Martin's Tennis Trading Notes
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@ryan-carruthers said in Martin's Tennis Trading Notes:
@damon-heslop He's a traders dream isn't he!
Certainly is. I always scour the draws to find out when he's playing. Thing is, when he's got his head on he's a very good player, but his attitude is so, so wayward. I've seen him stage some remarkable come-backs, but just as many mug-fests!
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@damon-heslop He's a traders dream isn't he!
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@martin-futter said in Martin's Tennis Trading Notes:
@martin-futter said in Martin's Tennis Trading Notes:
15th February -
ATP Buenos Aires Match Preview
Fabio Fognini v Leo Mayer:
Betfair odds Fognini 1.67
Martin's odds Fognini 1.8Trading Notes:
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Fognini has lost his last 4 matches here
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Mayer has won 6 in a row on clay
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Fognini leads head to head 3-0 but they have not played in 4 years
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Fognini has not played since two tough 5 set matches in the Davis Cup he has not played on clay in 6 months.
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Mayer is playing at home so should be motivated.
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Fognini's matches often swing a lot in price, he is a very hot and cold player during matches.
This could be a good trading match. Mayer looks the value to have the quicker start in the first set but if Fognini does win the first set he would be a lay at very short odds (1.2 or below).
Nice green there on Mayer! Won in straight sets
It was a typical Fognini display. Breaks first... then falls apart! I love him.
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16th Feb
Buenos Aires Quarter-Finals:
4 Argentinians in the quarter-finals here, make a note of that for next year!
Mayer v Monfils
Betfair odds Mayer 2.8
Martin's odds Mayer 2.5Mayer now has a 7 match win streak on clay and is playing at home
Monfils may be settling into this South American clay now after two wins since losing to world number 117 last week.Lay first set winner looks a strong play here especially if it is Monfils (will be very low risk at short lay odds). Monfils loves a battle and can often create one where he could win easily. Mayer looks motivated after thrashing Fognini yesterday. If Monfils has an off day Mayer could win this easy but it is more likely that a battle ensues here.
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@martin-futter said in Martin's Tennis Trading Notes:
15th February -
ATP Buenos Aires Match Preview
Fabio Fognini v Leo Mayer:
Betfair odds Fognini 1.67
Martin's odds Fognini 1.8Trading Notes:
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Fognini has lost his last 4 matches here
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Mayer has won 6 in a row on clay
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Fognini leads head to head 3-0 but they have not played in 4 years
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Fognini has not played since two tough 5 set matches in the Davis Cup he has not played on clay in 6 months.
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Mayer is playing at home so should be motivated.
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Fognini's matches often swing a lot in price, he is a very hot and cold player during matches.
This could be a good trading match. Mayer looks the value to have the quicker start in the first set but if Fognini does win the first set he would be a lay at very short odds (1.2 or below).
Nice green there on Mayer! Won in straight sets
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15th February -
ATP Buenos Aires Match Preview
Fabio Fognini v Leo Mayer:
Betfair odds Fognini 1.67
Martin's odds Fognini 1.8Trading Notes:
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Fognini has lost his last 4 matches here
-
Mayer has won 6 in a row on clay
-
Fognini leads head to head 3-0 but they have not played in 4 years
-
Fognini has not played since two tough 5 set matches in the Davis Cup he has not played on clay in 6 months.
-
Mayer is playing at home so should be motivated.
-
Fognini's matches often swing a lot in price, he is a very hot and cold player during matches.
This could be a good trading match. Mayer looks the value to have the quicker start in the first set but if Fognini does win the first set he would be a lay at very short odds (1.2 or below).
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ATP Buenos Aires -
Fernando Verdasco v Guido Pella
Betfair odds: Verdasco 1.75
Martin's odds: Verdasco 1.5This stands out as a lay first set winner to me.
Pella has gone the distance in his last 5 matches here, he will want to win at home and will fight hard to comeback if behind.
Verdasco could blow Pella away, however if he wins the first set his price will be very cheap to lay anyway so not big liability. -
Nice winner yesterday, albeit a bit fortunate! We managed to get great lay at odds after the first set too.
We have an all French final in Montpellier so well done to whoever followed my advice to back the Frenchies this week, they just love it here.
Surprise final in Sofia - Copil v Basic!
Nothing stands out to me today will have a look at the next tournaments starting tomorrow.
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Looked fine to me. One minute he’s serving for the match. Gets broken, then Pouille hit 1.01. Bizarre, but most welcome. The green, that is. Not his injury...
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Tsonga retires! Boooom!
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@damon-heslop said in Martin's Tennis Trading Notes:
Small lay of Tsonga at 1.2, just in case Pouille actually decides to play in the second set.
He hasn't. Lol.
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Small lay of Tsonga at 1.2, just in case Pouille actually decides to play in the second set.
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Yes, I think, in future, I'll watch the two service games first!
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ATP Montpellier -
Jo Wilfried Tsonga v Lucas Pouille
Betfair odds Pouille 2.2, Martin's odds Pouille 1.8
I have Pouille favourite here in a close match up.
Pouille is the future of French tennis currently.
Tsonga has not done anything of great note for a long while.
Tsonga cannot be totally written off here though as he can turn up and look like a top 4 player on any given day but he is too inconsistent in general.
Pouille won their last match on indoor hard 6-1 6-4
If Pouille looks fully fit as he has done so far this week, he is back-able here given the price. -
@martin-futter said in Martin's Tennis Trading Notes:
ATP is back!
Montpellier - France
In all seven years this tournament has existed a Frenchman has won it or made the final, expect them to come strong again this week!
Made a fair bit of money backing the Frenchies this week! 3/4 of the semi-finalists are French and the other one is Belgian (so not far off!) Hope a few saw this advice!
