Keith Anderson's HT LTD
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@douglas-grant said in Keith Anderson's HT LTD:
@keith-anderson cheers. how long you been doing it?
Probably about two years now!
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@keith-anderson cheers. how long you been doing it?
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@douglas-grant said in Keith Anderson's HT LTD:
What if there is no goal? I take it we let it ride to the end?
I do, quite a few late goals too.
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What if there is no goal? I take it we let it ride to the end?
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@james-heathcote I'd be interested in the stats and return on trading out after the goal, this seems to be waiting for the full goals, it seems to be leaving a lot of exposure in the market.
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Its a cracker matey
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@ryan-carruthers Just noticed your split stake strategy, will be giving that a whirl tonight!!!
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@ryan-carruthers Correct, I tend to look at the in-play stats and make a call, I forget my actual stat filters but it's something along the lines of 90% of games have a goal scored in the 2nd half, with the first half stats to hand as well, with a fairly limited sample size of just over 150 matches only 12 have not produced 2 or more goals so far, it would be higher but prices around 1.2 I'm waiting for it to rise such as PSG v Bordeaux, everything said I should back the over 1.5 was I correct to leave it, even though I worked out the probability was more like 95%
I trade out almost immediately when I've LTD at HT and for the unders I'm sticking to trading out around 25-40 minute
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@james-heathcote
Ok, so if there is a goal you don't trade out? You access the stats and keep going to get both goals in to effectively get fully over 1.5?
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Hi @Ryan-Carruthers
I look to hit 1.4 for over 1.5 goals, if a goal is scored prior to that tough titty and move on, thinking maybe when I'm more used to everything might look to open another market rather than just bin it. I keep an eye on it in case it goes 1-1 first half.
Nil Nil at half time I look at the in play stats and make a judgement call to either cut my losses or stick with, at this point I look to lay the draw, and look to get on that at around 3 or under.
1 FHG stick with, 2FHG sorted, look to LTD if 1-1; If it's 2 nil just take the O1.5 profit and move on.
I was trading out on Saturday when 0-0 but when I have a bigger sample size I will be able to see if this strategy is costing more than it's saving.
Thanks for your help, (I hope that makes sense!), criticism very much appreciated because I don't want to get into bad habits from the start.
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@james-heathcote
Let's have a look at this and break it down shall we. Whats the plan with the selections?
I.e. entry/exit etc....
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Had my 1st weekend of full fixtures, with the numerous mistakes I made trying bet angel for the 1st time, plus the footy Gods being against me, (disallowed goals, 3 missed pennos and equilisers before you could cash out + teams absolutely battering the opposition with no result!) I can just about afford a cup o tea and a bacon sarnie!!
At the minute I am just doing the daily unders, I've got my own over 1.5 filter which kind of mirrors Keiths LTD filter, am I making a mistake only coming in at 1.4 odds, or should I do everything as long as the probability is higher than the odds offered? (Only do Brazil, Arg MLS, Aussie, Japan and Europe main leagues and div 2 on some).
Any help you can offer will be hugely appreciated.
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@james-willson only problem I can see with this is if the dog scores you may end up with a small loss or scratch trade as the market would expect the favourite to come back with at least over half the game to go, whereas laying the draw at half time negates this to a degree as there is less time for a comeback. So although the risk may be the same, the chances of just the fave scoring are slimmer than either team scoring.
In this instance I’d lay the draw in the HT market, or lay current score in the HT market. Lots of ways to skin this cat I’m sure
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@james-willson said in Keith Anderson's HT LTD:
I noticed that, so i made my own filter aiming at ltd @ k.o. fair you get better odds at half time but if theyre 3.5 - 5 prior to ko and the chance of a 1st half goal is high, similar risk.
I like laying the draw in the 2nd half as time and odd decay become more valuable as the time goes on. The later the goal is scored, less chance of an equalizer = better price.
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I noticed that, so i made my own filter aiming at ltd @ k.o. fair you get better odds at half time but if theyre 3.5 - 5 prior to ko and the chance of a 1st half goal is high, similar risk.
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@james-willson said in Keith Anderson's HT LTD:
@keith-anderson same principle as with the ht lay the draw. but look for games where there is a high chance of fav scoring in the first half.
Most of the games on the filter do have a high chance of a goal in the first half. It is something I'm looking into though
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@keith-anderson same principle as with the ht lay the draw. but look for games where there is a high chance of fav scoring in the first half.
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Thanks Keith.
