SH Goal Filters
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@matt-wood Excatly, thats something thats crossed my mind. Not sure exactly how to narrow it down further as i dont really have further criteria in my filter to tighten up on, not that tightening up past a certain point always has a positive affect
I guess it will come down to pre-match research, being pickier in-play (prices and stats) and being selective about trading times (ie sticking to certain trading windows)
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If you only got one game out of 23 without a 2nd half goal though then that is pretty decent!
Im generally only getting a few games per day at most, although this should increase when the winter leagues have played a few more
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@david-urquhart Something doesnt seem right with that, some of those leagues have only played a couple of games and therefore, like Matt said, would be excluded by the 'Matches Played' criteria. I cant see what is wrong with the filter though as you have the criteria applied
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@david-urquhart Sorry if I am being stupid David but looking at your list of results from that filter there seems to be a fair number that should have been excluded by the 'Ov. Matches Played>=10' line?
Germany, Poland and others.
Am I missing something here?
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@oe said in SH Goal Filters:
@david-urquhart ...hmm 22 games 1 loser today?
Have I missed out something? I have the filter 1 with the A list with leagues and I had 0 games today. But Sunday there is 4 games.
Have I done something wrong with the filter?
@OE This is how I have the filter set up and the results from yesterday. Haven’t filtered out any leagues but going by the filter that is now 76 games with a 87.84% strike rate. I started recording the games on 23rd September.
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@Martin-Futter is this likely to be added to the members filters in future, along with a strategy write up? I think you’ve got it on your books but are testing yourself?
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@david-urquhart ...hmm 22 games 1 loser today?
Have I missed out something? I have the filter 1 with the A list with leagues and I had 0 games today. But Sunday there is 4 games.
Have I done something wrong with the filter?
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@lee-woodman Yeah that's what I thought. Thought I was missing a market somewhere
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@david-urquhart I just lay the next 2 overs, depending on the HT score. So if theres 1 FH goal you'd lay U2.5, for 2 FH goals lay U3.5 and so on. Loads of liquidity in those markets
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@lee-woodman said in SH Goal Filters:
For LCS at 3.5 i usually get matched between 60-65. I havent narrowed down to particular scorelines, there isnt enough data to see whether i should leave certain scores
When you say over 1.5 SH goals I take it theres a market for that. Probably a daft question but can't see anything. Going well so far definitely money to be made
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@david-urquhart For over 1.5 SH goals i take the price at 50'. Its very rarely above 2.2, i go up to a max of 2.4 but my overall average is slightly under 2.0
For LCS at 3.5 i usually get matched between 60-65. I havent narrowed down to particular scorelines, there isnt enough data to see whether i should leave certain scores
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@lee-woodman Thanks Lee. Do you just take whatever price is available at 50 mins and what kind of time in the game are you getting LCS at 3.5 roughly. Do you only trade the game if there has been 1 goal in the first half as well or regardless of the scoreline. When watching a few games today with the price movements I felt even at 1.5 I would miss a lot of games which wouldn't be great long term. You end up wanting a goal but not wanting it till the 80th minute to make the most green. Which isn't ideal.
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@david-urquhart said in SH Goal Filters:
Another great Saturday for filter 1 which I have been f
Filter 1 is the one i trade currently. I back O1.5 SH goals on 50' and then i LCS. I usually split my stake up and lay at 3.5 and 2.5. I wouldnt worry about missing some of the games, its just the nature of trading, Its not always possible to get on every trade so just get on those that you can
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@Lee-woodman Another great Saturday for filter 1 which I have been following since you posted it. If I have set it up correctly that was 22 games 1 loser today and the strike rate after 76 games is now 87.84% very impressive thanks for sharing it.
I will continue testing this but now for the future I am now thinking about how best to use the filter. I was thinking about split stakes aiming for 1.5 and 2 which would give a good profit but after following the results I feel I would miss out on a lot of goals which come early. Not sure if it's worthwhile the smaller the odds but then feel these will all help towards a loss. I was wondering if you are now putting the filter into practice and if so what kind of odds you have been aiming for. After listening to Martins recent podcasts about some strategies and variance within them I believe you need to be on every game which I will find impossible with work etc. Has anybody any ideas how best to tackle this.
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@daniel-cooper I’ll check later and let you know. There’s not been many in the last week since I started this post
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Hi @Lee-woodman , how many selections have you had since the posting of your first filter in this thread? I think I only have the three selections, but wanted to check!
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Just to clarify, when I graded leagues I didn’t look at any figures until after I had graded them. I think there’s far too little data to do that as most leagues may only have 10 or so results, in which case just a couple of results can swing it. I did it because i believed the better quality leagues are more competitive, better quality, better players in that final push of the game, more consistency from players, bigger squads to change things etc.
Most traders would have slightly different lists but would agree on 80-90% and any disagreement on the odd league wouldn’t really dilute the figures by much
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@gary-brown said in SH Goal Filters:
@finn-kristensen
this is a good question guys and i was thikning about this myself.
From looking at leagues i think it can be as important as the strategy itself to get correct.Has anybody got any ideas how you may select the best leagues to trade (your grade A leagues).
Do you do it on how big the league is. For example the spanish leagues is one of the big guns but rubbish for goals.
Any tips qwould be great.
I am thinking of looking at average goals scored for over 1.5 and over 2.5 goals.
So my A leagues would be those leagues that have a high percentage of games over 1.5 goals (league average above 80%) My B Leagues maybe those around 77-79%.
How does everyone else decide which are the best leagues to trade?
From a purely stats point of view I have run just under 200 games with all leagues. Based on the best performers in that I have graded them 'A' and the others have been graded 'B'.
Now my tracking spreadsheet still has ALL leagues but have separated out the results into three sections, those being ALL, 'A' only and 'B' only.
From now on I can fairly easily switch a league from 'A' to 'B' and see what that does to the numbers.
From a subjective point of view I think everyone on here would have a slightly differing choice of As and Bs but they would loosely fall into more or less the same dividing lines.
Another point to add into the mix would be liquidity for those with bigger banks (not jealous at all
). No good having a fantastic performing league if there is no money there.
