The BTC Football Trading Thread
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@stuart-capstick said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
I'd say the turbulence experienced over the last two weeks is simply reversion to the mean.
From about November onwards, goals were raining in. Just look at La Liga 2, normally home of the 1-0, 0-0: results like 2-3 etc.
We are now seeing a return to average after a period of positive variance.
Things will pick up again in April and especially May (end of season crucial games).
That's exactly what I mean. When averages get too high you're looking for them coming down.
What goes up and all that.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
I'd say the turbulence experienced over the last two weeks is simply reversion to the mean.
From about November onwards, goals were raining in. Just look at La Liga 2, normally home of the 1-0, 0-0: results like 2-3 etc.
We are now seeing a return to average after a period of positive variance.
Things will pick up again in April and especially May (end of season crucial games).
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@chris-osborne said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@andy-donnelly interesting for me Bundesliga 2 has always been a complete nightmare ranks alongside all the main leagues second tiers especially the Championship for uselessness.
Bundesliga has generally been pretty good but when Leipzig are in a goalless draw you know it’s a bad few days
The only reason I didn't hit that game is they had a huge ave 2nd half goals which I find to be just as much of a red flag as a low average.
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@andy-donnelly Bayern been a bit rubbish lately also
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@chris-osborne Yeh Bundesliga 2 has been pretty good to me until recently, maybe I’ll keep an eye on that one in case I’ve just been on a good run with that one.
The Bundesliga has hit me hard, Dortmund have had a few low scoring games of late as well. That could be put down to Haaland’s injury problems tho!
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@andy-donnelly interesting for me Bundesliga 2 has always been a complete nightmare ranks alongside all the main leagues second tiers especially the Championship for uselessness.
Bundesliga has generally been pretty good but when Leipzig are in a goalless draw you know it’s a bad few days
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Been doing a bit of a deep data dive on the last few weeks as like many here, it’s been pretty horrendous. What’s interesting is the vast majority of the downturn (on my filters anyway) can be attributed to the top two German leagues.
Over the last 3-4 months these leagues were the best performing, hitting a 90% per cent SR but have both been down at around 50% in recent weeks. Yes I’ve had losses on other leagues as well but the Germany factor has turned a profitable month into an almost certain losing one.
Anyone aware of any reason why this may have happened or do we just put this down to a nasty slice of negative variance?
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG):
19:45 - Plymouth Argyle v Cheltenham Town
CAUTION You may want to back Under 1.5 Goals. Currently have equalled my worst losing run (4).
But surely that means this one is a guaranteed winner? @Martin did a really interesting podcast about the Martingale system and how you can win all your money back
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Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG):
19:45 - Plymouth Argyle v Cheltenham Town
CAUTION You may want to back Under 1.5 Goals. Currently have equalled my worst losing run (4).
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@stuart-wallace said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
@terry-cooke said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Crazy in Peru tonight
0'0 at half time !
I know, its nuts, you should have seen the own goal from Sport Huancayo, massive deflection
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@chris-osborne ha ha ha yup
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@terry-cooke So thats where this weekends missing goals ended up
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Crazy in Peru tonight
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had a punt on LTD on Tenerife v Almeria , and came up with small green .
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Oh man, that game came up on the filter I'm using for the 300 bet challenge. Maybe its time you switched to unders
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@keith-anderson said in The BTC Football Trading Thread:
Lay Under 1.5 Goals (Expect a SHG):
19:45 - Colchester v Forest Green
Got to take yesterdays defeat on the chin and move on.
F**k me! Can’t buy a win here. Great first half, but no shots on target in the second half
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@matt-wood I always look for 90% but it's always about average odds on the winners
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@ian-wylie it's worth recording goal times as you can evaluate various strats/systems on any filter
