The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@waz this is very interesting thank you for sharing. Going to start gathering data for some ideas of my own with this. How are you exporting the ratings? I'm probably being dim but I can't find a function to export the data to csv
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@john-hurst Oh absolutely, it's definitely a low-stress strategy. The filters on the stats software provide plenty of trading opportunities. I see this more as a passive earner to compliment other selections
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@waz looking at your results i can see the high win rate so im thinking if you had backed from the off with a full stake it may average out your wins than say drip staking every game. A percentage of those matches would have had early goals and you will miss out on the pre-game odds as they get cut by half or more usually. I do like your system and if i could find one that worked long term without any real stress it would be ideal - this strategy is something to consider for sure.
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@john-hurst Absolutely, the idea is that I know that my selection criteria will produce a winner 92% of the time. So, when inplay, once the dominant teams starts putting on the pressure, providing their odds are greater than 1.10, I will start drip backing them to win outright. I only do a very small back from the off.
There have been many times where I've thought "no s**t, of course Liverpool were going to score within the first few minutes, they're playing West Ham at Anfield, I wish I started with a higher initial back bet" for example. It is better to aim for as high of a price as possible though, so drip backing during high-pressure points during a match will provide you better value. Even better when it's 0-0 at HT and the away team started the game better than the home, home odds can be anywhere from 1.3-.1.9.
Over a 4 month period, it usually averages out to watching/following along with one game per day with intent.
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@martin-futter said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Stats are back! I'll get the picks up in a bit
I've already posted the inplay winning team lays
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@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Todays SH Goal Watch
**Remember these are all watch games to suit in-play stats below or personal preference
**17:30 Eintracht Frankfurt v Schalke
17:30 Regensburg v Karlsruher
18:00 Degerfors v Brage
18:00 Elfsborg v Hammarby
18:00 Osters v Norrby
19:00 FC Copenhagen v Aalborg
19:30 Bayer Leverkusen v FC Koln
19:30 LASK Linz v Sturm Graz
19:30 Dortmund v 1. FSV Mainz 05
19:30 FC Augsburg v Hoffenheim
19:30 RB Leipzig v Dusseldorf
20:05 Osijek v GoricaLay next overs circa odds 3.5-3.0
Minimum Entry Stats;
0 Goals - 4 SOT plus good equal attacking intent
1 Goal - 7 SOT plus good equal attacking intent
1-1 - 7 SOT plus good equal attacking intent (same SOT as above but a good scoreline, although one of the most popular... Be wary!)
2-0 or 0-2 - No tradeMay update if some missing leagues return to stats software
Updated Due to Stats system update
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@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer youre not the only one who has had a dip, been quite few odd results of late
Yeah I know, but best way to right the slump is to make sure I'm concentrating solely on the trading rather than the updating here.
These games are all on my radar to back:
Nice odds on all, they're not duplicated with my ELO lays so perhaps gone under the radar. All teams that score in almost every game pitted against teams that frankly don't.
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@richard-latimer youre not the only one who has had a dip, been quite few odd results of late
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@waz you are backing favourites in play set to a criteria that suits you but you aren't trading out when they go 1-0 up? is that right? Also if you are backing favourites in play the odds wont shift much, would it not be better to just back from the off? I like simple methods, seems like you have got it sorted there mate.
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I'm going to concentrate on sorting my s**t out. Still going to post what's on my radar for transparency but after that I'm coming off until results known. Got to get a handle on things. Been pretty poor last 3 days apart from small red on one of those.
I did these yesterday and there were only 3:
I got rid of a few so when @Martin-Futter posts later or the email, beware Estonia, Poland 2 and Slovenia which I got rid of a while back on these.
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@martin-futter Just chiming in here about the Ratings filter. I'm not really an active contributor on the forums. One of the only reasons I'm still subscribed to BTC is actually due to the Ratings system. The cost of the membership is easily offset by the profit I am making using the data.
I'd just like to share my routine here, as well as some data.
Routine
I export the Ratings page as a .csv file
Save it as an .xlxs file
Run a few macros to calculate the ELO difference between the two teams and well as offensive/defensive statistics
Identify strong selections based on my personal criteriaData
I have attached a sample 1 month extract from before the lockdown to what my Ratings spreadsheet looks. Once I am at this point, I will then drill deeper into the games and move the data to another spreadsheet.
0_1592387420313_Pre-Covid 1 Month Ratings Sample.xlsx
Everyone on this forum loves goals, but for me what I have found is that trading the obvious is far less emotionally taxing. It is the trading style that works for me, as I know I've got the research to back up my hypothesis. As well as that, I've got time decay giving me a better price inplay.
I have been able to produce a system which has a strike rate of 92% based purely off the Ratings data. I do not lay the underdog, my approach to these games is my own. Hopefully it can give some members motivation to utilise that part of the website more.
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I'm going to concentrate on sorting my s**t out. Still going to post what's on my radar for transparency but after that I'm coming off until results known. Got to get a handle on things. Been pretty poor last 3 days apart from small red on one of those.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
sorted
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Yep.
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Alll seem to be on there now. Everyone else think the same?
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@richard-latimer nice one
will remove my post. -
@john-hurst said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@Ryan-Carruthers @Martin-Futter is there an issue with the software this morning? i have set up a filter that looks for home favourites with betfair odds under 2.4 but it doesnt show some of them- one of the matches being dortmund vs mains. Set to 20 matches played and current season so not sure why that wouldnt show up. Imagine there is more that arent there. Any clue whats going on? cheers
Yeah, they're on it John
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