from dividing the last 2 criteria in the filter
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@lee-woodman said in Ryan’s over 1.5 split strategy:
Just been having a look into some data on this split stake filter as im looking to introduce it, along with my own, as i get settled on my LCS stuff.
If you look at % goals scored 30-70 and apply a minimum of 40% it reduces the trades by over 100 since august but only reduces the approx total profit by 1 pt and thus reduces the variance. Ive put some figures below on rough P/L over the last 6 months using data kindly provided by Alan Steward, based on an approx profit of 0.25 per trade and average loss of 0.66pts
At first glance it may not look overly exciting but consider that each trade risks just 0.66pt, so its quite feasible to use 2pts and risk 1.33pts overall. If you did that it gives an average of 4.3pts a month. That is also scalable aswell, if you build up to risking 2pts overall then you have hit an average of 5pts profit per month - thats halfway towards a very respectable monthly profit which is decent for a strategy which is put on a plate, has done well over time and is easy to grasp
What do you mean reduce by 40%? Or rather apply a minimum?
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Just been having a look into some data on this split stake filter as im looking to introduce it, along with my own, as i get settled on my LCS stuff.
If you look at % goals scored 30-70 and apply a minimum of 40% it reduces the trades by over 100 since august but only reduces the approx total profit by 1 pt and thus reduces the variance. Ive put some figures below on rough P/L over the last 6 months using data kindly provided by Alan Steward, based on an approx profit of 0.25 per trade and average loss of 0.66pts
At first glance it may not look overly exciting but consider that each trade risks just 0.66pt, so its quite feasible to use 2pts and risk 1.33pts overall. If you did that it gives an average of 4.3pts a month. That is also scalable aswell, if you build up to risking 2pts overall then you have hit an average of 5pts profit per month - thats halfway towards a very respectable monthly profit which is decent for a strategy which is put on a plate, has done well over time and is easy to grasp
