The BTC Football Trading Thread

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@mark-maguire nothing is ever "too good" it really doesnt matter how good it is as long as its consistent. If you feel you have that and months of proof then by all means keep doing it. If you can avoid mistakes and the variance wont hurt when upping stakes then you dont need to challenge something that is profitable and consistent. Im glad your in the learning phase and doing it correctly by asking questions but if your strat is "too good" just keep going man as i always have said we learn most from a strategy we built ourselves, rather than copying someone elses.

Mistakes happen at first in fact most of time when we have something good we get cocky thats when good mindset comes in and is something most traders are always working on everyday to control. Youll get there as long as you set yourself up well discipline wise. Trading plans and not looking at other score or markets will help. You are in the right place to learn.

Also never apologise for ramblings when your asking questions, or offering discussion i mean have a look at my blog, i write essays for simple one word answers at times its good to see people interested in trading and passionate to learn.

Steve Sandell

@steve-sandell said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

SHG Bologna v Genoa currently 0-0

Goal 1-0 nice and quick

Mark Maguire

Goal 2-1

Mark Maguire

@darri I understand where you are coming from - I don't want this to come across the wrong way but in some ways my concern has been about challenging it because to some extent its been "too" good. Where I have royally messed up on occasion its been about mentality and getting too cocky and not just sticking to the filters because in themselves they've produced consistently. The drill down is about me going back and using this time when I have no overs trades to speak of, and seeing if I can find extra disciplines to add to my list in choosing and narrowing down those trades. I've religously followed the suggestion of paper trading 1000 plus. My filters are about finding games with relatively early goals in the overs market. And in recording the detail I have its thrown up other even simpler ideas in areas like the SHG.

I am the very very first to say its early days but the main thing for me has been not to jump in too early in upping stakes even though my results make it very tempting to do so. I want to understand my Reds because I fully expect a long run of them at some point and haven't yet faced that - I want to understand as much as I possibly can, especially in this period without many games to trade. Probably taken up too much space with my rambling but it comes from a place of wanting to understand and debate.

Steve Sandell

SHG Bologna v Genoa currently 0-0

Richard Latimer

@darri agreed haha

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@richard-latimer agreed but i was not happy that you implying i was flat out dismissing it, so i was correcting you. Stop being so god damn defensive about everything man. Im not attacking you only offering advice to the trader who originally posted asking for advice or takes on his post. Had nothing to do with your post, i was merely saying this kind of strat needs a tight grip before its optimal to add money to. I mentioned you as an example of how you need a tighter grip as high odds laying is a hard game to play, even good runs can be wiped out in 2-3 losses. Which id urge people to be wary of as how big is that edge?

Richard Latimer

@darri said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer please read the post bud, im not saying it wont work only that because of the way the strat goes you need to be even more in depth with leagues etc and have an extremely tight grip on the strat. Also when someone posts something others are also allow to offer their counter or as someone like myself who has done this consistently well for a while now offer advice. Im sure people are interested in what others takes are on strategies, so im just giving my advice and raising a concern that despite your data its still struggling.

Of course. It's just the first time someone has looked in depth at similar things to me and I'm interested in seeing their take on it. That's all. An open, honest and frank discussion is always good and can help us all to learn new things.

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@richard-latimer please read the post bud, im not saying it wont work only that because of the way the strat goes you need to be even more in depth with leagues etc and have an extremely tight grip on the strat. Also when someone posts something others are also allow to offer their counter or as someone like myself who has done this consistently well for a while now offer advice. Im sure people are interested in what others takes are on strategies, so im just giving my advice and raising a concern that despite your data its still struggling. I never flat out say it wont work as i know anything can be tweaked to work. Im also in a position where iv done this full time and would urge people to look for simpler approaches for long term consistency rather than super detailed ones that feed burnout.

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@malcolm-pipes i would urgently recommend you forget using money asap. Go and paper trade for a while. Once you know you can be successful then start to use money. Based on your post id guess your a new trader and need to learn about bank management/mindset/strategies to use. Slow and steady bud dont try to become a profitable trader straight away. That kind of staking will see a quick decline in bank if your not aware of why/what your doing with confidence. Id also encourage not looking at such high odds. I think ryan posts these and never really says what odds to take/good scores etc. But id hazard a guess in that he would avoid that size of odds. Id say follow the btc daily selections first and foremost as martin has done well on building that data and they all have videos on them explaining odds he is looking for and how he would stake etc. Then from there expand as you interact on here.

Richard Latimer

@darri I understand what you're saying but I'm allowed to share my results the same as anyone else. It's another way of looking at it and to completely dismiss without further discussion isn't what this place is about regardless of my own situation

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@mark-maguire honestly i think you are making this way too complicated. Id also raise the fact that despite @Richard-Latimer post showing you his data he is yet to make any consistency in profit as of yet mainly due to higher odds killing any momentum. Focussing on strike rates means nothing if your not using it based on odds. This kind of strat will always be heavily dependant on you having full control of what leagues are good or bad. Basing success on strike rates from a general perspective is good to to test stuff with but odds are when youll know it works or not. We have seen some people struggle with that recently. Try to perhaps find general tweaks rather than making something increasingly more detailed and complex. Look around this forum, the best and most consistent traders do simple things and do them well rather than try to outsmart the markets with subtle tweaks on such fine details.