The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@richard-latimer all the best mate
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@bottlabroon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@lee-woodman If it was the GP file (think I remember you saying you were a member) then the file layout changed dramatically in early 2019 when they incorporated all the LTA & LSM data. It was a nightmare integrating it so I just started to build a new dataset from that point as the older the data the less it's worth anyway (IMO).
Yea that’s the same one. Like I said I lost the file but was good for certain days analysis
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@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@lee-woodman even better!! What was your fav thing you did there?
The Empire State at night absolutely blew me away! Got engaged on Brooklyn promenade after walking across the bridge so that has to have a mention too!
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@lee-woodman even better!! What was your fav thing you did there?
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@lee-woodman If it was the GP file (think I remember you saying you were a member) then the file layout changed dramatically in early 2019 when they incorporated all the LTA & LSM data. It was a nightmare integrating it so I just started to build a new dataset from that point as the older the data the less it's worth anyway (IMO).
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Looking at Ankaragucu v Besiktas came up in a couple of FHG filters. Ankaragucu FH over 0.5 67%
Besiktas away over 0.5 FH 100% not seen a mention of this game. Looks good to me but I must be missing something obvious if someone could put me right as to why this isnt a good trade I would appreciate it as I hate making obvious mistakes cheers -
@bottlabroon that’s great, I used to have a similar database from 2013-2018 but lost the file last year
It’s great to have data like that, it helps you spot patterns and see intentions and outcomes in certain scenarios. Like you said it’s not to be used in isolation but very useful to build a picture
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@lee-woodman It covers 33,000 matches from the beginning of March 2019 when I had to restructure my database.
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@bottlabroon what sort of data range is this over? This is the kind of stuff I’m trying to record for my own stuff to build into the picture of the likelihood of certain scenarios playing out
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Merry Christmas all.....see you on the other side!
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Getting my ducks in a row nice and early otherwise I won't get chance:
Will potentially be looking at Aberdeen and Atl. MG for FH goal plays and the rest as SH plays. Prob leave Trabzon entirely. Don't like home dogs for FH goals and SH ave too low.
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As a follow up to my last post, this is the data for all leagues by scoreline at 75 mins for a late goal 75m+.
For clarification I don't use this data in isolation, the country and scoreline data forms part of a value algorithm with the individual team data. It should though provide food for thought for 0-0 late goal backers.Matches with a Home favourite
Matches with an Away favourite
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
No potential FH plays but depending on whether I get beaten down I may keep an eye on these for late goals. That said, Real Potosi and Blooming doesn't appear to be on so it's just the 3.
Ah right.....those 2 are tomorrow. Maybe if everyone has gone to bed haha!!
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@keith-anderson cheers Keith have a great Xmas
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I won't be around much the the next few days, but I just want to wish all BTC members, that celebrate this festive season, a very Happy Christmas. May this time of year bring you closer to your friends, family and your Moshiach (Messiah). Merry Christmas
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No potential FH plays but depending on whether I get beaten down I may keep an eye on these for late goals. That said, Real Potosi and Blooming doesn't appear to be on so it's just the 3.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
It's fluid but hopefully it will settle down over time. This is the latest results data I have my LTD strat I've been working on.
Leagues now excluded (for time being at least)
Azerbaijan
Chile Primera
Ecuador
Germany Bundesliga
Italy Serie A
Slovenia
Swiss Super (awful results in this one - another yesterday in Lugano which l'd luckily decided to avoid).Avoiding prohibitive odds (as per oddsportal.com).
0-0/1-1 HT scoreline or 0-1 and first SH goal coming 55mins or earlier to make it 1-1.
90.91% from 77 selections 60th min+
86.54% from 52 selections 70th min+I know it's not all about s/r, price must be equally important in this. I can't speak for the 60th minute as I've only been getting in 70th minute + at present but it's generally around evens. Sometimes a little more, sometimes a little less.
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@ryan-carruthers said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@lee-woodman did you spend the whole time in NY going that was in x film, that was in y film lol I know I did lol
one of the greatest places I’ve ever been loved it.Yes it was unreal, so many iconic places all in a small(ish) area. Best place I’ve ever been by a country mile
Managed to randomly get chatting to a guy in a small neighbourhood near Central Park....turned out the guy was a Liverpool fan. Of all the years to bump into that guy it was the one year that he could rip me as a united fan! Typical!
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@bottlabroon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Still a little more for me to track pre Christmas and in the case of Bolivia I will prob be all over this:
Game appears to be @ 21:15 rather than the time given.
Will be laying under 1.5 SH goals @ HT.
I've just been updating my databases Richard and based on the last 2 years data, Bolivia is the best league in the world for late goals (I class a late goal as 75mins+).
For anybody interested in a league by league analysis, the results are below. Have a great Christmas all and look forward to catching up on Boxing Day.
% of matches having a goal after 75 minutes
They score for fun there haha!
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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Still a little more for me to track pre Christmas and in the case of Bolivia I will prob be all over this:
Game appears to be @ 21:15 rather than the time given.
Will be laying under 1.5 SH goals @ HT.
I've just been updating my databases Richard and based on the last 2 years data, Bolivia is the best league in the world for late goals (I class a late goal as 75mins+).
For anybody interested in a league by league analysis, the results are below. Have a great Christmas all and look forward to catching up on Boxing Day.
% of matches having a goal after 75 minutes
