New (again) Member - Lee
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I decided to give it another crack at trading!
I used to trade for about 9 months and i stopped in September mainly for personal reasons (not trading related!). I feel i have enough qualities to give it another go and spent a little time looking at what type of trading fits me best, what my issues were previously and how i would improve my weaknesses and play on my strengths.
Previous issues and improvements:
Overtrading - I plan to stick to 3 strategies only initially. These should compliment each other rather than overlap too much. In the past i had a filter which looked good for 2 or 3 strategies so i would end up trading them all which often ended in a 2 or 3 point loss after a bad 0-0! Also, if i get more than a few selections per day per filter then i will select the best few only. This used to be highlighted when weekends were always running at break-even or a loss because i was trying to spread myself too thinly!
Staking In the past i found something that worked and decided to push the stakes up by 2-3 times but then hit the inevitable variance, which ended up being a disaster instead of a blip. I plan to use 1% of my bank as a stake for most trades or up to 2% liability for any LCS trades
Targets My target really has always been 10pts per month. It sounds modest but if i think of it as 0.33 pts per day then i can start to realise that i dont need loads of trades or heavy stakes. I am going to compound stakes monthly but never increase by more than 10%, hopefully this will protect me if i have a down month. If i manage to increase 10% monthly then in just 2 years i will be on £50 per point and in 3 years compounding really comes good and the amount is £140 per point! Decent numbers which show its a long game!
FOMO Despite many years matched betting (and in life generally) i never really suffered FOMO but in trading i appear to! I see a good selection in the forum and jump on it, or someone posts a filter which works for them and i start to look how to add it.....i dont have an obvious solution for this except to try and understand it and find a way to overcome it. It may be a good filter, but if it becomes one of 27 im using then it just dilutes my attention to my own work
Fuckarounditis I am a methodical and analytical person, i have a generally good understanding of the relevance of certain data. Researching figures and differentiating between purely correlation and actual causative figures is where i can add most value so my trades should be researched and then when the in-play figures hit what i expect (SOT's, corners, direct attacks) then i can get involved, knowing that the game is going how i expected. If its not, i need to leave it alone and simply record the results afterwards
As you can see all my 'issues' are discipline and mentality related. I think trading became a need for me in a monetary sense so i would think 'well if i made 11 points last month, if i just double my stakes then ill make twice as much.....easy right?!' But now its something i dont NEED but would LIKE to develop, improve and succeed at and i want to actually enjoy it rather than feeling like a chore or a stress!
Hopefully i can continue to work on these issues and factors and apply them, if i do then i know i can do ok
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@lee-woodman said in New (again) Member - Lee:
Just want to say a massive thanks for all the supportive messages. Obviously trading is the primary goal of the forum but for people to take time to reply to something non-trading related means a lot!
Only just seen this, so sorry
Truly 2021 can f**k off and get in the bin. Hope you have a better 2022. So much puts other things into perspective and while the pressures I feel are massive, I have my health, only 2 kids to support and hopefully a decent way out.What you must be going through right now I dread to think so, hopefully again, this place can act as a bit of an escape from time to time.
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@lee-woodman No worries its the least we can do for you.
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Just read this, Lee. What an awful situation. I wish you and your family sincerely a deserved better year.
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Just want to say a massive thanks for all the supportive messages. Obviously trading is the primary goal of the forum but for people to take time to reply to something non-trading related means a lot!
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@lee-woodman HI Lee , really sorry to hear your personal news and must be a awful time for you and the family , My thoughts are with you mate
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Very sorry to hear this Lee. Hoping everything works out ok for you and your family.
@lee-woodman said in New (again) Member - Lee:
End of Year summary!
So the full year of trading is done with nothing happening for the next couple of days. Ive been a lot quieter on the forum for the last few months and trading in general has taken much less of a priority. About 6 months ago we found out my partner had a serious illness, then another and 2 days before christmas we found out she likely has a third. I wont go into the details too much but all 3 have figures quoting 5 year survival rates so its pretty heavy stuff! With 4 kids (aged 7-11) between us and spending about 3 of the last 6 months in hospital at various times, its obviously thrown a lot up in the air and left me without a huge amount of time to massively concentrate on trading.
I have still been actively trading though where i can. Actual trading for me doesnt take a huge amount of time, its more the analysis, adjustments, forum interactions and looking for fresh strategies which take up more time. I mentioned a few months ago that i hit a bad patch on one of my SH goal filters and after some decent feedback i decided to halt trading it temporarily. This taught me quite a lesson at the time and i tightened up the criteria in my second filter, dropped the stakes down to just 1% and its just been ticking over nicely since. Its been steadily profitable for the last few months, which has replicated the figures it initially showed from the previous 12 months
My original filter hasnt really improved so ive stopped recording it. Yes there may be something to adjust but to gain any confidence back in it i would have to butcher it, in which case i may aswell start something else with fresh eyes. Variance is a huge thing in trading and its too up and down for my liking
I have been collecting data on my own and ryans split stake for over a year and the figures look good on these so i am slowly going to start adding these to my portfolio of LCS trades. There isnt a huge amount of these which become active trades and i will introduce them using the hindsight we all wish we had when a beginner!
Overall i have learned an absolute load this year. Some of the stuff thats shared on the forum is absolutely fantastic, there are no huge egos or arseholes......just a load of top guys trying to crack the same thing! I feel confident going forward, not only in the strategies i have but in how to lessen the downswings and deal with them as they happen
For this year my main goals will be a bit more general but i hope to
- Continue trading my LCS filter whilst analysing regularly but not playing around with too much.
- Slowly introduce my split stake as a second strategy
- Explore and consider other strategies which may be added to my portfolio at a later date. This will be purely a case of building the filter and downloading the data daily to be analysed at some point in the future - no active trades for well over 6 months
I will probably have spells in and out of the forum but i do enjoy the reading of it and all the stuff that BTC provides, podcasts, youtube videos etc
Happy New Year to you all......heres to a profitable 2022!
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Great write up Lee, its a big thing to ditch a filter you have worked on for so long but sometimes it is the right thing to do.
All the best to you and your partner during this difficult period. Went through something similar with my partner a couple of years back, worked out ok for us in the end, but absolute nightmare to go through it at the time.
Got all my fingers and toes crossed for you.
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@lee-woodman great review mate and its great to hear the mindset progression with trading. I hope 2022 is a year you can compound that bank and of course if you ever need just a chat about trading or anything else thats eating at you just drop one of us a message mate, as you said all just trying to hack this and also life in general
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@lee-woodman All the very best and all strength to you and your partner and of course the kids. With that in mind any achievement in trading - whether its ditching a filter or winning a single point is an achievement of heroic proportions because to have any capacity in your head for anything other than what you've been dealing with is pretty amazing so you have nothing but admiration from me for that. Which makes the insight you've given in your review all the more worthy of thanks, so thank you and all the very best to you and your family.
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@lee-woodman Really sorry to hear about your partner, as others have said I can't even imagine what that is like, well in a way I can, I lost my mum, 5 years ago, unexpectedly through an Illness that I think she had kept hidden from us, but that was very hard.So you have all my best wishes at this time and anything I can do to help, then feel free to ask.
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@lee-woodman Really sorry to hear about your wife, cannot begin to imagine! We are here for you if needed.
Great that you've simplified your trading to a point where it currently is at, long may that continue!
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@lee-woodman Hi Lee, whats FOMO?
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Firstly and more importantly all the best to you, your partner and family at what must be a difficult time.
Interesting write up on the trading side of things I can relate on the learning been a big year for me in that regard also. Also pivoting from a strategy that has worked in the past but is no longer showing the results is something I’ve come to the conclusion is key but at the same time keeping it simple
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End of Year summary!
So the full year of trading is done with nothing happening for the next couple of days. Ive been a lot quieter on the forum for the last few months and trading in general has taken much less of a priority. About 6 months ago we found out my partner had a serious illness, then another and 2 days before christmas we found out she likely has a third. I wont go into the details too much but all 3 have figures quoting 5 year survival rates so its pretty heavy stuff! With 4 kids (aged 7-11) between us and spending about 3 of the last 6 months in hospital at various times, its obviously thrown a lot up in the air and left me without a huge amount of time to massively concentrate on trading.
I have still been actively trading though where i can. Actual trading for me doesnt take a huge amount of time, its more the analysis, adjustments, forum interactions and looking for fresh strategies which take up more time. I mentioned a few months ago that i hit a bad patch on one of my SH goal filters and after some decent feedback i decided to halt trading it temporarily. This taught me quite a lesson at the time and i tightened up the criteria in my second filter, dropped the stakes down to just 1% and its just been ticking over nicely since. Its been steadily profitable for the last few months, which has replicated the figures it initially showed from the previous 12 months
My original filter hasnt really improved so ive stopped recording it. Yes there may be something to adjust but to gain any confidence back in it i would have to butcher it, in which case i may aswell start something else with fresh eyes. Variance is a huge thing in trading and its too up and down for my liking
I have been collecting data on my own and ryans split stake for over a year and the figures look good on these so i am slowly going to start adding these to my portfolio of LCS trades. There isnt a huge amount of these which become active trades and i will introduce them using the hindsight we all wish we had when a beginner!
Overall i have learned an absolute load this year. Some of the stuff thats shared on the forum is absolutely fantastic, there are no huge egos or arseholes......just a load of top guys trying to crack the same thing! I feel confident going forward, not only in the strategies i have but in how to lessen the downswings and deal with them as they happen
For this year my main goals will be a bit more general but i hope to
- Continue trading my LCS filter whilst analysing regularly but not playing around with too much.
- Slowly introduce my split stake as a second strategy
- Explore and consider other strategies which may be added to my portfolio at a later date. This will be purely a case of building the filter and downloading the data daily to be analysed at some point in the future - no active trades for well over 6 months
I will probably have spells in and out of the forum but i do enjoy the reading of it and all the stuff that BTC provides, podcasts, youtube videos etc
Happy New Year to you all......heres to a profitable 2022!
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@darri Thank you for the responses, it’s always infinitely more useful when you get specific info rather than generic. I appreciate you have no obligation to reply or to offer guidance. The questions aren’t intended to come over as defensive or tunnel visioned, it’s maybe just the way I ask them, but the intention is for me to go further than just knowing something but to properly understand it because obviously there’s every chance I’ll hit this issue in future and if I’m filtering leagues incorrectly (or something else) then I want to address that now.
Anyway, thanks again, I’ve got some really good pointers to work on
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@lee-woodman even if you feel there’s nothing to contribute there’s always something to contribute, getting it out of your head has been proven to work anyways.
This was a good in depth write up of the thoughts that we go through when assessing the data and the thoughts we have.
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@lee-woodman not saying that it takes 2-3 seasons before you trade but it takes 2-3 seasons before its cutting out all the bad leagues, in between that time say you have a bad league that crops up more than the good leagues in a bad month then variance smashes you. Its especially true with shg/lcs as the margin for error is tiny. Couple bad losing runs with a bad batch of games guarantees a losing month.
Multiple filters:
No but multiple filters for the same strategy could sway variance. Unlike most strategies where its one set of criteria influencing the whole thing. We then have more control on it. Remember filters are just our way of creating algorithms to find good games. If we have multiple ways of doing that they can at some stages be mistreated and wrong/susceptible to more variance as opposed to one.Testing in background:
Yes but your mind is focused on that other stuff too and its deflecting from your main issue, your current ones arent solid enough. Just focus on the things that need to work before moving onto other tasks. Its like your always caught on that "what if wave". Forget everything else and just focus on making your shg/lcs good.Summary:
I get you want to have an answer for all these questions but until you start to narrow focus even more your gonna keep having the conundrums every month. Your trying to give answers for everything im saying and slightly defensive which is totally fine btw but dont let it be a case of you being tunnel visioned to your own approach. Like you said use this as a chance to learn and deep dive. Dont do what you have said and go there isnt much else i could have done. We both know there is always something we could have, im just trying to help you spot them from an outsiders point of view.Hope it helps bud
