The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
3% Club - Wednesday, 19th January 2022 (Day 14)
With Lille 3-0 up approachig HT, I won't be looking for a SHG.
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A decent day.
Green (albeit I gave half away) on Volos game
Green on Fenerbache and doubled up with match odds trade
Green on O1.5 Toulouse -
@kevyn-clark said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Anybody trading the Fenerbahce vs Altay game? I kind of feel Fenerbache are going to get an equalizer possibly, they have more possession and playing at home being a goal down...
This was on my lay the underdog filter , Unfortunately missed out on this match bloody work getting in the way !!
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@kevyn-clark I'm leaving my match odds trade in expecting another goal. Danger is to my trade that Altay have looked threatening... so I'll have my finger hovering over the button to get out just in case
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@kevyn-clark Its a decision to either use the green or move on, as I proved earlier it can ago against you but as long as their is solid rationale behind your decision then I dont think you can beat yourself up either way, even if you would have backed it but didnt and it happens, I think thats a positive long term.. if.. and this is the thing, you were going to back it for the right reasons.
So today, I invested half my green on the match in Greece because it felt like value at the odds based on my stats.. Didnt happen but im ok with that
Just now I reinvested it based on Fernebache being odds of 1.33 pre match and my model saying the opposition should have been longer odds than 9.5 (I had them at 12 ish) so it seemed like a decent way to use the green.
Equally sometimes it can be much better to move on, especially on busy days because I've found to my cost if you spend too much time looking for another trade then they can go horribly wrong.
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@mark-maguire lay 1-1??
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@mark-maguire Nice! I backed over 0.5 goals FH and that came in so that was good but I wasn't smart enough to take that green and place it on Fenerbache.
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@kevyn-clark Just saw this post - I greened up on the 1st goal and then put the green on Ferenbache match odds as they were strong favs pre match
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and there goes the equalizer 1-1 should have trusted my gut
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Anybody trading the Fenerbahce vs Altay game? I kind of feel Fenerbache are going to get an equalizer possibly, they have more possession and playing at home being a goal down...
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Goal on 23 mins after second stake, took green and reintroduced half of it as odds still out at 1.6 for O2.5
Not to be .. note to self dont get greedy.. counter argument to self.. felt like value.. move on
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@stuart-wallace two games against Chesterfield will be huge and tough away game at Dagenham next - in that league winning the games you are expected to at places like Dagenham, Boreham Wood, Bromley are the biggest challenge for the likes of Stockport , Wrexham, Chesterfield and Notts County - watch who gets results in those kind of fixtures and it will tell you whose got to grips with the mentality to succeed in what is a very difficult league
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@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace on fire they are.. I think they've a chance of winning the league
By March !!
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@kevyn-clark This is where the what has to happen question works wonders as it allows you to think about the trade objectively.
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Trades for me today are:
Over 2.5 (split stake, out after 60 mins if no goals regardless)
Volos vs Smyrnis
O2.5% 71% (1.52 incl bookmakers round) O1.5 89% (1.21) FHG 97% (1.10)
Projected score 3-1
I will trade this semi aggressively - always monitoring inplay stats for third and fourth drip
Poss trade of correct score . With home favourite quite strong adds to reason to trade.Fenerbache also comes up on filter but caution for me, monitor in play.
O2.5 59% O1.5 82% FHG 92%
in favour of trade are FHG % and Home Odds, against are 02.5 and O1.5% .. Home odds strong. Interestingly on this filter for Turkey 67% of goals scored in first half hour then only 7% scored between 30 and 60 mins, so strong argument to have small stake at start and 15 mins and then remove sometime after 30 mins unless inplay stats suggest otherwiseFinally one on my 01.5
Toulouse vs Nancy
89% O1.5 (1.21) will wait for 1.3 and trade based on strong home fav and projected score 3-1. -
@dave-hayes thank you that is good advice I will look into that, a couple of times I have ducked out early generally in the unders markets more than overs and could have stayed in longer and made better returns.
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@kevyn-clark said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@thomas-larsen I had a little dabble in under 2.5 goals as my filter showed very few goals scored in the first 20 mins, I ducked out for a 10% ROI at 15 mins, I was going to stay in longer but lots of attempts on goal and got nervous, hopefully the 2nd half will be busy with lots of goals!
Hey Kev, I can relate to the Nervy bit, must be something we go through coming in here and learning it properly. I have ducked out of a few trades in the early days, getting a bit nervy and thinking is this going to happen, come on score, you know that type of thing.
What helped me get over it was Matt Ayres FHG and also creating my own Filter for a LTD / FHG because I had decided from looking at my paper stats that I like trading that way.
The other thing that is greatly helping when nerves do strike is the stats software, while it might sound a bit tedious, I look at the potential trades, then write down the stats I want from the games I want to trade which gives me a better picture of what I want to do
That might help a little, be it I am far from the finished article with trading of course
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@thomas-larsen I had a little dabble in under 2.5 goals as my filter showed very few goals scored in the first 20 mins, I ducked out for a 10% ROI at 15 mins, I was going to stay in longer but lots of attempts on goal and got nervous, hopefully the 2nd half will be busy with lots of goals!
