HT Bounce
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Ok... this is an old strategy that might be dead in the water due to over automation but I thought I might give it a whirl.
Like most of my ideas it will probably fizzle out due to lack of stamina and interest.
Any input advice etc. very much welcome.It's a simple idea. Basically at HT in a big money game expecting goals but having had 0 or only 1 goal scored punters lump their money on the next correct score during the break and the current correct score should dip slightly then bounce back hence the name 'HT Bounce'. You're "supposed" to enter your Lay position just before the whistle goes for HT and then exit for a 1 or 2 tick bounce in your favour.
I'm going to try to record some games, screen recording with charts open, and see if any trend can be spotted during the interval. Hats of to BB Folan who suggested using the Marker Overview chart.
22/11
I tried to trade the Man City v Feyenoord match last night but as I was still trying to set the charts up I only entered my Lay after the whistle had blown. I entered at 9.2 and then the odds quickly dropped to 8.4 then stabilised for the rest of the break at 8.6 so it didn't work, was actually a complete washout, so not the best start.I won't tell you that I refused to exit my position for a red when the 2nd half commenced and left the Lay position open, sweating away, until the goal came at the 88th minute as that would just be 100% gambling!
This is the criteria I'm currently using to select games, will add more.
1). Big money game.
2). High expectation of Over 2.5 goals.
3). Low or no goals at half time. -
I tried another match the following day.
I jumped on Backing the the next fav score and it drifted out.As predicted it dawned on me pretty quickly that sitting there watching lines on a chart bobbing up and down soon loses it's interest.
I was going to delete this topic but thought newbies might want to read it.
Matt
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@martin-futter if you want the price to drift punters need to be motivated to enter the market. They need to expect an imminent goal so they lump on the next scoreline and the current scoreline will drift. You need money to be coming into the market. That's the premise of this strat. Why odds would drift and then comeback down I have no idea. Why would they not just drift and stay up. Maybe the drift is caused by expectation and then the steam is caused by time decay within the 15 mins. Not sure.
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@john-folan In all seriousness. I'm not sure of the best criteria. What you said seems the most logical.
I think you have a point. It's about punter expectation and size of market.
I'm presuming a punter would be thinking "surely there is going to be a goal here, I'll stick some money on during the break".
Also it maybe best just to try to identify what the trend will be and jump on the back of it for a tick or two.
"Can I get a tick or two!" sounds like fiddler on the roof!
Maybe I will eventually give-up looking for any type of bounce from seeing what I learn looking at the HT markets.
The thing about laying the CS before the interval is if a goal comes you're guaranteed a green. -
@john-folan you're a moron.
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Call me a moron, but surely you would be better off looking for games with a short odds favourite where the dog is leading or the game is currently a draw.
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@matt-dadley Will be following this with interest buddy
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22/11/17
Last night I tried to monitor the odds on 3 CL games during the HT interval.
I was initially going to monitor 2 games.
One with a clear fav and one with balanced odds teams but a friend suggested I also monitor a 3rd game with a strong fav and as it was nearly half time possibly staying 0-0 at ht.During the interval either not a lot happened or as I was trying to watch 3 games I missed things.
I feel it's more likely I missed things.
I also haven't got a comfortable software setup yet.I did actually trade one game over the interval, Anderlecht v Bayern Munich.
Bayern Munich were massive favs @1.29 and the game was 0-0 at HT.I noticed during the break that the 0-1 was the fav CS at around 5.3.
The 0-0 was the 2nd fav CS @7's
Having caught my eye, perhaps simply due to the way the chart was set up, I noticed the odds were flickering quite a bit between 7 and 6.8I decided to BACK at 7 as I thought the odds would touch 6.8 again.
Soon after Backing the odds moved up to 7.2 I set a back at 7.2 to try to enter the market again but the position sat there for 5 mins without being taken.
Eventually after what felt like ages, 5 mins+, the odds dropped from 7 to 6.8 and my Lay position was matched.
I cancelled the waiting Back @7.2As the 2nd half started the odds rapidly dropped to 6.4 I was glad however that I had exited the trade and did not go in play as a goal came in the 51st minute.
From my Back @7 and Lay @6.8 I made a roi of 2.75% after comms.
I noticed that the odds for both the 0-0 and 0-1 both slightly shortened during the interval.
I noticed flickering on the 0-0.
I did not see any bounce.‎Someone who also trades the HT interval said "It is like staring at one of those old magic pictures. You don't see anything for ages and then it slowly becomes clear". I like that analogy and I hope it becomes clear.
Stats:
Anderlecht (KO @13) Bayern (KO @1.29)
1x2 Matched Amount 1 million.
Matched O2.5 Amount 36k (lower than other games)
Statarea (O2.5 69%) (Home 25% / Draw 16% / Away 59%)
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@martin-futter ok so you're saying that due to the odds on no SHG being so good punters would choose to Back the current score rather than Backing the next scoreline? What's the logic of going for games where goals are not likely?
