The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@eamonn-hogan yeah we don't have access to the data, when we do the big back testing update it will be really easy to track that data. I did all that manually originally and there was no way I could keep doing that, not enough time in the world lol
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@chris-osborne one thing i love on a monday is ref watch on sky sports news. Dermot regularly offers an explanation on rules etc which I find interesting. For example the most recent one I learnt was that if a player goes to ground and the ball strikes their arm, if that arm is in contact with the ground for support reasons then it's not handball.
Now I'm not saying none of these latest incidents will be explained away, but sometimes there are parts of rules I don't know, and I like to know things!
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@tomasz-lunarzewski said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson That VAR should never be allowed mate. it destroys the whole game. It doesn't even help in many situations and I personally preferred the referee mistakes. When Maradona scored with hand it was just brilliant, doesn't really ,matter who was angry, the situation brought more laugh than shitty VAR.
After today's VAR debacles at Surs and Newcastle enough is enough, said it before but the LMA and PFA need to join forces and get VAR removed from our game until our incompetant referees know how to use it properly. Things have regressed massively in the past couple of weeks. just look at today
- How was Kane not sent off for the tackle on Robertson in the first half if leg planted thats a broken leg. Cant sent Robertson off and not Kane. Kane's tackle was far worse than Robertson's although both probably deserved red.
- It was a clear penalty for the foul on Jota
- TAA's push on Son should also have been a clear penalty
- Liverpool's second goal was a clear handball by Salah in the build up albeit accidental and should have been disallowed
- Goodness only knpws why Newcastle didn't get a penalty v Man City when Goal Keeper assaulted Fraser.
Five incidents from two games where the clowns running VAR fucked up.
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Is there any reason that the BTC results sheet is not updated anymore. Would be nice to see what the actual strike rate of the current profitable members filters are. They are being sent out each day but no one really knows if they are still profitable or not if they are not being tracked?
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@keith-anderson That VAR should never be allowed mate. it destroys the whole game. It doesn't even help in many situations and I personally preferred the referee mistakes. When Maradona scored with hand it was just brilliant, doesn't really ,matter who was angry, the situation brought more laugh than shitty VAR.
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG):
16:30 - Tottenham v Liverpool
16:30 - Köln v Stuttgart
17:00 - Sampdoria v Venezia
19:45 - Milan v NapoliLay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG): - Results -
16:30 - Tottenham v Liverpool - HT: 1-1 / FT: 2-2
16:30 - Köln v Stuttgart - HT: 0-0 / FT: 1-0
17:00 - Sampdoria v Venezia - HT: 1-0 / FT: 1-1
19:45 - Milan v Napoli - HT: 0-1 / FT: 0-12/4 in the 1.5's
3/4 in the SHG
Done by VAR today. 2 disallowed goals in the Koln v Stuttgart match and a disallowed goal in the Milan v Napoli match. If you get a chance, look at the disallowed goal in the Milan v Napoli match.
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Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG):
16:30 - Tottenham v Liverpool
16:30 - Köln v Stuttgart
17:00 - Sampdoria v Venezia
19:45 - Milan v Napoli -
@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer I remember seeing it somewhere but couldn’t remember where. I guess John’s numerous links is always a good place to start.
If you can't find it just Google longest expected losing streak. There's a few out there.
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@richard-latimer I remember seeing it somewhere but couldn’t remember where. I guess John’s numerous links is always a good place to start.
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@alan-steward fair enough. Right now I am only paper trading and probably overthinking about when to switch to real trading. I know some people say 200 trades, whereas I’m thinking 3 months regardless of number of trades as it’ll give a good mix. That’s another reason for asking about covid because I don’t want say 20% of my paper trades to be irregular.
I look forward to the day it becomes boring!
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward set and forget.
Okay, a study has been done by a top pro which says the following longest losing runs can occur with an 85% strike rate;
Up to 100 trades = 3 consecutive losses
500 to 1500 trades = 4 consecutive losses
2000 to 5000 trades = 5 consecutive lossesThis could be 3 losing trades then 1 winning trade & possibly another 3 losing trades... These figures are just a yard stick showing what could happen in a worse case scenario and possibly worst.
However your main takeaway here is that your selections maintain an 85% strike rate (there or there abouts) once you've completed 100 trades... Don't tinker before that... And top tip... If in doubt PAPER TRADE FIRST
Hopefully this helps
Best of luck and keep up the great work!
This is similar to the table I posted up a while back. I base all my staking off longest expected losing streak for the expected s/r.
Think John Folan has added a link to one of his threads too.
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward that’s perfect! I was actually trying to figure this out the other day. The point you’ve made about when losing streaks occur is really important as results are non-sequential.
Just out of curiosity, when you hit a long winning streak do you do anything to prepare for an inevitable losing streak?
Hi Dan... Nope... Don't change a thing mentally or re game selection after winning streaks... Losing trades/bets will happen, once we get to grips with that trading almost becomes boring
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@alan-steward that’s perfect! I was actually trying to figure this out the other day. The point you’ve made about when losing streaks occur is really important as results are non-sequential.
Just out of curiosity, when you hit a long winning streak do you do anything to prepare for an inevitable losing streak?
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward set and forget.
Okay, a study has been done by a top pro which says the following longest losing runs can occur with an 85% strike rate;
Up to 100 trades = 3 consecutive losses
500 to 1500 trades = 4 consecutive losses
2000 to 5000 trades = 5 consecutive lossesThis could be 3 losing trades then 1 winning trade & possibly another 3 losing trades... These figures are just a yard stick showing what could happen in a worse case scenario and possibly worst.
However your main takeaway here is that your selections maintain an 85% strike rate (there or there abouts) once you've completed 100 trades... Don't tinker before that... And top tip... If in doubt PAPER TRADE FIRST
Hopefully this helps
Best of luck and keep up the great work!
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@alan-steward set and forget.
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@alan-steward I was pretty certain it was variance as I had a 20 game winning streak end with 3 consecutive loses. The strike rate is about 85% so 3 out of 20 is actually bang on!
I’m also hesitant to use the terms “good” or “bad” because even if I have a bad weekend it means someone else is having a good one.
The reason for the post was more to see if there were any irregularities and could we be seeing a potential issue going forward.
@Martin thanks for the video, I’ll keep that in mind when selecting games. Another benefit of only focusing on leagues you have knowledge on.
One more question for you... And I will add team selection/availability of players etc is important but not quite so with set & forget... As long as you can maintain your required strike rate.
...Are these trades/bets set & forget?
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@alan-steward I was pretty certain it was variance as I had a 20 game winning streak end with 3 consecutive loses. The strike rate is about 85% so 3 out of 20 is actually bang on!
I’m also hesitant to use the terms “good” or “bad” because even if I have a bad weekend it means someone else is having a good one.
The reason for the post was more to see if there were any irregularities and could we be seeing a potential issue going forward.
@Martin thanks for the video, I’ll keep that in mind when selecting games. Another benefit of only focusing on leagues you have knowledge on.
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Today has not been a good day for football trading. I wonder how much of that is just variance after a really good spell, and how much is due to Covid.
Hi Dan, I've also had a good month trading so no doubt it's just variance... My SHG set & forget filter has just had bit of a wobble but before that it hit 30 games green.
Just ensure you measure and record all results and even trade results and then it should highlight all variance and you should know what to expect moving forward.
Out of interest what is your normal strike rate for the results in question?
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@dan-mackinnon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Today has not been a good day for football trading. I wonder how much of that is just variance after a really good spell, and how much is due to Covid.
are you checking the team news etc? if not this video should help:
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
For Saturday, 18th December
Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG):
12:30 - Middlesbrough v AFC Bournemouth
14:30 - Eintracht Frankfurt v Mainz 05
15:00 - Plymouth Argyle v Charlton Athletic
15:00 - Ipswich Town v SunderlandLay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG): - Results -
12:30 - Middlesbrough v AFC Bournemouth - HT: 0-0 / FT:1-0
14:30 - Eintracht Frankfurt v Mainz 05 - HT: 1-0 / FT: 1-0
15:00 - Plymouth Argyle v Charlton Athletic - HT: 1-0 / FT: 1-0
15:00 - Ipswich Town v Sunderland - HT: 1-0 / FT: 1-1Bad day at the office:
1/4 in the 1.5's
2/4 in the SHG
"..Joy cometh in the morning..."
