SH Goal Filters
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@lee-woodman will keep an eye on that, I have leagues like Peru that I think could be gotten rid of long term, will check data
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@martin-futter I dont really like the South American leagues to be honest. Paraguay seems ok but not keen on the others. I did have Brazil as an 'A' league but havent actually traded one, probably due to times. I only have about 35 South American games but there is a big drop-off in results
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@lee-woodman said in SH Goal Filters:
Bit of an update for filter 2, which has hit 150 games:
I decided to add some of the ratings criteria and have a look at some of the results. One that stands out for me is the ELO difference >= 0 in favour of the home team. Too early to do anything with, but very interesting nonetheless so will definitely monitor this!
outstanding work!
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@lee-woodman said in SH Goal Filters:
Bit of an update for filter 2, which has hit 150 games:
I decided to add some of the ratings criteria and have a look at some of the results. One that stands out for me is the ELO difference >= 0 in favour of the home team. Too early to do anything with, but very interesting nonetheless so will definitely monitor this!
Awesome stuff!!!
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Bit of an update for filter 2, which has hit 150 games:
I decided to add some of the ratings criteria and have a look at some of the results. One that stands out for me is the ELO difference >= 0 in favour of the home team. Too early to do anything with, but very interesting nonetheless so will definitely monitor this!
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@finn-kristensen Thats based on HT. Obviously laying at HT isn’t ideal but just a benchmark. After 60’ is about 83% from memory
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@lee-woodman said in SH Goal Filters:
@david-urquhart Yes that looks better to me! Not sure what was happening but all sorted now. I think im running at 90% for my Grade A leagues over 225 games, so far so good!
Is that for SHG at HT or at 60 minutes?
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@david-urquhart said in SH Goal Filters:
@Lee-woodman Another great Saturday for filter 1 which I have been following since you posted it. If I have set it up correctly that was 22 games 1 loser today and the strike rate after 76 games is now 87.84% very impressive thanks for sharing it.
I will continue testing this but now for the future I am now thinking about how best to use the filter. I was thinking about split stakes aiming for 1.5 and 2 which would give a good profit but after following the results I feel I would miss out on a lot of goals which come early. Not sure if it's worthwhile the smaller the odds but then feel these will all help towards a loss. I was wondering if you are now putting the filter into practice and if so what kind of odds you have been aiming for. After listening to Martins recent podcasts about some strategies and variance within them I believe you need to be on every game which I will find impossible with work etc. Has anybody any ideas how best to tackle this.
pretty pretty pretty good!
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@david-urquhart Personally i stay in and let it run. Ive not looked into whether itd be more profitable to cashout. I like to keep things as simple as possible, and if its profitable in the most simple way then im happy with that
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@lee-woodman Yeah was thinking 1.5 and 2 but feel you will miss out on a lot. I liked the way you were doing it lay the unders and the correct score around 3.5. Feel that will catch a lot of the early goals. I take it when you lay the unders 2 over the current score when a SH goal goes in you trade out for profit or do you stay in that market for another goal for the full return.
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@david-urquhart Maybe just split in 2 and back at say 1.4 and 1.7, or 1.5 and 1.8 or whatever you feel comfortable with
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@lee-woodman I’m the same would like to have something in place that becomes second nature don’t have to think to much about it you know what you are doing can get it on without much hassle. When the leagues are in full swing Saturday afternoons could get busy and by having a set way to trade will surely only help
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@david-urquhart It is easier said than done, i agree, and its something ive tinkered with slightly. But if it has a good SR after HT, after 60', after 70' and after 80' then i would say it comes down to preference of risk/reward. I like to have a set entry point then it becomes a bit more robotic to me, if i try too much to judge it inplay and i miss out then i beat myself up. But thats just me, others will be better at judging it and better at not being bothered if they hold off too long!
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@lee-woodman unbelievable strike rate long may it continue. I have been trying to get the historical betfair data to check prices on specific games to try and find the best entry point and pattern with odds but easier said than done.
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@david-urquhart Yes that looks better to me! Not sure what was happening but all sorted now. I think im running at 90% for my Grade A leagues over 225 games, so far so good!
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I did wonder why I was getting they games in the filter as German leagues only played a couple of games I thought. I didn’t do any pre match research just been following the games that the filter provides and filling in the data. Going through my spreadsheet just now it appears there are lots of games that are early on in the season so something not quite right there. I have deleted the filter and started again and have these games for today would that be right. Hopefully got it fixed now but even so very promising nearly 88% strike rate including games early on in the season can surely only bode well for when the season is in full swing.
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@lee-woodman it’s a fine line we’re all going to face after the international break, my suggestion for what it’s worth would be to look at average goals per game for the different leagues and filter out the low scoring ones until proven other wise.
You will get anomalies though such as The Championship which is tracking a lot lower this season so far than previous years.
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@lee-woodman Yes I have been thinking about this too. Like you, the only solution I came up with was times I am free to trade and pre match research being done on the games within that time. Making sure top scorers, top assiters (new word invention
) are all on the pitch.
