New (again) Member - Lee
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@lee-woodman said in New (again) Member - Lee:
@bottlabroon Yes, thats exactly it. I have a few filters but all get put together as 'SH goals'. That usually means they are good for a SH goal, a goal after 60/70/80' so all i need to do is decide in-play. I do analyse the stats to see which figures are important and which dont matter so much in creating the initial filters but after that its down to reading the game and situation and seeing whats happening. Lumping them altogether also removes conflict of strategies. You dont want 3 different trades on the same game because if they all lose its a big hit
This conversation today is a bit of an eye opener to me. I am often in the position where a game falls into a number of strategies which I kind of prefer than a game that is only on one filter although I never know what strategy to employ half the time.
Simplification is a popular term where I work and it needs to apply to trading also
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@bottlabroon Yes, thats exactly it. I have a few filters but all get put together as 'SH goals'. That usually means they are good for a SH goal, a goal after 60/70/80' so all i need to do is decide in-play. I do analyse the stats to see which figures are important and which dont matter so much in creating the initial filters but after that its down to reading the game and situation and seeing whats happening. Lumping them altogether also removes conflict of strategies. You dont want 3 different trades on the same game because if they all lose its a big hit
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@lee-woodman said in New (again) Member - Lee:
I was constantly thinking of strategies for O1.5, O2.5, 2 SH goals, LCS, FH goals but in reality theyre all much of a muchness and its over complicating the simple nature of trading.
Love this bit Lee as it's exactly where I came from a few years ago. I had filters for FH goals, filters for 2 SH goals, filters for late goals, filters for over 2.5 and over 3.5, filters for 3 goal correct score trades and 4 goal correct score trades.
It was nonsense as most lists would contain the same matches and I was left scratching my head which of the strategies to play. Now they all get lumped into the same master list as 'goals trades' and I'll vary the strategy depending on when I decide to enter the trade and where the liquidity is. There was no point allocating say a Serbian match in a correct score strategy when there was £3.25 and a polo mint in the CS market!
What it did for me was allow me to concentrate on the IP and pick and choose my entry time when I thought a goal was looking likely, it was that flexibility that took my trading to the next level.
Good luck with it, you're obviously on the right lines
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love it
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@ryan-carruthers Sorry mate, couldn’t resist as a United fan!
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@darri Cheers Darri, got to drill down into making a habit which is second nature now but I’m bought into the process which is usual the hard lest part for me. Lots of lessons to learn but lots already learnt
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@ben-dobie Cheers Ben. Definitely a long way to go and it’s a massive learning curve for sure!
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@lee-woodman Ooooooo Lee you cold cold cruel man! My hero Stevie G lol
Just like John Terry missing the pen isnt it! Means everything to them, they then let their side down.
Agreed, it's why reading, taking notes around your sport helps - I'm a real student of the game when it comes to the sports I trade.
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@lee-woodman top post mate
looks like you have had the same lightbulb moment i had about trading with regards to focussing on one thing. I saw your post on the football thread too looks like your well on your way to the right mindset and process of trading. The more people we have on here doing this way of trading the better as the process your going through with trading each game on its own merits and the way your filtering out the bad trades are what separates most traders from the beginning. Keep at it mate, and keep us posted on how your doing -
@ryan-carruthers Yes I agree there’s so much more to it than just the title/relegation/play offs but they’re the easy ones to analyse. There’s a lot of factors, many of which will be unknown. And yes, there are mentally poor teams aswell - some teams often bottle it whilst others have a ‘fighting when backs against the wall’ mentality
And let’s not forget there’s even players who do or don’t let it slip when the title is at stake
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@lee-woodman I like the last few lines, if we are what we repeatedly do.....
How we talk to ourselves is so key isn't it?
I hear people say 'I'm so clumsy' well if you stopped telling yourself that you might be less clumsy?
Excellent write up here, few things really stuck out for me....
Keep trading simple! I've said for years trading can be as easy or as complicated as you want it to be, it's always down the to trader!
Motivation - key key key! You are always more invested in something when there's something at stake, although somebody might need to tell Arsenal this!
It does make me think that maybe it's not just about that relegation? That title?
Teams can be weak mentally which plays a role in this too, especially against teams who are up for it.
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@lee-woodman good too see your journey mate, I know what you mean about going around in circles and over complicating things ! Sounds like you know where you’re heading though and that can only be good thing
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Its been a strange couple of months with a fair few frustrations, brain racking and tweaks. Ive read quite a few of the frustrations on the forum and thought how i would suggest that person deals with it - then realised it applies to me too!
A lot of my filter selections come from leagues which are getting close to the end of the season - the 'business end' so i have been putting more emphasis on motivation recently, both pre-game and in-play. I think its the biggest change i have or could have made as its hugely underestimated in trading and football. How many times do we see a team lift their performance 20/30% when in a position of needing a goal, to avoid relegation, to win the league, to beat their rivals to the play-offs? Or to simply scrape a desperately needed point against top of the league? Its often referred to as a 'miracle escape' or whatever but its just psychological and understanding motivation is a big deal. I believe i have become much better at reading the situation and factoring it in
My main focus is laying the correct score. I have decided to put 90% of my focus into improving this....learning how to read games better, pre-game research, dealing with FOMO, understanding value prices etc. I used to think i needed a wider portfolio but i am going to master this primarily. I was constantly thinking of strategies for O1.5, O2.5, 2 SH goals, LCS, FH goals but in reality theyre all much of a muchness and its over complicating the simple nature of trading. In all other areas of my life i will keep things simple and get better at doing things in a simple way, adding in complication as necessary so i need to continue to apply this to my trading. Ive got a few decent filters feeding into my shortlist and then from that i select the best. I have been guilty of doubting myself about which type of trade to go with - do i lay at 60', lay at 70', this price, that price, go for 2 SH goals and let it run, go for 2 SH goals and trade out but ultimately decided just to be more dynamic and decide in-play. So if a game ticks all the boxes at 62' then i may get involved then but likewise i may wait until 75' if it feels like a slower build-up. If a goal comes before my entry point then how does that affect things - is there a momentum shift or do both teams settle at that? Treating each game on its own merits has been beneficial
The other 2 types of trade im running are a split stake filter which has a great SR but theres lot of no trades. This doesnt require much thought or input, not quite set and forget, but close enough. Ive also started one-tick scalping the match odds markets for the last couple of weeks. Its not a new trade (Ryan has a post about it somewhere) but its a different trade altogether and doesnt need me to be monitoring or reading the game. Its quite boring in essence but its low risk and doesnt interfere with anything else.
Despite smacking my head against a wall more than once over the last few months, im happy with where im at, what ive learnt and how ive developed things. Ive definitely gone in circles to get where i am but i always knew it would be like that at times and no expectations of making money for a long time. Im looking forward to starting December and to keep putting things into practice as were getting more winter leagues appearing now. Ive definitely got work to do still but im further along than when i started so have to see that as a positive. Another point i think has helped at times is instead of saying 'im trying to learn to trade' or 'i would kind of like to become a trader' is changing that mindset to more along the lines of 'im going to be a trader'
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@ben-dobie said in New (again) Member - Lee:
I have decided to go in is to put more emphasis on pre match research, I've highlighted a few key stats that I want to look for and decided to record these for every game that comes up. I used it yesterday for the first time and it mad my decision as to whether to get involved in a trade a lot easier. I do like the systematic approach but also want to give myself the best chance of succeeding in every trade and this really helped
Pre-match is something i probably need to do a little more of. Just a quick check of a few points can improve the chances. Again, if you have say 3 filters running and each produces 4 games on a certain day then we need to narrow that down further so this is a good way
That last line has been a massive one for me. I used to HATE trading on a saturday and often a sunday and i never made a profit purely because i had loads of selections and couldnt keep track of them all so whilst i havent got a set rule as such, i think yours is a good rule to have in place
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@lee-woodman Thanks mate, yeah the discussions that get raised from some questions can really turn a light on sometimes, it's what's great about this community.
One direction I have decided to go in is to put more emphasis on pre match research, I've highlighted a few key stats that I want to look for and decided to record these for every game that comes up. I used it yesterday for the first time and it mad my decision as to whether to get involved in a trade a lot easier. I do like the systematic approach but also want to give myself the best chance of succeeding in every trade and this really helped yesterday.
I've also decided I'm not going to trade more than two games at once or more than 4 in a day on weekdays (I know weekends have to be slightly different)
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@ben-dobie Good luck to you too mate. Dont worry about being behind x, y, or z person as its your own path, its unique to you and as long as you are improving your own trading in one way or another and heading in the right direction then thats the most important thing.
I do try to share stuff and help where i can. Sometimes it can simply just help that person, which is great, and sometimes it creates a discussion which is also great as it may validate a particular point im contemplating or someone may challenge it and point out something which wouldnt work. Ive picked up bits here and there from lots of people on here, though obviously you need to be careful what information you absorb
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@lee-woodman I wish you all the luck in the world mate, my aim is very similair I want to be in a position in 18 months where I can say "right I can make a living from this". Whilst I feel like I'm well behind a lot of people on here one thing I know I will do is put the hours in, I can see you're very similair and always seem to be working on something. Some of the ideas you've come up with on here are superb and your filters are obviously performing so I think you're definitely heading in the right direction. I've learned a lot from you the last few months so thank you for sharing your ideas, here's to hoping we are both where we are aiming to get to in the next 12 - 18 months. Good luck mate
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Ive been thinking a lot about trading for the last few weeks; not in the mechanics sense but in the overview, how it fits in for me and where i want to go with it. I stopped trading in October mainly for personal reasons and started again a few months ago. I wasnt actually going to restart but i decided to 'give it a shot'. When i traded previously i did ok but i noticed quite a few flaws and i wasnt really focusing in the right way to improve them. I listed 5 of the main issues above and have only just looked at them again since i wrote them and i can genuinely say i feel ive overcome every one of them to the point that i dont even notice them
Ive decided im going to push forward more and make it my goal (rather than simply a dream or a 'lets see what happens') for this to be my main income in the longer term (say 18-24 months). I have started to try to think longer term and how a pro trader would think. I cant do everything a pro trader would do right now but i can certainly make sure i dont do what they wouldnt do. Everything i do now will be more geared to putting myself into a certain place in 12 months+. At that point i would like to have 3 solid strategies/filters, a good sized database of results & stats to run in the background, a very strong level of discipline, patience, aswell as being in the right position with regards to staking & trading bank. If i was to start studying for a high level new career tomorrow i would have to put in lots of time for no money, pay for courses/resources, i would likely follow some sort of curriculum of development and i would do everything based on what i would be doing when i am trained/qualified.....so all these points are exactly how i intend to be about trading
I am more suited to being a stats-based trader than an instinct type of trader so i need to ensure that i have a great resource of stats and understand how different criteria affects things.
So ive got a lot to work on, a lot to improve but having the goal, the focussed direction and the determination will make it a whole lot easier. I might not make it to where i want to be but i cant let that be because of things i had control over
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@gary-brown Thanks I have used that site a bit but never for whole league stats. Will check it out
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You can also get the info from soccer stats as well as look at overs for any league and go back a couple of seasons as well
