The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@kevyn-clark said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Does anybody know if Betfair normally suspend India Super league games, I have under 2.5 goals going and I can't cash out :frowning_face_with_open_mouth:
Recently they hardly have any let alone inplay
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@james-rome damn i wasn't expecting it to stay under 2.5 goals, that's probably my 50p down the spout
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@kevyn-clark said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Does anybody know if Betfair normally suspend India Super league games, I have under 2.5 goals going and I can't cash out :frowning_face_with_open_mouth:
leagues like that with low liquidity get suspended because betfair wont monitor them why i avoid and try and stick with main leagues top 2 in the main countires england,spain, italy etc
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Does anybody know if Betfair normally suspend India Super league games, I have under 2.5 goals going and I can't cash out :frowning_face_with_open_mouth:
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@richard-latimer oh yeah. I'm glad one of us is paying attention! When I typed it I did think that is actually pretty good because stats suggest it should be around 47%.
@Stuart-Wallace I was wrong, it needs to be 6 out of 10 over 2.5.
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Who even gives a fishes tit about internationals anymore haha
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@keith-anderson ffs
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Another international break at the end of January! Jesus, it's awful and will probably have an impact in the '3 Club'. Less matches to trade etc. The proposal for the World Cup to be played every two years must not happen!
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@dan-mackinnon not laying 2.6. that would be the opposite.
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@stuart-wallace out of interest I just put this game through my model and it reckons Over 2.5 is 49% probability (odds including bookmakers round should be 2.18 for the backing of over 2.5 so 51% implied probability of Under 2.5 odds should be 2.11 with bookmakers round ) if you are laying under 2.5 in your favour is that chance of FHG is 91% decent stat if you are looking to green up after a goal.
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@stuart-wallace said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Fulham v Birmingham tonight.
Fulham scoring goals for fun - 2.6 for Lay U2.5 - good value?2.6 is an implied probability of 38.5%. So if this scenario was run 10 times you'll need 3+ goals 4 out of 10 times.
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@stuart-wallace 4 out of 6 of their last games went under 2.5
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@stuart-wallace said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Fulham v Birmingham tonight.
Fulham scoring goals for fun - 2.6 for Lay U2.5 - good value?My word of caution would be what comes up must come down. Not looked at it myself but I'd be looking at the averages. If they are crazy high then either they come out flying and you see a ton of goals again or they have one of the those nights which can befall any team.
A return to the mean is something which I don't believe is explored enough.
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@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@dave-hayes yep, i get it now. 10% per month is a reasonable goal
Sorry for any confusion Matey, you must have thought I was on Planet Zog!!
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Fulham v Birmingham tonight.
Fulham scoring goals for fun - 2.6 for Lay U2.5 - good value? -
@dave-hayes yep, i get it now. 10% per month is a reasonable goal
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@martin-walker said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@dave-hayes do you mean you want to make 10% of your bank on a trade as profit
No not of bank Martin, sorry I realise what I wrote, no not of bank, but 10% profit on the trading stake of a particular match. So if it was a £7 Trade which is 3% of my current bank balance, then as a minimum on a LTD/ FHG It would be nice to see a £0.70p profit as a minimum
Doing this, I would like to see a 10% Increase in my Bank over the course of the month, which would be good.
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@martin said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@dave-hayes yep you hit the nail on the head there, it's gets the trader thinking more in terms of percentages rather than amount of money. We all use different bank sizes so just saying 'I made £100 today' doesn't really tell the story of how much of an achievement that is but the points system means we know how well we are doing relative to our bankroll.
It made absolute sense thanks Martin
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@dave-hayes do you mean you want to make 10% of your bank on a trade as profit
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@dave-hayes yep you hit the nail on the head there, it's gets the trader thinking more in terms of percentages rather than amount of money. We all use different bank sizes so just saying 'I made £100 today' doesn't really tell the story of how much of an achievement that is but the points system means we know how well we are doing relative to our bankroll.
