Martin's Tennis Trading Notes
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@martin-futter You seen the Sousa/Marterer one! Looks another cracker for scalping on serve.
M - SGW is 90%
S - SGW is 80%Little note on that as well Sousa converts 25% of break points in the first set as well, so might be worth laying him if he gets a Breakpoint in set one 15-40 or something along those lines.
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ATP is back!
Montpellier - France
In all seven years this tournament has existed a Frenchman has won it or made the final, expect them to come strong again this week!
Quito - Ecuador
Victor Estrella Burgos (Dominica) v Tomasz Bellucci (Brazil)
Betfair odds - Estrella 1.63
Martin's odds - Estrella 1.5Key trading stats to the match -
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Estrella leads the head to head 4-0 all on clay
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4 of their last 7 sets played have been tie-breaks
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Bellucci has not played since the US Open 6 months ago.
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Estrella has beaten Bellucci here 3 years in a row, on route to winning the title each year also.
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Their last h2h match only lasted two sets but yielded 18 break point opportunities.
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Simona Halep (Romania) v Caroline Wozniacki (Denmark) - Australian Open Women's Final, 8.30 am UK time, 27th January 2018:
If you saw the picture for this post it has some vague relevance that I will get to later on. If not and you are attracted to women then it may be worth checking out on the blog homepage!
The battle for the first major of the year and the world number 1 ranking comes down to this. A potential classic is in store for us here and I will go through my trading notes with you so you can potentially have an edge on the market.
First a bit of background on the players -
Halep - Possibly the toughest fighter on the WTA tour, what she lacks in size she more than makes up for in relentless precise aggression. Halep famously had breast reduction surgery (see the picture on blog page), that is serious commitment! She has saved 5 match points in two different matches to get here, it is safe to say she does not give up easily. A better returner than server, her serve is usually broken a few times per match. She is world number 1 for now.
Wozniacki - Heavy topspin and a great wingspan allow Woz to dominate against weaker hitters and short balls. He consistency have improved hugely in recent times and she now has a chance for the world number 1 ranking. This was hard to imagine a couple of years ago when she was shafted by Rory McIlroy and her career took a severe nosedive.
Odds vs my odds - Official Betfair exchange current odds are 1.72 Halep and 2.36 Wozniacki. My odds have these prices reversed with Wozniacki favourite around 1.8. What is for sure is that this match could be a very close call decided by a couple of key points here and there.
Trading Notes:
Both players are layable a set and a break up, short odds will lead to little risk and 3 of their last four matches have gone the distance (3 set matches). This is almost an automatic lay imo.
Wozniacki has won the last 3 head to head matches vs Halep, this is a surprising stat but shows she is able to dominate a lot with her deep heavy topspin and height advantage.
Halep has had a much tougher run to the final, beating an impressive Kerber along the way, this is probably why she is favourite but Woz has beaten what was put in front of her very easily since the 2nd round.
Lay first set winner is inplay here especially if Halep wins it and serves first in the second set.
These two break each other for fun, don't back the player who is about to serve as you will be better waiting to see if they hold or not.
40-0 , 40-15 lead on serve does not equal auto hold for these guys, one piece of momentum during a game can lead to a flurry of points won by the same player.
A big lead in the third set has not been layable but nerves may play a part here, watch to see if the leader gets tight.
Watch the depth of hitting, if Woz is hitting heavy topspin with great depth and consistancy she will win. If Halep is hitting short service line distance shots she will be in big trouble.
Halep need to be the aggressor just as much as Woz is. If she is retrieving most points she will be in trouble.
Use this information and watch what is happening in front of you and you should make good money trading this match. -
@martin-futter said in Martin's Tennis Trading Notes:
Will be posting a preview of the Australian Open after the draw is made next week
here it is! Tennis is back!
This is one of my favourite tournaments of the year as it is the first serious one since the end of last season. Due to the break the players have had and the injury status of many of the top Mens players last year, there are a lot of unknowns here and this is one of the least predicatable tournaments of the season as a result. It may seem like an obvious pick now but who could have predicted a Federer v Nadal final last year? Their dynasties appeared to be over but have been reignited due to their incredible seasons sharing the four slams equally, an amazing feat for two players who had a combined age of over 65!
Who is in form to make a push?
So this year we have a lot to look forward to with many up and coming youngsters making an impact last season outside of the grand slams. In particular Alex Zverev (odds 20.0) who showed he could match the best in best of three sets tennis and may be Grand Slam ready this year.
There was also the fulfilled promise of David Goffin (odds 20.0) and perhaps less so Grigor Dimitrov (odds 13.0), two players with big potential this year. Dimi in particuar was expected to be a future world No. 1 but that has never really materialised but at 26 now is the time, if he is ever going to do it, to really jump into the elite players in grand slams.
A less well documented story was the comeback of Juan Martin Del Potro (odds 22.0), a former US Open Grand Slam champion less we forget. The injury plagued Argentine talent finished the year in great form and comes into Australia as a real dark horse to have a big year if (and it's a big if!) he can stay healthy.
Thinking of Australia, what about Nick Kyrgios (odds 20.0), loaded with talent and playing at home, can the modern day John McEnroe finally get his head together and go close in a Grand Slam?
Well the five players mentioned above would be my dark horses for this tournament and all at fairly big odds too. However, I will narrow it down a bit for those who want to have minimal liabilities for better gains if it does go to plan. Here are my opinions of the main contenders.
Roger Federer (odds 3.0) - I can't back a guy at 3.0 this early in the season, even Sir Roger! He looked tired at the O2 and at 36 I have to think he will slow down at some point. A worthy favourite here but odds like this rarely entice me in such large fields.
Rafa Nadal (odds 6.0) - Pulled out of O2 with a knee problem and after last year I am not sure he is really fit for this.
Novak Djokovic (odds 8.4) - The real wildcard of the draw, not played a competitive match since Wimbledon, looked OK vs Thiem yesterday but a Grand Slam is a very different beast to an exhibition match.
Grigor Dimitrov (odds 13.0) - Definitely a player I like here, I just wonder how much winning the ATP tour finals would have taken out of him emotionally. If he looks strong early on then this price could be great, I was hoping for near 20 though.
Alex Zverev (odds 20.0) - The world number 4 has yet to prove himself in Grand Slams but took Nadal to five sets here last year. I like these odds and would have priced him nearer the Dimitrov odds myself. This is definitely one for me to take here, Djokovic in his quarter is not ideal but there is no reason he cannot win that match and hopefully his odds would have shortened considerably by that point anyway.
Nick Kyrgios (odds 20.0) - Like Zverev the draw has not been kind to him but if there was one player I think could really upset the apple cart over the next two weeks it is Kyrgios. Yes I accept he could get knocked out early because he throws a tantrum. Make no mistake this guy is a great talent and I have it on good authority that he is now working with a close friend, which one can only hope will lead to some mental stability. Playing at home and winning last week (beating the inform Dimitrov in the process) means that all the signs are pointing in the right direction here and at the price he has to be worth a go.
David Goffin (odds 20.0) - Has clearly shown at the O2 that he can match it with the best, again I wonder if he will be tired here and that's why he isn't quite a good enough pick to make my narrowed down list.
Juan Martin Del Potro (odds 22.0) - He has Grand Slam pedigree and finished the year very well. I like this price but his form here over the years is not great, I liked him as part of my five dark horses but on the narrowed down version he doesn't quite make the cut.
So for me Alex Zverev and Nick Kyrgios are the clear value prices for this tournament. Obviously, use sensible stakes if you do follow as this is the first main tournament of the season and as I said before this one can be very unpredictable. Plus at odds of 20+ you don't need to stake a big amount to make a great return. Also, take a good look at Dimitrov, Del Potro and Goffin as the best of the rest of the outsiders.
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