Under 2.5 market
-
@lee-woodman said in Under 2.5 market:
@bottlabroon how do you shortlist which games to trade?
I’m a long term member of another stats site that produces a daily data file updating a master database spreadsheet with a wealth of football data that I can interrogate to formulate my strategies. Sorry if that sounds a bit cryptic but many football traders will know the site I refer to.
My selections on all my strategies are generated automatically from a daily csv update file they supply based on my preset filters. My main filters on under 2.5 are based around teams that historically score few first half goals with plenty of 2nd half goals. That way the overs are usually are favoured in the market but as I’m always out before half time the 2nd half goals don’t impact me. I’m really looking at games that historically are very unlikely to have more than one first half goal, if that goal comes early in the game I try to profit from the fact that it’s unlikely there will be another in the half.
I’m sorry if it appears I’m not being very open on exact filters, it’s just that I’ve not yet got to grips with the BTC data fields so I’m unsure what can be replicated here but I will investigate further.
-
@bottlabroon how do you shortlist which games to trade?
-
Interesting reading this thread in so much as those looking to trade or scalp the unders market seem to be looking for games that won’t have an early goal.
I take the opposite view in my unders trades and only enter AFTER an early goal in the first 15 minutes when the price to lay has crashed in. Only a tiny fraction of the games I shortlist have 2 first half goals and once the match reverts to type the odds start to move back pretty quickly.
Personally I find it less risk with lower liabilities, less time in the market with the odds moving faster and it allows me to trade some games where the starting prices were a little too high for my liking.
Always different ways to tackle the problems we face I guess
-
@matt-wood It depends if i think theres anything to be gained from the data. I can only collect so much. The large one i run gave me the basis for a good LCS filter, so additionally i set the LCS up using the criteria id filtered in excel and kept the original, wider one running as it looked like it could be ok for other 'spin-off' filters, which it has done. I may end up recording a lot of data and may go through 10+ filters but if i end up with 3 solid filter/strategies then it will be worth it
-
@lee-woodman Ahhhh thanks for explaining to a dumbass
Once you had pulled something out of your excel sheet would you then construct a brand new filter around that and leave the wide filter running or just make a new filter to replace the wide one?
-
@matt-wood I export everything to excel then spend some time using the basic filters in excel to see which criteria has an effect and which is likely irrelevant. It takes a couple of hours to play around with the numbers but with the right data set then something can usually be found. I did something similar with a filter looking for goals and ended up with a couple of good filters from it.
Obviously this is only the first step, after that i need to turn a filter into a strategy
-
@lee-woodman said in Under 2.5 market:
@matt-wood It sounds a lot but by the time you add in goals scored, goals conceded, goal times, odds etc it adds up! Especially as some of the stats will be 'hidden gems' rather than simply 'low FH goals = good filter'. There will be some criteria or combination that works well
Ive set the odds in the range of 2.0-3.0 and then various criteria, ill do some filtering in a few months and see how it goes!
Sorry for being dim, still learning how to get the best out of the filter software, If you have 20 criteria how would you know if there were some 'hidden gems'? For example how would you figure out that criteria 3, 9 and 14 were a sgnificant combo in the midst of 20?
-
@matthew-biggins I think thats the premise of it really, in that the market expects goals so the unders should be over 2.0 in order to actually see some movement but you are going against the market!
-
@matt-wood It sounds a lot but by the time you add in goals scored, goals conceded, goal times, odds etc it adds up! Especially as some of the stats will be 'hidden gems' rather than simply 'low FH goals = good filter'. There will be some criteria or combination that works well
Ive set the odds in the range of 2.0-3.0 and then various criteria, ill do some filtering in a few months and see how it goes!
-
@matt-wood I find with odds anything under 2 and the market doesn’t move enough in the opening 15/20 mins.
I think it’s one where you’ve really got to be brave in going against the market sometimes.
-
@lee-woodman 20?!!!
I think the issue is we are trying to find contradictory outcomes from the filter which could just result in no games appearing. I have to think it is possible though.
My cut off for odds last time I tried was 1.9, maybe I should have gone up to 2
-
@matt-wood Yes im looking really for games that are expected to be over 2.5 goals as i want the Unders to be priced at 2.0 at least, to allow for significant time decay. Conversely though the games should be slow starters, ie very low chance of a goal in 0-20'. Basically i'm looking for a disproportionate balance. Its actually quite hard to narrow it down to just 20 criteria!
-
@lee-woodman For the wide filter you want, could start with high 0-0 at HT see how many games it catches and what the success rate is with those?
-
@lee-woodman I wish I could give you a nice easy answer mate
The problem I seemed to have is there is not any one particular criteria, at least that I could identify, that carries significant weight.
I have currently started this up again with two ideas. The first being to find teams that have a high rate of 0-0 at HT and a very low rate of FHG, given my failure with FHG markets this should work . Combined this with high under 2.5 FT.The second is to findslow starters so I have chained together the first 30mins goal times looking for 0 total goals there.
I think success with this may come down to finding the 'right' combination of criteria rather than building the filter around one in particular.
-
@matt-wood Im interested to see how you get on with this. Im trying to put together a wide filter for U2.5 so i can start to collect data and analyse in a few months. Ive done similar for goal markets so hoping to find some joy in unders
Are there any particular criteria which seem to have a greater effect than others? For example in LCS or O1.5 i find that 'scored by ft' and 'overall average goals' to be 2 of the best stats.....just wondering if you had identified any such criteria in your data?
-
@matthew-biggins Yep not fun to watch at all
I used to watch the start of the game and at every multiple of 3mins I would decide to 'get out' if the action looked too much. Used to try for 10% of the stake and cashout or out by 15mins max.
-
@matt-wood yeah think I’m of the same mindset. There has to be something in it.
It seems to happen really often where the o2.5 market is way over-priced, especially in big games where the market expect goals but teams end up cancelling each other out early on.
I used to try it a lot in finals and semi-finals or just generally games with a lot riding on them. They’re always the ones that seem to start with both teams sizing each other up.
Yeah it’s one where I’d prefer to just not watch the live pictures but I think it’s kind of important with this strat. If it starts fast I don’t wanna stick around for very long haha.
-
@matthew-biggins Well I would be interested to see how you get on with it. Like I said I will return to it at some point since I do believe there is a steady little earner to be had here.
I used to reback U2.5 after an early goal and catch the over reaction in the market then wait about 5mins and cashout. Very stressful though
-
@matthew-biggins said in Under 2.5 market:
@matt-wood I’m going to start by monitoring how it performs by taking liability of at sepearate time incriments. Ideally I’d like to have all the liability off by 15 minutes and greened up by 20.
If a goal comes I think I’ll just take the red. In the past when I wasn’t taking it as seriously I used to re-lay u3.5 but then if a second goal comes it really isn’t worth the red in both markets.
It’s literally brand new mate so I’m being quite open minded with it. Might turn out that it ends up being better scalping it. I’ve been thinking about starting my own thread to track my trading so I might track it as part of that if I decide to do it. Not sure how interesting it will be but like others have said, it holds me accountable if I do anything stupid haha.
Should add to this that I’m looking for a starting price of evens or above at KO
-
@matt-wood I’m going to start by monitoring how it performs by taking liability of at sepearate time incriments. Ideally I’d like to have all the liability off by 15 minutes and greened up by 20.
If a goal comes I think I’ll just take the red. In the past when I wasn’t taking it as seriously I used to re-lay u3.5 but then if a second goal comes it really isn’t worth the red in both markets.
It’s literally brand new mate so I’m being quite open minded with it. Might turn out that it ends up being better scalping it. I’ve been thinking about starting my own thread to track my trading so I might track it as part of that if I decide to do it. Not sure how interesting it will be but like others have said, it holds me accountable if I do anything stupid haha.
