My Trading diary
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Well done to your daughter.
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Since the change of style of trading and cutting out a lot of trades I have had 4 matches come up on the adapted Ltd of Stuarts.
I am laying between the odds of 3.55 -4.1. I however made a mistake and layed the draw in the Sligo game today. (odds of 3.45). It ended up a draw and I should not have been on it. I made the trade at half time in the Ireland v Wales game in the womens 6 nations (my daughter was playing for Ireland) and was done without really thinking.
As well as laying the draw in these games I am backing under 2.5 goals using the same filter.
Friday night
Metz Lille 0.98(LTD) 0.6 (U2.5) Total 1.58Today
Strasbourg Paris SG 0.98 - 0.47 Total 0.51
Parma AC Milan 0.98 -0.5 Total 0.48
Sligo Rovers Shamrock Rovers -2.45 0.4 Total -2.05I had 2 trades in LCS at half time
Metz and wolves games 1.02 and 1.03 in those games
Total 2.57 points green
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Yes mate was going really well there but just felt I was doing too much. With Stuart’s ltd and my Ht LTd I had too much liability in the mornings also. Cutting back will ease the pressure.@chris-osborne said in My Trading diary:
@eamonn-hogan in the long run it’s probably better to make changes when things are going well rather than getting complacent and wandering what’s going on if you hit a down swing
I’m with you on Stuart’s ltd strategy, I don’t look at anything with odds above 5 because of the liability being too high. Those between 4 and 5 I will place the trade at 3.9 and if it doesn’t get matched then so be it. I will p,ace anything below 4 as it is.
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@eamonn-hogan in the long run it’s probably better to make changes when things are going well rather than getting complacent and wandering what’s going on if you hit a down swing
I’m with you on Stuart’s ltd strategy, I don’t look at anything with odds above 5 because of the liability being too high. Those between 4 and 5 I will place the trade at 3.9 and if it doesn’t get matched then so be it. I will p,ace anything below 4 as it is.
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@eamonn-hogan Great to hear mate, never a problem and always happy to help (if i can) you keep rolling on with these bank gains you have currently and you will do just fine. I havent told you how to trade only advised and anything that works/is profitable from here is your own hard work mate. Lets just nail these couple of strategies and once we have them nailed and consistent then maybe try tackle another old or new strategy. You know how to trade most people just need to ask those questions to get that confidence, i did too. From here its just about repeating the same good process of each strategy so that it becomes the norm and then manage our mental side too. Thats all trading is at its core, good decisions and good discipline. Looking forward to more updates on here
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A couple of days losses and after speaking to Darri I have decided that I needed to sort out my spreadsheet to show points rather than pounds.
I will now be trading Stuarts Ltd strategy within the odds range of 3.55 to 4.1 as I have found that that is the sweet spot from the trades that I have been tracking.
I am going to abandon my scalping of the unders trades as they are too high risk for the reward.
My First half LTD has also gone as liquidity would become a problem as the bank grows.
I am solely going to concentrate on the set and forget of Stuarts in the odds mentioned and also the backing of another goal inplay.
Darri has been really helpful to me in the past and more so this evening. I want to publicly thank him for taking the time to look at my spreadsheets and offer advise and answer multiple questions I threw at him.
"LESS IS MORE"
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Tuesday 6/4 selections
LTD
Serbia Super Liga 06/04/2021 17:00 Sabac MladostDutch HT scores
Serbia Super Liga 06/04/2021 17:00 Proleter CukarickiLTD HT market
Northern Ireland Nifl Premiership 06/04/2021 19:45 Portadown Larne -
Tomorrows selections
LTD HT market
Turkey Super Lig 05/04/2021 17:00 Fenerbahce Denizlispor -1.9
Russia Premier League 05/04/2021 17:00 Zenit Petersburg FK Chimki Moskovska oblast 0.98LTD
Portugal Primeira Liga 05/04/2021 18:45 SC Farense Braga 0.98
Portugal Primeira Liga 05/04/2021 21:00 Moreirense Sporting currently 0-1 after 48 minutesDutch HT
England Championship 05/04/2021 15:00 Stoke City Millwall -1
England Championship 05/04/2021 15:00 Nottingham QPR 0.26
England Championship 05/04/2021 15:00 Swansea Preston 0.33
England Championship 05/04/2021 17:30 Sheffield Wed Cardiff -10.37 red if sporting win
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Didnt take it harshly at all mate, I know what you meant.
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@eamonn-hogan no no bud, like i said in the post, i wasnt specifically saying anything towards your trading, more generally, was just mentioning it to those reading this that it took a few years for the build up in that strategy so its a slow builder. People when things are slow to build up might over stake etc we have all been there even me. Iv seen its hit a sticky patch these past 2 days. It will bounce, but might take a while etc to come back round. Over the years iv found some strategies like that and its requires a high discipline when its such a long term strategy which can have losing months. I dont trade it and actually realise it sounded like i was defending it
sorry bud, 'go away and test' sounds harsh was 100% not what i meant it to sound like -
Half time Market LTD
Netherlands Eredivisie 04/04/2021 13:30 PSV Heracles 1
Netherlands Eredivisie 04/04/2021 15:45 Heerenveen Ajax -2
Hungary Otp Bank Liga 04/04/2021 16:00 Budafoki Ferencvaros -2LTD FT
Japan J2 League 04/04/2021 5:00 Okayama Iwata 1
England Premier League 04/04/2021 14:05 Newcastle Utd Tottenham -3.1
Russia Premier League 04/04/2021 17:00 FK Rostov Spartak Moscow 1
Turkey Super Lig 04/04/2021 17:00 Kasimpasa Besiktas 1Dutch HT scores
Russia Premier League 04/04/2021 12:00 Ural Arsenal Tula 0.39
Belgium Jupiler League 04/04/2021 19:45 Charleroi Mouscron 0.43LCS/lTD
Hungary Otp Bank Liga 04/04/2021 16:00 Budafoki Ferencvaros 0.5
Turkey Super Lig 04/04/2021 17:00 Kasimpasa Besiktas -1.6I have a lay of Matt Wallace on the golf to bring back a few points.
5.39 points made on the golf
New total for day: 2.01 points green. -
@darri said in My Trading diary:
@eamonn-hogan said in My Trading diary:
I have been using 1 point on LTD up to 4.4 , anything between 4.5 and 6 is 0.5 points.
That sounds sensible, remember the thing with stuarts trades is actually your morning outlay is quite a lot. These arent inplay type trades where you decide if the game is performing to expectation. Here you kind of hope the away team takes the lead to feel safe. So example if he has 6 games on the list at 5.0 and your risking to win 1pt (whatever points your using) your risking 24% in one go. Compared to say your normal inplay trades which you hand select based on how the inplay is going your rarely risking that much all day. It appears a defensive tactic but its aggressive and while that suits me fine might not suit those who arent used to those swings of p/l, very similar to my SHG data only trades. Nothing wrong with reducing the wins to 0.5pts until you feel confident in the overall strategy. You wont be missing out if its a good strategy because itll be around for years. Go away and test. This again will be a personal choice type thing. Its the same with any strategy on here. You could lump more stake on ryans splits, keith or my picks etc you dont because of the risk and you dont see the long term profit as in depth as stuarts because of the nature of our trades. Just keep this in mind (not specifically you eamonn, most of these couple of posts are for everyone who has read this this morning)just because something is proven profitable doesnt mean it wont have bad spells and in those times you have to have good staking not just bank wise but mentally. If this goes on 4- losing day can you cope with that etc knowing that maybe in 2-3 months itll rebound. If your questioning 1 day of loss then imagine 3-4. I cant cope with that as combined with my own trades thats too much risk per day, so thats why even tho its a good strategy it wont work for me because it impacts my use of bank on other trades. Doesnt mean im missing out.
Im not questioning it at all Darri, sorry if it came across that way. I have full faith in the strategy and also the half time LTD that I am also using as a set and forget.
I get what you are saying regarding having the 3/4 day losing streak, I have been monitoring the strategy and recording the data for quite a while and I have no doubt that it will bounce back. I am not getting bogged down in daily results as its more weekly/monthly I am tracking.
If I feel that I am feeling he strain mentally then I will lower to 0.5 points for all selections but Im not at that stage yet. -
@eamonn-hogan said in My Trading diary:
I have been using 1 point on LTD up to 4.4 , anything between 4.5 and 6 is 0.5 points.
That sounds sensible, remember the thing with stuarts trades is actually your morning outlay is quite a lot. These arent inplay type trades where you decide if the game is performing to expectation. Here you kind of hope the away team takes the lead to feel safe. So example if he has 6 games on the list at 5.0 and your risking to win 1pt (whatever points your using) your risking 24% in one go. Compared to say your normal inplay trades which you hand select based on how the inplay is going your rarely risking that much all day. It appears a defensive tactic but its aggressive and while that suits me fine might not suit those who arent used to those swings of p/l, very similar to my SHG data only trades. Nothing wrong with reducing the wins to 0.5pts until you feel confident in the overall strategy. You wont be missing out if its a good strategy because itll be around for years. Go away and test. This again will be a personal choice type thing. Its the same with any strategy on here. You could lump more stake on ryans splits, keith or my picks etc you dont because of the risk and you dont see the long term profit as in depth as stuarts because of the nature of our trades. Just keep this in mind (not specifically you eamonn, most of these couple of posts are for everyone who has read this this morning)just because something is proven profitable doesnt mean it wont have bad spells and in those times you have to have good staking not just bank wise but mentally. If this goes on 4- losing day can you cope with that etc knowing that maybe in 2-3 months itll rebound. If your questioning 1 day of loss then imagine 3-4. I cant cope with that as combined with my own trades thats too much risk per day, so thats why even tho its a good strategy it wont work for me because it impacts my use of bank on other trades. Doesnt mean im missing out.
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@eamonn-hogan said in My Trading diary:
Im tempted to just let the strategies take care of themselves and will work out profitable at the end of the week/month but its just annoying to be up 6 points and end down 4.5.
The same thing applies if I had of been down 4 points and I decided to stop for the day and then seen that the next 5/6 trades won I would be even more annoyed.Just like to hear others view on it
Sean answered it almost exactly how i would. You test and prove the strategy works long term and by long term i mean months of trades. The thing with this is the mental fatigue creeps in. Because you end up being a slave to the comp because your then trying to get on every game that pops up. Actually a strategy is only really profitable if you can nip in and out of the strategy. We need days off to make use of the betfair profits we make. What i do is i look at my list regardless if its set and forget and pick and choose the ones i deem most likely. Now different for stuarts because its odds dependant. So for these if your questioning the swings in rewards id say actually your staking too much. Any time we doubt the already proven strategy we tested typically tends to mean we are over eager on them and over staking, iv done this plenty of times in the past, seen something unbroken then be too eager on them. If its successful at winning 1pt itll also be successful at winning 0.5pts. For me i tested stuarts and for me the liability was too much when i also add in my other trades. If i was gonna do them id risk to win 0.5pts between the sweet spots lay odds that people have found for them.
As for stopping when up or down. I dont do this, because each strategy will have variance regardless of what games you pick and choose. For example southampton played burnley today it was 3-2 probably predicted less goals? Imagine you didnt trade that because because you where already up/down for today yet that would have been your best value trade. The best way to deal with FOMO is to simply select the games you like, add them to flashscores/list sites, set alarms or reminders of when your needed and dont look at any other games. Chasing is a form of FOMO in my opinion and the need to always be making points each day is another false misinformed method. Just get your games that youll be able to trade for that day set them and then let them run their course. If your strategy is good enough it wont matter how many you trade per day as long as they are well executed. Its what that p/l sheet says after 3-4 months that matters.
Managing time is my aim for 2021 and finding set and forgets to compliment my main trades. For me if my set and forgets variance isnt good enough for me not to have to trade absolutely every game then its simply not a good enough edge. I need to be able to plan my days. We have seen the stories of other members recently how badly this can become more of an addiction rather than a business investment. Treat it carefully so it doesnt affect you. Iv had plenty of too focussed on trading times and it messed with me mentally. Manage yourself well and your strategies the same and everything works in a well efficient way. Trade within your time periods you set each day and dont force anything outside of it.
How many times do you here the guys who have found success talk about the mental aspect all the time. Its very easy to find a profitable strategy there are loads, how you manage yourself and them is the important factor for long term success.
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@darri said in My Trading diary:
@eamonn-hogan said in My Trading diary:
Another question.
Liability for 1 point or lay to win 1 point? whats the views on this?
I think to answer this question there is a couple of parts. Its more about strike rate and odds your getting on. So say we are laying odds of less than evens for our strategy. This is typically when id say that you would favour liability of 1pt. This way the lower the odds the better reward. If your treating every game in the same light on your strategy and odds lower are just a bonus you want to cash in. However, if this strategy is a really low strike rate then long losing runs of losing a point could be harmful. Try to think what the worst level the bank could get with these and then see if you can manage that.
So for me i think laying to win 1pt is the safer more defensive option and for set and forgets is what im currently using even when odds are small. For something like stuarts ltd, what you have to factor in here is strike rate. Over a long period of time and large amount of games this averages a good strike rate. The thing is given the odds the lay to win 1pt here is different and is actually quite aggressive. Your using a fair amount of your bank on a weekend because they are set and forget and you dont want to miss those games. For me iv been looking at testing them to win just 0.5pts as thats a far safer amount of bank used per day. For my SHG trades i use the same staking plan. To win 1pt but max liability is 4pts per trade. Still fairly aggressive, but its the strike rate that takes me through.
So the reason you guys all dont quite know when and where to use the right reward per trade is purely because its personal choice. Are you a defensive trader or aggressive? A defensive trader will look to protect bank so less liability the better, or are you aggressive who relies more purely on strike rates. For me i have almost always been an aggressive trader, using plenty of the bank to not make it wasted just sitting there. So along your way youll find your own way to stake. For me on a very basic level. If im purely laying, id look to lay for liability when its odds under evens, and lay to win 1pt over evens but below 5s. Just think of it as reverse for backing. Id be more inclined to back heavier when odds are lower and be more aware of risk when odds are above evens etc. But like i say its a combo of odds and strike rate as with most things in football trading.
I have been using 1 point on LTD up to 4.4 , anything between 4.5 and 6 is 0.5 points.
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@eamonn-hogan said in My Trading diary:
Another question.
Liability for 1 point or lay to win 1 point? whats the views on this?
I think to answer this question there is a couple of parts. Its more about strike rate and odds your getting on. So say we are laying odds of less than evens for our strategy. This is typically when id say that you would favour liability of 1pt. This way the lower the odds the better reward. If your treating every game in the same light on your strategy and odds lower are just a bonus you want to cash in. However, if this strategy is a really low strike rate then long losing runs of losing a point could be harmful. Try to think what the worst level the bank could get with these and then see if you can manage that.
So for me i think laying to win 1pt is the safer more defensive option and for set and forgets is what im currently using even when odds are small. For something like stuarts ltd, what you have to factor in here is strike rate. Over a long period of time and large amount of games this averages a good strike rate. The thing is given the odds the lay to win 1pt here is different and is actually quite aggressive. Your using a fair amount of your bank on a weekend because they are set and forget and you dont want to miss those games. For me iv been looking at testing them to win just 0.5pts as thats a far safer amount of bank used per day. For my SHG trades i use the same staking plan. To win 1pt but max liability is 4pts per trade. Still fairly aggressive, but its the strike rate that takes me through.
So the reason you guys all dont quite know when and where to use the right reward per trade is purely because its personal choice. Are you a defensive trader or aggressive? A defensive trader will look to protect bank so less liability the better, or are you aggressive who relies more purely on strike rates. For me i have almost always been an aggressive trader, using plenty of the bank to not make it wasted just sitting there. So along your way youll find your own way to stake. For me on a very basic level. If im purely laying, id look to lay for liability when its odds under evens, and lay to win 1pt over evens but below 5s. Just think of it as reverse for backing. Id be more inclined to back heavier when odds are lower and be more aware of risk when odds are above evens etc. But like i say its a combo of odds and strike rate as with most things in football trading.
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@chris-osborne said in My Trading diary:
I ended up breAkeven yesterday which is a result for me on a Saturday. I’m also no longer trading matches where there are no fans there are too many results which make no sense for me enough is enough u til next season.
An issue yesterday was the draws on Stuart’s strategy, which is usually very good but due to the volume of games there were going to be losers at some point. The late goals in Sassuolo and Torino were annoying though.
Yes Chris, the early winners from Stuarts then the late draws punished us. Onwards and upwards.
Glad to hear you broke even mate
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I ended up breAkeven yesterday which is a result for me on a Saturday. I’m also no longer trading matches where there are no fans there are too many results which make no sense for me enough is enough u til next season.
An issue yesterday was the draws on Stuart’s strategy, which is usually very good but due to the volume of games there were going to be losers at some point. The late goals in Sassuolo and Torino were annoying though.
