The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@mick-mcmahon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@andy-donnelly said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson Is there a reason you lay u1.5 rather than back o1.5?
I back the overs so just double-checking I’m not missing a trick or whether it’s just personal preference
Good question Andy, i have wondered this too - much less liability doing the Back option !
Its a general question from me really in as much as it seems most traders on here prefer to lay rather than Back - just wondered what the reason is but have been too stupid to ask
Spouting random (but not a million miles off) numbers, I'd thought about this too and I think it's a bit swings and roundabouts.
laying odds of 3.2 with £4 would win you £4 or lose you £12.8
backing odds of 1.3 with £12 would win you £3.60 or lose you £12so laying is easier if you come from "i want to earn £4 from this trade" were as backing is easier from "I want to risk £12 on this trade"
Following Keith's (he'll be changing his name soon) 3% club, the idea is to earn 3% on a trade. Working out 3% of you bank and laying it is easier than working out 3% of your bank divided by odds minus 1 multiplied by 300 (for 3%)
Doesnt matter if you back or lay it depends on your bank roll mangement. I do overs but i back O1.5 with point i could lay but if i do i often have a few trades on so say on a saturday i could have 10 trades. With backing if i lose worst case would be -10 points. If i was to lay at odds of 4.0 worse case could be -30.0 Points. I back as if i lose i find i mentally better to deal with and doint tie up to much liability
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@mick-mcmahon Yeah, but no, but.... (forgetting the Keith wanting 3 per cent) Most traders on here do lays (LTD,LCS,LU1.5), not many traders talk about Backing a situation (though i've seen it occasionally (but not as much as Lay) on the Cricket thread)
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@mick-mcmahon said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Spouting random (but not a million miles off) numbers, I'd thought about this too and I think it's a bit swings and roundabouts.
laying odds of 3.2 with £4 would win you £4 or lose you £12.8
backing odds of 1.3 with £12 would win you £3.60 or lose you £12
so laying is easier if you come from "i want to earn £4 from this trade" were as backing is easier from "I want to risk £12 on this trade"
Following Keith's (he'll be changing his name soon) 3% club, the idea is to earn 3% on a trade. Working out 3% of you bank and laying it is easier than working out 3% of your bank divided by odds minus 1 multiplied by 300 (for 3%)This answer is very helpful and it kind of confirms what my own thinking was, because I had been wondering about it and was going to ask the question, but this answer makes a lot of sense.
From the trading point of view, I prefer the Goals strategy, slightly more than LTD which I do like, but with the Goals strat, as long as the trades are carefully picked, then you are only expecting 1 goal to be scored, with either team being in the equation which makes cashing out less restrictive because you have two teams who can score, compared to the LTD option, when you are hoping that the Fave scores first.
Most of us have had the Dog score first, when we were not expecting it.
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@stuart-wallace said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@andy-donnelly said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson Is there a reason you lay u1.5 rather than back o1.5?
I back the overs so just double-checking I’m not missing a trick or whether it’s just personal preference
Good question Andy, i have wondered this too - much less liability doing the Back option !
Its a general question from me really in as much as it seems most traders on here prefer to lay rather than Back - just wondered what the reason is but have been too stupid to askSpouting random (but not a million miles off) numbers, I'd thought about this too and I think it's a bit swings and roundabouts.
laying odds of 3.2 with £4 would win you £4 or lose you £12.8
backing odds of 1.3 with £12 would win you £3.60 or lose you £12so laying is easier if you come from "i want to earn £4 from this trade" were as backing is easier from "I want to risk £12 on this trade"
Following Keith's (he'll be changing his name soon) 3% club, the idea is to earn 3% on a trade. Working out 3% of you bank and laying it is easier than working out 3% of your bank
divided by odds minus 1 multiplied by 300 (for 3%)
case-in-point -
@andy-donnelly said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson Is there a reason you lay u1.5 rather than back o1.5?
I back the overs so just double-checking I’m not missing a trick or whether it’s just personal preference
Good question Andy, i have wondered this too - much less liability doing the Back option !
Its a general question from me really in as much as it seems most traders on here prefer to lay rather than Back - just wondered what the reason is but have been too stupid to ask -
@keith-anderson Is there a reason you lay u1.5 rather than back o1.5?
I back the overs so just double-checking I’m not missing a trick or whether it’s just personal preference
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@mick-mcmahon There is on here: https://forum.betfairtradingcommunity.com/topic/2776/how-to-build-your-own-strategy
If you get stuck with your filter you can ask on the private coaching too bud and we will most likely drop on and sort for you.
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3% Club - Thursday, 20th January 2022 - (Day 15)
Day 15 Target: £155.72
Opening Balance: £189.70
No trades today. We are at the halfway stage of trading and the balance is £189.70. We still have 14 days left to try and hit that £200 target.
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@keith-anderson Thanks Keith.
One more thing, if you were trading it, then you would only need one goal is that right to cash out, or two?
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@dave-hayes said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Only because the 1.5's fit my lifestyle better. I have an 11 year old daughter that I taxi about everywhere! I only trade using my mobile phone, so the 1.5's are set and forget. I've no problem with LTD, it provided me with an income, but I had a lot more free time a few years ago.
Thanks Keith, so to confirm do you Back or Lay in 1.5's please, its just so as I know which one to consider for my own strat
I lay Under 1.5 Goals
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Only because the 1.5's fit my lifestyle better. I have an 11 year old daughter that I taxi about everywhere! I only trade using my mobile phone, so the 1.5's are set and forget. I've no problem with LTD, it provided me with an income, but I had a lot more free time a few years ago.
Thanks Keith, so to confirm do you Back or Lay in 1.5's please, its just so as I know which one to consider for my own strat
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@dave-hayes said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Keith this is very helpful my friend and makes total sense to me. Thanks for sharing it.
One question I have for you, why did you stop LTD and move to the OV 1.5 Goals Market.
I've been reading your blog, but it doesn't explain why
Only because the 1.5's fit my lifestyle better. I have an 11 year old daughter that I taxi about everywhere! I only trade using my mobile phone, so the 1.5's are set and forget. I've no problem with LTD, it provided me with an income, but I had a lot more free time a few years ago.
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@dave-hayes
thanks Dave -
Afternoon all,
I was wondering if there is a specific thread for the Back a late goal any score line! Members filter? And if so could anyone tell me where it is? I am interested in taking it on.
Also, is anyone trading this on a regular basis at this time, and how is it performing? Do you follow the strategy rules to the letter or trade out at 80-85 mins for example?
Thanks.
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@stuart-wallace it's a one time payment of £147
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@thomas-larsen said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@keith-anderson How did you stop blowing banks? (asking for a friend)
He still blows yanks. Oh sorry you are talking about trading my bad
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@dave-hayes said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@stuart-wallace said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Tried getting on to the Academy, but said invalid email address. Have emailed the guys at BTC.
I initially tried that, but realised that its for paid members only, as in you have to buy it. I stupidly thought it was part of the months subscription as it wasn't that clear.
Ah, thats probably why then. There doesnt seem to be a mention of how much etc?
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@stuart-wallace said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Tried getting on to the Academy, but said invalid email address. Have emailed the guys at BTC.
I initially tried that, but realised that its for paid members only, as in you have to buy it. I stupidly thought it was part of the months subscription as it wasn't that clear.
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@mark-maguire said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@Dave-Hayes For what its worth I think its a must. I went through every lesson and the base it has given me and even the discipline of going through have been fundamental to my progress so far
Tried getting on to the Academy, but said invalid email address. Have emailed the guys at BTC.
