SH Goal Filters

Matt Wood

@finn-kristensen
this is a good question guys and i was thikning about this myself.
From looking at leagues i think it can be as important as the strategy itself to get correct.

Has anybody got any ideas how you may select the best leagues to trade (your grade A leagues).

Do you do it on how big the league is. For example the spanish leagues is one of the big guns but rubbish for goals.

Any tips qwould be great.

I am thinking of looking at average goals scored for over 1.5 and over 2.5 goals.

So my A leagues would be those leagues that have a high percentage of games over 1.5 goals (league average above 80%) My B Leagues maybe those around 77-79%.

How does everyone else decide which are the best leagues to trade?

From a purely stats point of view I have run just under 200 games with all leagues. Based on the best performers in that I have graded them 'A' and the others have been graded 'B'.

Now my tracking spreadsheet still has ALL leagues but have separated out the results into three sections, those being ALL, 'A' only and 'B' only.

From now on I can fairly easily switch a league from 'A' to 'B' and see what that does to the numbers.

From a subjective point of view I think everyone on here would have a slightly differing choice of As and Bs but they would loosely fall into more or less the same dividing lines.

Another point to add into the mix would be liquidity for those with bigger banks (not jealous at all ). No good having a fantastic performing league if there is no money there.

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@finn-kristensen
this is a good question guys and i was thikning about this myself.
From looking at leagues i think it can be as important as the strategy itself to get correct.

Has anybody got any ideas how you may select the best leagues to trade (your grade A leagues).

Do you do it on how big the league is. For example the spanish leagues is one of the big guns but rubbish for goals.

Any tips qwould be great.

I am thinking of looking at average goals scored for over 1.5 and over 2.5 goals.

So my A leagues would be those leagues that have a high percentage of games over 1.5 goals (league average above 80%) My B Leagues maybe those around 77-79%.

How does everyone else decide which are the best leagues to trade?

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@finn-kristensen Hi Finn, I record all leagues (except the youth and regional leagues) but recently I’ve split the leagues in two based on my opinion of the quality of that league from a trading perspective. I still record the grade B but only actually trade the grade A leagues

Finn Kristensen

Hi Lee

Do you filter out certain leagues or are all leagues valid as long as the matches fulfill the criteria?

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@Martin-Futter What would the calculation be for average profit per £10 staked to break even?

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@martin-futter will add this column mate see how I get on. Thanks

Martin

@lee-woodman said in SH Goal Filters:

@ben-dobie yeah I get what your saying but that’s phase 2; live testing. We can get a great filter with a great SR but then if the odds don’t stack up when actually trading then it won’t work. We need to be honest and conservative in our estimations of average odds and have a decent margin when comparing SR to odds

yep, that's why I add the 'average profit per £10 staked to break even' if you get that amount you can have a good idea if something will be profitable

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@lee-woodman agreed mate, my recording uses odds of 3.3 at 60 and 2.24 at 70 there’s room for movement in both of those both are still profitable at 3.5 and 2.5 ...what would you consider average odds at this times ?

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@ben-dobie yeah I get what your saying but that’s phase 2; live testing. We can get a great filter with a great SR but then if the odds don’t stack up when actually trading then it won’t work. We need to be honest and conservative in our estimations of average odds and have a decent margin when comparing SR to odds

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@lee-woodman thanks mate, I do the same but I’m starting to wonder how much of an effect on live trading it has when our strike rates don’t consider games that didn’t qualify. On my H2 filter every strategy is potentially profitable but that’s based upon the odds I consider as average and every game meeting those odds but obviously that’s not the case. Maybe I’m overthinking after a poor weekend

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@ben-dobie Hi Ben. No i still record them on my sheet as results but obviously if i dont get involved then i dont record them on my trading P/L sheet

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@Lee-woodman hello mate, quick question. When recording your results and strike rates do you remove the games that didn’t qualify due to poor odds ?

Martin

@ryan-carruthers betexplorer is your friend in that regard, as long as you have the games you can put some time aside and go through it all relatively quickly

Ryan

I like recording goal times as well, mainly due to the fact that I've tracked things before thinking that they would be a good filter for X idea then gone oh s**t these goals are coming later than I thought would it work for X version 2, oh I've got 300 results and no goal times!

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@matt-wood No problem! I know its hard but try to record data now that you MAY want to consider in the future because to go back over the results later will be very time consuming. Even if you just have a 'goal times' column listing all goal times then you can get the info you need from that. Obviously its a balance as you cant record endless amounts of data but i think goal times at various points is a big reference point when looking at SH goals. Mine doesnt really take long to update each day but i can look at loads of different angles from the data i have

Matt Wood

@lee-woodman Massive thanks Lee. That answered my ponderings perfectly

For myself I am just looking at the 1st goal in the 2H at the moment as I want to keep things very simple to build my bank.
I am however trying to set up my spreadsheet data in such a way that it will allow me to expand my strategies in the future without having to start the whole process over.

Ultimately I think I will be wanting to do a split stake of +1.5 from the HT score. I guess though this will only be if no previous 2HG too.

I do also like the idea in the future of LCS/LTD later in the half so recording things in a similar way to yourself makes perfect sense.

I need to make a few tweaks to my spreadsheet later this evening but once I have done that I will post a link to see what you think. Currently not much data as on a 2nd round of testing. 1st 160odd games were a little too inconsistent so tightened things up a little on the filter and going again.

I really like your idea of a grade system for the leagues. It has always bugged me that just outright removing 'lesser' leagues may be throwing out the baby with the bathwater type thing. Your idea of still tracking the data but separating them out in the results is great. Will add this into my SS this evening.

Really appreciate you taking the time out to answer me Lee, you have helped focus things in my head a bit better.

Also seems you have a cracking filter too, well done

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@matt-wood Those figures i have quoted are independent of each other and also disregarding what has already happened in that half already. So i have looked at each game and simply said 'has that had a goal after 60' and then its either yes or no. And then done the same with 70' and the same with 80'. So if the goal times were 55', 65', 75', 85' then it would go in all 3 columns. If there was 1 SH goal and it came on 81' then it would also go in all 3. If the SH goal times were 46' and 65' then it would go in the first one only. I was looking whether LCS at various points through the SH was viable and this helps me achieve that. I do record the first SH goal separately so i can also see what the SR is on 60', 70' and 80' only factoring in those games which havent had a SH goal already. The SR is marginally better but obviously less results the longer into the half you wait.

My results sheets has the following columns: Date, League, Home Team, Away Team, League Grade, HT Score, FT Score, First Goal Time, First SH goal time, Goal Times, No. of FH goals, No. of SH goals, Total Goals, Goals after 60', Goals After 70', Goals after 80'

Everyone will have different but i feel it is quick enough for me to update my sheet and allows me to quickly see number of winning trades etc. If you are struggling with your own then let us know what youre trying to achieve, what youre trying to record, look for etc and i'll see if i have any input

Matt Wood

First off Lee, thanks for sharing this as its such a great help to those of us learning

I have a question about how you track your data, have reached a problem with mine.

If you had a qualifying game that had a goal in the 63 min this would be recorded in your stats as a SH and an after 60 goal, then if another goal went in during the 2H about 74mins would you also record that goal in the after 70?

I only ask this as my brain is wondering if this is double counting?

I am guessing your strategy would follow so that you do not enter a game if a 2HG has gone in before your entry point? If so then taking my above scenario lets say your entry point is 65mins, you would dismiss the game (goal in 63 min) and move on?

If this is the case then any statistic that had goals after that first one on the 63rd min is redundant?

Sorry if I am overthinking, or more likely just plain wrong lol, I have hit a wall in how to record my own data around this issue.

Cheers in advance

Daniel Cooper

@gary-brown said in SH Goal Filters:

this is really helpful Lee.
I am trying to use the criteria for filter 1.

for tomorrow i have 2 games listed.
These are
shanghai SIPG game at 1pm
also a game in norway at 5pm

have i created the filter correct so far guys?

Whats happened to the Norway game? Has it disappeared?

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@mull said in SH Goal Filters:

@gary-brown Yes mate.

thanks Mull.

I need to try and get back on track again