The BTC Football Trading Thread

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@terry-cooke said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

LCS St Gallen 1.4

Nailed it

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LCS St Gallen 1.4

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SHG Villarreal

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@lee-woodman said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

Regensburg O0.5 at 1.4

Still no shots on target in the 2nd half, gonna leave it and reevaluate at 74 mins

Richard Latimer

LCS Villarreal 3-0
LCS Alanyaspor 4-1

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Regensburg O0.5 at 1.4

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

LCS Hamburg 0-1

Forgot to remove notifications but it seems I may not need to.

Richard Latimer

LCS Hamburg 0-1

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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@terry-cooke said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

LCS 2-0 AZ

Looks like you got ya goal

Really haha?

Awesome that worked. Zero stress haha!

Absolutely ha ha. I had this morning off any trading and going food shopping now and then going to look at what potential games there are this afternoon.

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@terry-cooke said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

LCS 2-0 AZ

Looks like you got ya goal

Really haha?

Awesome that worked. Zero stress haha!

Richard Latimer

@terry-cooke said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

LCS 2-0 AZ

Looks like you got ya goal

Really haha?

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@richard-latimer said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

LCS 2-0 AZ

Looks like you got ya goal

liam willis

@Martin totally agree ive been testing a strategy for 8 months now with just over 1400 games, every month has been profitable on paper, i started trading real money at the start at feb and it is on a losing run for the month, im not worried this is just variance, but how many people have ditched a profitable strat for this very reason. If you believe in your strategy then go with it and drop the stakes if you have to.

Richard Latimer

I've realised I need to go back to removing notifications as soon as I enter a trade. There is literally no advantage to watching over the whole 2nd half and it's way more stressful than trying to forget about it entirely until the. 90 are up.

Richard Latimer

LCS 2-0 AZ

Akiva Anderson

Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG):

12:30 - Hamburger SV v Werder Bremen
14:00 - Clermont v Bordeaux
14:05 - Hellas Verona v Venezia
15:00 - Viborg v København
15:15 - Sevilla v Real Betis

Sean Fitzgerald

@alan-steward said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:

I suspect these end of month losing streaks could actually hit at any time during a trading month.

Thanks Alan. I agree! It’s just the way it’s fallen for me the last 2 months that is has been the final 3 days of the month. Losing days are part and parcel of the game. Zoom out to 6 months of results and it becomes somewhat irrelevant.

Richard Latimer

@martin wow....60%??? That's impressive for an industry that eats people up and spits them out!

Last 2 weeks have been annoying but not had a losing month since Sept and this one isn't yet either.

Martin

@alan-steward good analysis there, it can happen at any time, variance is a bitch it doesn't choose to exist at only the times you wish it to.

I also think it's a mindset thing for many, statistically speaking if your strategy has an edge then you should keep trading with that edge, if you end up wiping some profits then it's either just variance or the strategy doesn't actually have an edge.

Take Matt's under 2.5 goals strategy that I have been testing, 24pts up over 500 games without any filtering to sort leagues or prices yet. During this month it has two runs of ten losses in a row. How many people would be able to handle this? How many people would throw in the towel at 7 or 8 in a row?

We know from our survey that 60% of you are profitable now since joining, that's up from 15% at the point of signing up. So whilst that is great and far and away above the industry norm, that still leaves 40% who aren't so we will always get posts like that.

We want to push that figure up to 100% and that is why I have had this idea of collaborative working.

I think variance acceptance is something you have to train hard at, it took me a long time but once you do this for years you realise it is all part of the game. Think of it like your team losing at football and going on a bad run, this happens even to the biggest and best clubs in the world, does that mean they are bad clubs or won't ever have any future success? Of course not and it is the same with trading.

Ryan

@andrew-camp it’s bloody entertaining to watch isn’t it!